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Re: Shawn Alexander worthy

Postby wbgrafix » Sun Aug 05, 2007 10:04 am

These guys are right on. Even in a non-PPR league, Alexander isn't worth that high a pick. I'd even take Manning if it's 6 points per touchdown across the board.

I know it sounds high, but Westy is your best bet, followed by Bush. Maybe even Addai.
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Re: Shawn Alexander worthy

Postby WickedSmaat » Sun Aug 05, 2007 11:40 am

If the guy at #3 doesn't take LJ, take him. The amount of TDs alone will keep him a top 3 back this year.
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Re: Shawn Alexander worthy

Postby moose_ffc » Sun Aug 05, 2007 11:58 am

northcuttfan wrote:ppr league 8 team league 4th pick.. any SA comeback believers? think hes a solid pick at 4?


In non-PPR, he is a slam dunk at 4 or even 3 IMHO. However, in a PPR, you have to go for someone who catches more passes than him. For example, I think Reggie is a top 6 in a PPR, but he doesn't sniff the 1st round for me in a non-PPR.
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Re: Shawn Alexander worthy

Postby Slow Pitch » Sun Aug 05, 2007 9:33 pm

You people are on crack. So much hate on SA its just comical at this point.

Saying he is in the 7-10 range is just stupid. You are making yourselves look like idiots.

God I hope the rest of my league reads this thread....I used to hope my league didnt know about the cafe, but with this type of info going around more & more around I hope they do...

Still dont understand how the Baseball Cafe is light years ahead of the Football Cafe in knowledge base.... :-?
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Re: Shawn Alexander worthy

Postby Shader » Sun Aug 05, 2007 9:38 pm

bagobonez wrote:Again... the ONLY argument people have in SA's favor is that he's been a fantasy monster IN THE PAST.

Last year he was RB11 or RB12 in fantasy points per game, and he returns to the exact same offense this year minus Darrell Jackson. He's also now 30. And the only reason he put up numbers late last year is because Mike Holmgren gave him the rented mule treatment. Holmgren was running Alexander so many times after he came back, that had he had that same ratio of carries for a full 16 games he would have had 453 carries in a year. A blind monkey is going to get 100 yards and a score if he's getting the ball that much, and there's no way a 30 year old Alexander can handle that many carries a game for the duration of a season. He averaged 3.6 a carry last year (and even less than that before the foot injury) and will be running behind the same line this year. How can he improve? How is he going to average more fantasy points per game than he did last year when his situation is unquestionably worse?


Because his foot was injured all year, and now that it's healthy, he'll be fine.

There's no magical wall that players hit when they turn 30.

Alexander is a proven TD machine and he'll have plenty of doubters, but he'll be right there again with 1400 yards and 15+TD's..
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Re: Shawn Alexander worthy

Postby sublimeandy » Sun Aug 05, 2007 9:47 pm

i wonder how many alexander haters got burned by drafting him high last year and now they hate him and are convinced he's done. i know i stay away from and usually despise players that i drafted high and got burned on.
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Re: Shawn Alexander worthy

Postby fantasizing » Sun Aug 05, 2007 10:12 pm

SA:

1567 yds rushing
17 rushing TDs
134 yds receiving
2 receiving TDs


Mark my words. You can bring this thread back up on January 8th, 2008.
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Re: Shawn Alexander worthy

Postby bagobonez » Sun Aug 05, 2007 10:13 pm

Shader wrote:
Because his foot was injured all year, and now that it's healthy, he'll be fine.


Alexander's YPC before the injury... 2.83 (against NYG, DET and AZ, not exactly great defenses)
Alexander's YPC after the injury... 3.60

Meaning his injury had no bearing on his 3.6 YPC for the season.

Shader wrote:There's no magical wall that players hit when they turn 30.


Oh really?

Look at this chart. The stats are an average taken from the top 50 all time yardage leaders at RB.

