RB Rankings for PPR (with projections)

[biju]

I've seen a number of rankings for RBs but none seem to be for leagues that are PPR. I have two leagues that do point per reception so I decided to whip up some numbers myself and rank them. This is my first "real" attempt at doing projections so you'll have to give me your opinion on these numbers. Don't worry, I won't be offended if you think they aren't too good.

The scoring is standard: 1 pt per 10 yards rush/receiving, 6 pts per TD, plus 1 pt per reception.

Code: Select all

Rank  Name                 RuYds   RuTDs  Rec   RecYds  RecTDs  Fum   Pts/G
1     LaDainian Tomlinson  1584    23     53    445     4       2     25.84
2     Steven Jackson       1462    12     70    560     2       3     21.89
3     Larry Johnson        1435    14     35    350     2       2     19.09
4     Brian Westbrook      968     8      70    651     4       2     18.74
5     Reggie Bush          805     6      90    765     2       2     18.16
6     Joseph Addai         1290    10     50    400     1       2     17.56
7     Frank Gore           1453    8      45    360     1       4     17.02
8     Shaun Alexander      1419    15     20    120     1       3     16.49
9     Willie Parker        1452    11     25    200     2       4     16.26
10    Laurence Maroney     1320    10     30    255     1       2     15.56
11    Ahman Green          1170    6      50    375     2       3     15.38
12    Clinton Portis       1290    9      35    262     0       1     15.13
13    Thomas Jones         1230    10     40    200     0       1     15.06
14    Rudi Johnson         1428    12     22    92      0       4     14.86
15    Edgerrin James       1254    8      40    260     0       2     14.71
16    Maurice Jones-Drew   880     8      50    400     2       2     14.63
17    Ronnie Brown         1260    7      40    320     0       3     14.63
18    Jerious Norwood      912     5      60    480     2       4     14.58
19    Cedric Benson        1290    11     20    140     0       2     14.06
20    Travis Henry         1380    10     20    120     0       3     14
21    Marshawn Lynch       1107    6      40    280     1       3     13.42
22    Willis McGahee       1230    9      23    184     0       3     13.25
23    Deuce McAllister     1100    8      30    210     0       2     12.81
24    Jamal Lewis          1178    8      20    130     0       3     12.05
25    Cadillac Williams    1053    6      30    180     1       3     11.83
26    Adrian Peterson      990     6      30    195     0       2     11.25
27    Tatum Bell           1012    6      30    180     0       3     11.2
28    Vernand Morency      900     4      35    262     1       3     10.94
29    Brandon Jacobs       897     8      20    160     0       2     10.61
30    Julius Jones         1107    6      15    105     0       2     10.48
31    DeAngelo Williams    615     4      35    315     1       2     9.59
32    LenDale White        950     5      20    120     0       2     9.56
33    Marion Barber        644     7      20    160     1       2     9.03
34    Ladell Betts         645     3      35    245     1       3     8.84
35    LaMont Jordan        760     3      25    150     1       4     8.25
36    Brandon Jackson      630     3      30    180     0       2     7.81
37    Fred Taylor          902     2      15    105     0       3     7.58
38    DeShaun Foster       760     2      20    100     0       2     7.13
39    Chester Taylor       510     4      20    140     1       2     6.94
40    Kevin Jones          492     2      25    200     1       2     6.76



With these the first thing to note is that I'm expecting (as of today) Portis to retain most of the carries. The same applies to Julius Jones who I believe will take 1st and 2nd downs and heeding the occasional set of downs to Barber, who will also take 3rd down duties. It should also be noted that I have Adrian Peterson winning out the starting role in Minnesota and LenDale White still clinging onto first string duties. Last, but not least, I don't have Kevin Jones coming back until week 7 which is why his totals are so low. I do think he'll reclaim back about half of the carries once he's back, but that's because I also don't believe Tatum Bell will stay healthy all season long.

I'm riding a fine line with the injuries here which are also accounted for. This does mean that I've taken about 1.5 games out of Westbrook's numbers, which is important to note since he is a high ranking RB.

Finally, I am, by nature, a homer. Shaun Alexander comes back to form this year, albeit not entirely to the 2005 levels. He misses the 1,500 yard mark but does get back to 15 TDs this year.

