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My complete 2007 Strength of Schedule for Defenses!

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My complete 2007 Strength of Schedule for Defenses!

Postby bagobonez » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:24 pm

http://www.ffauthority.com/modules/spotlight/item.php?itemid=51

Take a second to look, I spent alot of time on it! Thanks!
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Re: My complete 2007 Strength of Schedule for Defenses!

Postby knapplc » Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:29 pm

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this actually lends credence to the notion that the Bears might be a pretty good Defense this year, no?
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Re: My complete 2007 Strength of Schedule for Defenses!

Postby bagobonez » Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:49 pm

knapplc wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but this actually lends credence to the notion that the Bears might be a pretty good Defense this year, no?

Indeed it does! :-b
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Re: My complete 2007 Strength of Schedule for Defenses!

Postby chidoy » Tue Jul 31, 2007 11:07 pm

Looks good. Nice work! keep it up. Could provide very useful when going with my D. Thanks!
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Re: My complete 2007 Strength of Schedule for Defenses!

Postby bagobonez » Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:34 pm

Doing this research reminded me of a strategy footballguys suggest, and that's defense by committee. THey suggest drafting Miami's and Denver's defenses, because between the two teams they have very favorable matchups for nearly every week of the season.

I did a little research of my own and also came to the conclusion that you can throw PIttsburgh's defense in that mix as well. Any combination of Pittsburgh, Miami and Denver has pretty favorable matchups all year, except Pit and Miami have the same bye week I believe.
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Re: My complete 2007 Strength of Schedule for Defenses!

Postby eaglesrule » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:19 pm

Personally, (and I don't care if I get pilloried for this) I think "defense by committee" is a very worthwhile use of roster spots. For all the committees out there, I think that one is one of the more predictable ones, PROVIDED you have a good handle on who the good offenses are, and who is going to be somewhat steady in terms of production. A LOT can change, which is why I think a lot of people shy away from Ds early, or even midpoint at the draft, and I don't really have a beef with that, as I generally don't feel like parsing all of the variables that really do into it.

But, I do think that a lot of people think "oh, I'll save on QBs and play matchups, that's how I'll use a roster spot." And that can be wise, but personally, I think the same thing that keeps people from picking a D earlier than normal should be the thing that tempers this instinct. It's hard to pick Ds and how they will produce, as a lot of it has to do with how units shape up, and how the game-to-game tactics shape up. On the other hand, it seems to me that its harder for an "O" to come from no where compared to a "D." That being said, as long as you don't leverage yourself in the draft, and pay darn close attention early in the year, I think that using to roster spots on defenses-who has a schedule that roughly "synchs"--can be well worth someone's effort. If you key into a good defense, you can count on it more than a lot of wrs and tes in my experience. Even more so if you play the DST format. Even if the defense stinks, it will be kicked to a lot, so if a team has a good returner, and gambles a lot, you can be very well rewarded.

While anyone who knows me here knows that while football is my preferred spectator sport, I prefer fantasy baseball for its strategy. But I think the team defense element of FBB adds a nice bit to the game, because its not often that you can predictably tap into essentially "free" stud production in FBB like you can with team defense in fantasy.

I'm not sure where I stand on the overall issue here, as we know that baltimore and some others will produce where they should be drafted, yet we also know there can be values every year in defense that don't necessarily exist in other positions. But, judging from these rankings, if you are fine with taking a really valued d in the middle rounds, and a team such as the redskins or something based upon offseason moves, the real beggining of the campbell era, and their need to slow games with the portis/betts combo, the latter pick might offset taking some WR who doesn't pan out. (This was just a rough example without pouring over these rankings). I wish more strategy and discussion was centered around this, because I think everyone knows who the usual suspects are in qb, rb, and wr, and conventional wisdom tends (in my opinion) to not deviate THAT much in the grand scheme of things, and we all know you can't predict kickers. Well, it seems to me that team D while variable, is worthy of exploration, as your D strategy might separate you.
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Re: My complete 2007 Strength of Schedule for Defenses!