Age..... Yds..... YPC....TD.....1000YD%.....10TD%
26-27....1,280...4.3.....9.2.....72.7%.......42.4%
28-29....1,168...4.2.....8.4.....51.1%.......28.4%
30........1,008...4.2.....6.6.....35.9%.......28.2%

In other words, 72.7% of RB's from age 26-27 rush for 1,000, while only 35.9% of RB's at the age of 30 rush for 1,000. The odds are against him, yes there IS a magical wall, and it actually starts around 28 or 29 years old.

Shader wrote:Alexander is a proven TD machine and he'll have plenty of doubters, but he'll be right there again with 1400 yards and 15+TD's..


Really? If he averages 3.6 yards per carry again in '07, it would take him 416 carries to hit 1,500 yards. There's not a chance in hell he stays healthy with 416 carries at the age of 30. Furthermore, there's not a chance in hell he even GETS that many carries. And what evidence is there to support that he could raise his YPC up to the 4.5 range again? I already debunked your "it was the foot injury that hurt his YPC" theory, because his YPC was better after he came back from injury than in the 3 games prior.

Could someone please explain to me how Shaun ALexander can possibly finish as the 4th or 5th best RB with an argument other than "he's always been a fantasy god in the past."
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Re: Shawn Alexander worthy

Postby Shader » Mon Aug 06, 2007 2:26 am

Come on now, neither of us have "proof" that he'll do one thing or another. There are no magic stats that "prove" that he's over the hill.

But he was never quite right last year, the Seattle offense was never very good, he's historically a slow starter, (and he got injured last year about the time he usually takes off), he still had some pretty good games when he came back, he's a goalline machine, and he receives the vast majority of the carries.

All players EVENTUALLY get old and start losing their abilities. And while last year might have been a red flag to some people, I just don't see it that way. The guy was absolutely phenomenal two years ago, and he doesn't take the punishment that some RB's take, due to the style of running that he employs.

Also, he's extremely goal-conscious, and he's eyeing his place in the stat books. Another two-three seasons of 15 TD's and he'll be in the top 3-4 rb's all-time.

Sorry Bagobonez, but you can no more "prove" that he's on his way down that I can "prove" that he'll have a great year. I guess we'll agree to disagree and we'll revisit the discussion in a few months and see who was right.
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Re: Shawn Alexander worthy

Postby bagobonez » Mon Aug 06, 2007 7:15 am

Shader wrote:Come on now, neither of us have "proof" that he'll do one thing or another. There are no magic stats that "prove" that he's over the hill.

But he was never quite right last year, the Seattle offense was never very good, he's historically a slow starter, (and he got injured last year about the time he usually takes off), he still had some pretty good games when he came back, he's a goalline machine, and he receives the vast majority of the carries.

All players EVENTUALLY get old and start losing their abilities. And while last year might have been a red flag to some people, I just don't see it that way. The guy was absolutely phenomenal two years ago, and he doesn't take the punishment that some RB's take, due to the style of running that he employs.

Also, he's extremely goal-conscious, and he's eyeing his place in the stat books. Another two-three seasons of 15 TD's and he'll be in the top 3-4 rb's all-time.

Sorry Bagobonez, but you can no more "prove" that he's on his way down that I can "prove" that he'll have a great year. I guess we'll agree to disagree and we'll revisit the discussion in a few months and see who was right.


Fair enough. I'm just saying... I'm providing statistics and trends to show why Alexander will bust, but all anyone can ever say to defend him is "he was a monster 2 years ago" or "I have a gut feeling about him." At least just explain this to me... do you see Alexander's YPC getting above 4.0, and if you do, can you explain your reasons for thinking so? And if you DON'T see his YPC getting above 4.0, he'll need 400 carries to finish as the 4th or 5th best RB and justify his ADP. And if he gets 400 carries, do you think he'll hold up all season? If I'm wrong, I will gladly admit it, but I highly doubt that I will be wrong come January.
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