Hopefully this will fuel discussion on the PPR side of things. My numbers are a little different than some of the other prognostications, and maybe I should have used those instead of my own. But I did want to see what I would come up with and then compare, instead of just stealing them. Besides, it's kind of fun and give you a good sense of what you really think a player will do. I would highly recommend trying it at least once.

For anyone still reading and who is mildly interested in how I came up with these numbers, I basically figured out how many rushes a team does, figured out my estimation on what percentage of carries an RB would get and a rough estimate (which includes previous years) of what their YPC would be. In some cases, such as Alexander and Rudi, I've given them more of boost because some portion of the offense wasn't healthy (or they weren't healthy) or performing as expected.

Enjoy!

[bobbing_headz]

Lofty expectations for LT there. 27 TDs, wow, that's pretty high.

No way Bush catches 90 balls again. I just don't think it will happen.

Pretty low on MJD there. I'd expect him to at least get 950 yards.

I think Norwood is too high. 60 catches? No way

Wow Morency is high. I seriously doubt he gets more than 25 catches. Plus Gbay's run game stinks. He's ahead of Jacobs, Jones, Williams, Jordan. Ewww

DeAngelo is too low. He'll get 800 RYds and 45 catches 350 yards at a minimum and if he takes over has top 15 potential in PPR.

You have Peterson winning the starting job and putting up those numbers? I have him splitting and he's easily over 1000 yards with 25-30 catches.

Why does KJones get no love? The guy is a PPR monster. Now I know he is injured but 50 catches and 600 yards aren't out of the question even if he misses the first 6 games. Last year he put up 690 and 60 catches for 500+ yards in only 12 games.

Oh and how did you put it into that format? It was a really pain to put mine up.

[codered7]

need some ppr sleeper rbs... my drafts tommorow. All i got is chester taylor/peterson, kj/tatum not much else. The way my sleepers comn i think it is a must to go rb/rb in 1 2nd round? agreed? or rb/wr/rb/qb/wr/wr/TE

12 team league normal ppr

my rankings

lt
sjax
lj
westbrook
gore
addai
SA
bush
mjd
maroney/fwp-who's better?
ronnie
edge-hopefully falls to me
portis-
rudi-will be gone ...im not draftn him waste of that high pick
tjones
tatum
ahman
...rest look like crap to me, i rather stack up on sleeper wides
... im really stuck after this

opinions will be nice! drafts tommro haha! discuss discuss!

[biju]

Lofty expectations for LT there. 27 TDs, wow, that's pretty high.

Bah! I actually meant to take off two of his rushing TDs. I'm not expecting him to have that many TDs either. I'll have to change that.

No way Bush catches 90 balls again. I just don't think it will happen.

I actually don't think it's a stretch for him to catch that many again. As a matter of fact, I think they might pass more to him, but there's little evidence that they will use him any different than they did last year which just supports him catching that many this year as well. Especially if they split him out wide in more formations. He creates bad matchups all over the field when he lines up as a WR.

Pretty low on MJD there. I'd expect him to at least get 950 yards.

I am not expecting MJD to have a good year at all. Just my opinion on his situation (with Greg Jones coming back) and that he had far too many TDs last year. I could be very wrong here, but I'm sticking with my conviction that he's not going to produce numbers worthy of the high draft pick I've seen him going at.

I think Norwood is too high. 60 catches? No way

I think the Vick situation is going to really mess with the way he gets used. I suspect most of those catches will be dump offs, but you're right in that something went terribly wrong here. I may have gotten something mixed up, so I'm going to check into it.

Wow Morency is high. I seriously doubt he gets more than 25 catches. Plus Gbay's run game stinks. He's ahead of Jacobs, Jones, Williams, Jordan. Ewww

First off, I don't think Brandon Jackson is going to steal as many touches as people think. Second, Green Bay is going to be more of a force defensively this year than last year. That's going to mean more time with the ball and possibly more time running down the clock in the 4th quarter. Hmmm, I don't see why you'd think he wouldn't get more catches either. Ahman Green had 46 catches last year in 14 games and Morency himself had 17 in extremely limited action. To me, 35 might be undershooting.

Again--and this is just my take--I expect Brandon Jacobs to get hurt during this season. I just don't believe he's going to be able to take the full load. I'm staying far away from him. Julius Jones isn't going to get 3rd down opportunities so there goes a good number of PPR points. Plus, he's going to split time with Barber. I'm not high on Williams and there's nothing on this planet that would make me think LaMont Jordan is going to out produce Morency. Absolutely nothing. Especially with Dominic Rhodes and Michael Bush taking carries from him. That Raiders team stunk last year and it will continue to stink for at least the next two years.