Postby bagobonez » Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:16 pm

eaglesrule wrote:Personally, (and I don't care if I get pilloried for this) I think "defense by committee" is a very worthwhile use of roster spots. For all the committees out there, I think that one is one of the more predictable ones, PROVIDED you have a good handle on who the good offenses are, and who is going to be somewhat steady in terms of production. A LOT can change, which is why I think a lot of people shy away from Ds early, or even midpoint at the draft, and I don't really have a beef with that, as I generally don't feel like parsing all of the variables that really do into it.

But, I do think that a lot of people think "oh, I'll save on QBs and play matchups, that's how I'll use a roster spot." And that can be wise, but personally, I think the same thing that keeps people from picking a D earlier than normal should be the thing that tempers this instinct. It's hard to pick Ds and how they will produce, as a lot of it has to do with how units shape up, and how the game-to-game tactics shape up. On the other hand, it seems to me that its harder for an "O" to come from no where compared to a "D." That being said, as long as you don't leverage yourself in the draft, and pay darn close attention early in the year, I think that using to roster spots on defenses-who has a schedule that roughly "synchs"--can be well worth someone's effort. If you key into a good defense, you can count on it more than a lot of wrs and tes in my experience. Even more so if you play the DST format. Even if the defense stinks, it will be kicked to a lot, so if a team has a good returner, and gambles a lot, you can be very well rewarded.

While anyone who knows me here knows that while football is my preferred spectator sport, I prefer fantasy baseball for its strategy. But I think the team defense element of FBB adds a nice bit to the game, because its not often that you can predictably tap into essentially "free" stud production in FBB like you can with team defense in fantasy.

I'm not sure where I stand on the overall issue here, as we know that baltimore and some others will produce where they should be drafted, yet we also know there can be values every year in defense that don't necessarily exist in other positions. But, judging from these rankings, if you are fine with taking a really valued d in the middle rounds, and a team such as the redskins or something based upon offseason moves, the real beggining of the campbell era, and their need to slow games with the portis/betts combo, the latter pick might offset taking some WR who doesn't pan out. (This was just a rough example without pouring over these rankings). I wish more strategy and discussion was centered around this, because I think everyone knows who the usual suspects are in qb, rb, and wr, and conventional wisdom tends (in my opinion) to not deviate THAT much in the grand scheme of things, and we all know you can't predict kickers. Well, it seems to me that team D while variable, is worthy of exploration, as your D strategy might separate you.


I agree. Those who drafted the Ravens D last year were obviously well rewarded, but I wonder if someone who played good matchups each week wouldn't have scored more total points out of their "DST" position than someone who played the Ravens every single week?

I'm going to put it to the test this year and take Miami's D and either Denver or Pittsburgh and play the matchups. By season's end I'm going to tally how many points I got out of my D's for the season and compare the total fantasy points scored with whoever the top fantasy defense turns out to be. SHould be interesting. I think the biggest reason to do this strategy is that you can get these lesser tier defenses (like miami, denver and pittsburgh) a few rounds after the defenses like Chicago, Baltimore, San Diego and New England. Yes, you have to spend an extra roster spot, but it's well worth it if your defense dominates every week. To me that's much more valuable than having another backup RB that sits on your bench anyway.
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Re: My complete 2007 Strength of Schedule for Defenses!

Postby eaglesrule » Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:45 pm

well ..
Bag I got to tell you, your team affiliation irritates me a lot ...

But again, I agree. You can't (well, not always) get a RB who could ascend to stud status late like you can with a D. And yes, Ds change, and they change a lot. But they are also based on an aggregate rather than one guy. A QB is dependent (fantasy wise) on his receives and philosophy, et al. But defenses can be big scorers, and people dissect every ounce of offenses in fantasy, but a d could easily be worth a stud WR, but people pay it no mind.
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Re: My complete 2007 Strength of Schedule for Defenses!

Postby ttwarrior1 » Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:46 pm

couldn't read it , wasnt in right order and didnt make sense, and way off from what i see
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Re: My complete 2007 Strength of Schedule for Defenses!

Postby bagobonez » Thu Aug 02, 2007 6:05 pm

ttwarrior1 wrote:couldn't read it , wasnt in right order and didnt make sense, and way off from what i see


#1, i explain what the tables mean very clearly. If you still can't grasp it, that's your bad.

#2, this is not an "opinionated" article. These are raw stats taken from last year and projected onto this year's schedules. Obviously you did not take the time to read it.
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