Warpigs wrote:The minute you head into a draft with this mentality is the minute your season is basically over. There are obviously some players that I have higher expectations for -- but when it comes time for my pick each round, I'll be taking the best available player based on value. I've seen too many people burn themselves because they stretch to take a "must have" player.
I understand why you say this, and it makes a lot of sense to some degree, but it seems to me that the person who wins the league year-in and year-out is whatever guy had a 6th round pick or later break out and put up big numbers.
To think about it another way, no player on your roster is going to have any impact on your ability to win games unless he (a) makes it to your starting lineup at some point, or (b) has a lot of trade value. For example, you normally wouldn't expect your 6th WR taken to start for your team at any point (talking about standard lineups, here). If you thought he was going to be good enough to be a fantasy starter, he would be someone's 2nd/3rd WR, not your 6th. If you don't expect him to start*, why draft him in the first place? It makes more sense to reach a little bit to get the guy that you think has a chance to do something special and either crack your starting lineup or be trade bait, even though his ADP is a round later than where you are picking now. A reach in the 12th round isn't going to hurt you all that much, but finding that late-round sleeper could potentially win your league. That's a chance worth taking.
I guess what I'm saying is that it makes sense to assume that early round players will be fairly close to their expected stats. That's not the case with the late round guys. It's more about who has the highest ceiling than what you expect their stats to be. If you make your cheatsheets with this in mind, feel free to just cross guys off the list and take the best player available, but I don't think there are that many people that consider this when making their cheatsheets. I think most people project each player's expected stats and rank based on their projections. This is an arrogant way to do it because you are assuming that you were correct on all of your projections.
FF is about taking advantage of what's unexpected, so why would you draft based only on what is expected?
*and if you don't expect him to be a starter, the chances that he has any trade value are slim, too