DeAngelo is too low. He'll get 800 RYds and 45 catches 350 yards at a minimum and if he takes over has top 15 potential in PPR.

The numbers could very well be low, but again I'm not high on his situation as I think Carolina is going to be a fairly poor team this year. I might be very wrong on this one, but I'm personally staying away from that whole team as they didn't address their WR2 issues at all. This is going to allow teams to stack up against the line, which is unfortunate since Carolina has a pretty good O-line. Plus, I've never been a believer in Delhomme.

You have Peterson winning the starting job and putting up those numbers? I have him splitting and he's easily over 1000 yards with 25-30 catches.

There are plenty of RBs in Minnesota and all will see some action. Peterson will get the "lion's share", but I still don't see him getting over 220 carries, especially since it's now "trendy" to ease your young RBs into duty. At 4.5 YPC that puts him at 990 yards. I also don't think defenses are going to give much attention to what Tarvaris Jackson is doing and make sure they don't get beat by the run. Minnesota's line is geared toward a left side running game (the right side is much weaker) and I think teams will key on that and make the young QB beat them as opposed to the Peterson/Taylor combo.

Why does KJones get no love? The guy is a PPR monster. Now I know he is injured but 50 catches and 600 yards aren't out of the question even if he misses the first 6 games. Last year he put up 690 and 60 catches for 500+ yards in only 12 games.

50 catches at 600 yards has him averaging 12 yards a catch. That's not realistic at all. Plus, I think the Lions' offense is geared more toward downfield passes this year.

Also he gets no love from me because the guy can't stay healthy. After he comes back late in the season he'll still get injured. As a matter of fact, I should have T.J. Duckett on here, because with Jones and Tatum Bell he's likely to see a large portion of action.

Oh and how did you put it into that format? It was a really pain to put mine up.

I used the "code" tag and painfully put in spaces to make the columns in Windows Notepad and then cut and paste them in between the tags. It took a little bit of time.

Thanks for the input!

[CPD]

I think u are giving to manny receptions across the board...

and No way A.Green gets 50... mayby 35/40 TOPS

Good job though

[shawngee03]

so is westbrook a lock as the number 4 guy? and are addai and bush above the other second tier guys a good idea? i ask bc all the leagues im in are PPR(i know it sucks), so i could be able to steal these guys instead of teh other 4-7 guys that show up in non-PPR list(SA, willie, gore). i would just hate to have that #4 pick and pass on gore when almost every standard list has him at 4

[biju]

I think u are giving to manny receptions across the board...

and No way A.Green gets 50... mayby 35/40 TOPS

Good job though

These receptions are based on last year's numbers plus the situation the RB is in.

Ahman Green is an interesting example because he had 46 catches last year, so he's got the hands. The Texans are a team that has a weak O-line and has used the strength of RBs from the past to capitalize on short dump offs. Of course, that was under a different head coach, but I don't see why that wouldn't still apply as it's a general tactic employed by many NFL teams.

Yeah, I could have put too many receptions up there, but even if you lower the receptions by 1/3 you're going to end up with roughly the same rankings. The people who would get pushed upward would be Alexander and Parker, along with Rudi.

Removing 15 catches from Westbrook and 20 from Bush still leaves them with 270.8 and 253.5 points respectively. Compare that to Gore's 272.36 and you'll see that we're still in the same range. With Norv Turner leaving SF I would take the upside of the other guys before Gore, but that's just me personally.

[mattb47]

Well, first off I have to say that you are far underestimating how much Parker will be used in the passing game this year. The move to the spread formation (more similar to what the Colts do) will only increase the RBs role in the passing game via screen passes and dump offs. His reception totals will probably go up from the 31 he had last year not down. I think we'll see him landing in the 40 reception range this year.

Second. If you're expecting Portis to retain most of the carries then predicting him to end up with just 1290 yards is far too low a prediction in my opinion. That is a very productive offense and should he receive a good chunk of the carries he should end up getting at least in the 1400 yard range and I think that should this happen he's also got an excellent shot at getting double digit rushing TDs (considering he had 7 in just 6 starts last year).

