It looks like there's a pretty consistent first tier: Smith, CJ, TO, Harrison, Wayne and Holt. Normally I avoid a stud WR in my auction, preferring to spend my money on depth at the position, but this year I think it may be in my interest to pay for one of these guys.
Wayne and Smith have been kept, leaving CJ, TO, Holt and Harrison. Of these four, who can I have the most faith in? If I make a big investment in a top WR, it had better pay off. In my eyes, CJ and TO have too many questions- CJ's inconsistency and TO's immaturity. Harrison is Mr. Consistent, but doesn't he have to get old sometime? I could see paying for Holt, but I recall a lot of frustration with him around here last year for some reason.
Can I expect one of these guys to produce consistently next year or should I go back to my usual approach?
For example: a) Holt $37 + Edwards $12 + Clayton $12 + V. Jackson $8 + Curry $2 = $71 or b) Fitz $26 + Housh $26 + Clayton $12 + V. Jackson $8 = $72
I personally think that it's suicide in an auction this year not to grab one of the top tier WRs. I'd still say CJ is the best, mainly because of the loss of Chris Henry for half the season (which should up his TD totals). If you wanna be safe though than grab Harrison.
Looking at your dollar values, I'd much rather take option a, but instead of Edwards/VJax/Curry, you have 20-22 bucks to upgrade at second WR. (Plus Clayton usually goes for like 5-8 bucks).
Thanks for the input. Dollar values are always hard to estimate in my league ($150 salary cap- I should've mentioned that), so I used the values spent in the last two years along with my projections for this year to determine.
It sounds like you're recommending something like this:
One thing I'm thinking about is the depth at WR- there are quite a few WR3s/low WR2s at the point in the auction where prices start to drop (i.e. Branch, Edwards, Clayton, VJax) that I think could put up numbers similar to those above them who may cost $10 more (Ward, Buress, A. Johnson). If I can get Clayton and Edwards for the same price as Boldin, I'm not getting a "sure thing," but I've filled two roster spots for the price of one, and if either of them breaks out, I'm fine. If they both break out, I'm golden.
$150!!! Wow your dollar values are high. How big is the league??
In my $200 league Holt goes for about 30-34.
I would do something like this (approximate dollar values based on experience/average with a bit taken off cause of $150 cap) TO/Wayne 24-27 - Plax/Moss/Driver 14-19 - Edwards/Chambers 7-11 - Clayton 4-6 = around $55
All the dollar values you have are higher than the average values in $200 leagues. I think you need to rework your values.
Prices usually get inflated more than usual in my league, due partly to overambitious players, but also to money saved on keepers (I suppose).
Here are some prices from LAST YEAR: CJ $42 Harrison $38 Holt $36 Fitz $35 DJax$28 Buress $26 Housh $24 Driver $23 Walker $23 Coles $22 A. Johnson $17 Glenn $15 Branch $12 R. Brown $10 Hell, Eric Moulds went for $7.
We keep three with a 10% raise, and most guys hold their RBs, meaning money saved on RBs is spent on WRs. This year, the remaining of the top 25 RBs look like this: LT, SA, McGahee, Edge, Benson, T Jones, Lynch, Jacobs, D. Williams. Otherwise, everybody's kept, and mostly all at a bargain (Henry $2, Parker $5, Gore $19, Maroney $9, SJax $11, LJ $9, etc.)
Thanks for the help. It's a 12 team league with no PPR. I've elected to keep Palmer, Gore and Portis, meaning I need to spend wisely at WR while holding onto $ for Betts.
I would personally try to target some of the "lesser" top WRs and grab more of them than necessarily going after some of those big names this year. I'd be targetting guys like Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Donald Driver, Marques Colston, Andre Johnson, and Javon Walker. I think I'd rather have a couple of those guys than 1 big receiver and a much weaker #2 because of cap restraints.
If you're set on grabbing one of those guys though, I'd go with Harrison or Holt without a doubt. Like you alluded to, CJ was far too inconsistent last year and people have shown stats that actually do say that Henry being gone ended up helping Housh more than CJ when he was unable to play last year so not sure about the "Henry being gone helps CJ" argument. CJ sees all the double teams and most of the attention from the opposing defenses, I think you get just about the same production from Housh but at a much lesser price. I think TO just has far too many risks attached to really want him bad enough to pay what it'll take to get him.
Personally, I'd go for a couple of the guys in that next group and see if you can get some of them for lesser prices while everyone else goes after the big guns.
mattb47 wrote:I would personally try to target some of the "lesser" top WRs and grab more of them than necessarily going after some of those big names this year.
That's what I did last year. I planned on getting a stud, but was scared away by the price inflation. I picked up Walker $23, Driver $23 and Mason $17, with Edwards $1. Mason bombed, but Walker and Driver were huge parts in my championship team.