I also think that you have a bit too low of predictions for Brandon Jacobs and DeAngelo Williams. Jacobs is a guy it looks like they have a lot of confidence in to be their guy this year and even if he ends up having to split a little bit more, 1000 yards isn't going to be tough for him to land. DeAngelo Williams is going to be running in a very similar offense to the one he ran in college this year and chances are that his role in the offenses will increase as well especially in the passing game. They plan on using him plenty through the air and using his strengths much more this year and 615 yards rushing is much too low, I don't think there's too much of a chance that Foster outrushes Williams this year barring injury.

Just some thoughts.

[BrutallyHuge]

Second. If you're expecting Portis to retain most of the carries then predicting him to end up with just 1290 yards is far too low a prediction in my opinion. That is a very productive offense and should he receive a good chunk of the carries he should end up getting at least in the 1400 yard range.

1290 is far too low and you counter with 1400? That's like an extra 7 yards a game and these are pre-pre-season projections. Give me a break.

[biju]

Well, first off I have to say that you are far underestimating how much Parker will be used in the passing game this year. The move to the spread formation (more similar to what the Colts do) will only increase the RBs role in the passing game via screen passes and dump offs. His reception totals will probably go up from the 31 he had last year not down. I think we'll see him landing in the 40 reception range this year.

Hmmm. That's a good point. I was countering the fact that I believe the Steelers are in for a tough year offensively (and defensively for that matter) but that shouldn't mean that Parker's passing numbers will decrease. As a matter of fact, I think I remember that Ben tends to throw more short passes that most QBs do. I'll have to review those numbers and figure out why I had him that low.

Second. If you're expecting Portis to retain most of the carries then predicting him to end up with just 1290 yards is far too low a prediction in my opinion. That is a very productive offense and should he receive a good chunk of the carries he should end up getting at least in the 1400 yard range and I think that should this happen he's also got an excellent shot at getting double digit rushing TDs (considering he had 7 in just 6 starts last year).

Well, I should have worded "most of the carries" a little different. Many people at the Cafe are predicting a 50/50 split. I don't believe, if he's healthy, that split will be correct. I'm more along the line of 65/35, but realistically even at that you're not really giving only those guys 100% of the carries. WAS has, the last two years, averaged out giving their RB3 just over 6% of the total carries. This number was inflated last year due to Portis' injury, so let's just call it 5%. The carries come down to right around 500 per year (more this year as I suspect Jason Campbell will run some) which means that 475 carries will be split across Betts and Portis. 65% of 475 is roughly 309 carries. Multiply that by Clinton's YPC, which I attributed as 4.2 (2004: 3.8, 2005: 4.3, 2006: 4.1) and you get (475 * 0.65 * 4.2) 1296.75 yards. TDs are a different subject, but if you average out the TDs you'll get around 14 TDs per year rushing. Multiply that by 65% and you get 9.1.

Again, these are all just taking what has happened in the past and applying today's circumstances. I could be wrong on the split and it would drastically change each players' value considerably.

I also think that you have a bit too low of predictions for Brandon Jacobs and DeAngelo Williams. Jacobs is a guy it looks like they have a lot of confidence in to be their guy this year and even if he ends up having to split a little bit more, 1000 yards isn't going to be tough for him to land. DeAngelo Williams is going to be running in a very similar offense to the one he ran in college this year and chances are that his role in the offenses will increase as well especially in the passing game. They plan on using him plenty through the air and using his strengths much more this year and 615 yards rushing is much too low, I don't think there's too much of a chance that Foster outrushes Williams this year barring injury.

I'm fine with my predictions on these guys, but love the discussion.

Jacobs just isn't going to last the full year IMO. Maybe I'm doing the wrong thing by assuming he's going to get injured, but then I'd also have to adjust Westbrook's numbers as well as those numbers don't reflect a full year from him either.

DeAngelo Williams is going to be an interesting player to watch this year. I'm not high on him at all, and everyone can gladly come back and say I told you so at the end of the year if I'm wrong. But for me, I think it's going to be too easy for teams to double team Steve Smith and then wait for the rush.

Just some thoughts.

Thanks! I always worry that I sound like I'm being defensive, but I'm really trying to explain my logic so people can point out any flaws. I hope people aren't turned away from the discussion due to my rebuttal. Although I know you wouldn't shy away from a debate.