Shawn Alexander worthy - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Shawn Alexander worthy

Moderator: Football Moderators

Re: Shawn Alexander worthy

Postby biju » Mon Aug 06, 2007 10:20 am

bagobonez wrote:
Shader wrote:
Because his foot was injured all year, and now that it's healthy, he'll be fine.


Alexander's YPC before the injury... 2.83 (against NYG, DET and AZ, not exactly great defenses)
Alexander's YPC after the injury... 3.60

Meaning his injury had no bearing on his 3.6 YPC for the season.


Actually, there was no "before the injury" as he injured his foot in the first game of the season, but continued to play. Anyone watching the games knew he was injured as he clearly wasn't running the same.

After he came back, yes, he most certainly did only produce 3.6 YPC but he improved as he got more games in. As a matter of fact, his first game back was still with Seneca Wallace in at QB (Hasselbeck didn't recover from his injury until the next week) in which he produced a 37 yards on 17 carries. Removing just that single game to use only the "full offense" numbers brings his post-injury YPC up to 3.95--not the "glory" years, but certainly better than the light you're trying to shine on the situation.

I'm not about to say he's absolutely going to have a great year, because he is getting up there in age. But I do think too many people are reading into last year too much, due to misinformation about his injury and the state of Seattle's injuries.
Image
biju
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 5941
Joined: 6 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Seattle - Ballard

Re: Shawn Alexander worthy

Postby Shader » Mon Aug 06, 2007 11:06 am

bagobonez wrote:
Shader wrote:Come on now, neither of us have "proof" that he'll do one thing or another. There are no magic stats that "prove" that he's over the hill.

But he was never quite right last year, the Seattle offense was never very good, he's historically a slow starter, (and he got injured last year about the time he usually takes off), he still had some pretty good games when he came back, he's a goalline machine, and he receives the vast majority of the carries.

All players EVENTUALLY get old and start losing their abilities. And while last year might have been a red flag to some people, I just don't see it that way. The guy was absolutely phenomenal two years ago, and he doesn't take the punishment that some RB's take, due to the style of running that he employs.

Also, he's extremely goal-conscious, and he's eyeing his place in the stat books. Another two-three seasons of 15 TD's and he'll be in the top 3-4 rb's all-time.

Sorry Bagobonez, but you can no more "prove" that he's on his way down that I can "prove" that he'll have a great year. I guess we'll agree to disagree and we'll revisit the discussion in a few months and see who was right.


Fair enough. I'm just saying... I'm providing statistics and trends to show why Alexander will bust, but all anyone can ever say to defend him is "he was a monster 2 years ago" or "I have a gut feeling about him." At least just explain this to me... do you see Alexander's YPC getting above 4.0, and if you do, can you explain your reasons for thinking so? And if you DON'T see his YPC getting above 4.0, he'll need 400 carries to finish as the 4th or 5th best RB and justify his ADP. And if he gets 400 carries, do you think he'll hold up all season? If I'm wrong, I will gladly admit it, but I highly doubt that I will be wrong come January.


I don't think you're providing trends. I think you're using a down year and claiming that it is a trend.

You're claiming that the down year was age-related, and I'm claiming it was injury related. There is no real way to prove who is right other than wait and see if Alexander is his old self this year or if he indeed has aged.
Shader
Defensive Assistant
Defensive Assistant

User avatar

Posts: 367
Joined: 4 Jul 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Tennessee

Re: Shawn Alexander worthy

Postby Shader » Mon Aug 06, 2007 11:11 am

biju wrote:
bagobonez wrote:
Shader wrote:
Because his foot was injured all year, and now that it's healthy, he'll be fine.


Alexander's YPC before the injury... 2.83 (against NYG, DET and AZ, not exactly great defenses)
Alexander's YPC after the injury... 3.60

Meaning his injury had no bearing on his 3.6 YPC for the season.


Actually, there was no "before the injury" as he injured his foot in the first game of the season, but continued to play. Anyone watching the games knew he was injured as he clearly wasn't running the same.

After he came back, yes, he most certainly did only produce 3.6 YPC but he improved as he got more games in. As a matter of fact, his first game back was still with Seneca Wallace in at QB (Hasselbeck didn't recover from his injury until the next week) in which he produced a 37 yards on 17 carries. Removing just that single game to use only the "full offense" numbers brings his post-injury YPC up to 3.95--not the "glory" years, but certainly better than the light you're trying to shine on the situation.

I'm not about to say he's absolutely going to have a great year, because he is getting up there in age. But I do think too many people are reading into last year too much, due to misinformation about his injury and the state of Seattle's injuries.


I'm glad you posted that because I couldn't remember when he got hurt, but I was sure it was very early in the season, and I knew he spent a few weeks playing through it. I just was hesitant to post something that I might be wrong on.

I would say this prove that he was never really himself last year.
Shader
Defensive Assistant
Defensive Assistant

User avatar

Posts: 367
Joined: 4 Jul 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Tennessee

Re: Shawn Alexander worthy

Postby bagobonez » Mon Aug 06, 2007 12:14 pm

Even if the injury is what caused his paltry 3.6 YPC, does anyone really see him jumping a full yard back up to the 4.5 area with the loss of Steve Hutchinson, and the decline of Walter Jones? There's also the fact that Darrell Jackson is gone. This offense has gone nowhere but downhill, yet everyone thinks Alexander's a LOCK to be the 4th or 5th best RB once the season's over.

How can he go from being 11th or 12th in fantasy points per game, and jump all the way up to being 4th or 5th in fantasy points per game, ESPECIALLY now that he's 30?

You've gotta understand, the guys that finish 4th and 5th at RB are usually guys that put up around 1,800 total yards and 13-15 TD's. Alexander's never been the kind of guy to put up 500 yards receiving every year, in fact his receiving totals have dwindled every year, which means he's gonna need to rush for 1,600 to get near 1,800 total yards. There's no way he rushes for 1,600 this year, there's just not. ANd I don't think the Seahawks are gonna put him at the goal-line often enough for him to get anywhere near 20 TD's. 12 or 13 if he's lucky.

I'm not saying he can't have a decent season. I'm not saying he can't rush for 1,300 yards and 10 TD's. But if you're going to burn the 4th overall pick on him, he's going to need to put up more than 1,300 rushing and 10 TD's, otherwise you overpaid for him.
"90% of the game is half mental" - John Madden
Image
bagobonez
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 4463
Joined: 23 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Atop my league's fantasy throne

Re: Shawn Alexander worthy

Postby D3C4K » Mon Aug 06, 2007 3:39 pm

bagobonez wrote:Even if the injury is what caused his paltry 3.6 YPC, does anyone really see him jumping a full yard back up to the 4.5 area with the loss of Steve Hutchinson, and the decline of Walter Jones? There's also the fact that Darrell Jackson is gone. This offense has gone nowhere but downhill, yet everyone thinks Alexander's a LOCK to be the 4th or 5th best RB once the season's over.

How can he go from being 11th or 12th in fantasy points per game, and jump all the way up to being 4th or 5th in fantasy points per game, ESPECIALLY now that he's 30?

You've gotta understand, the guys that finish 4th and 5th at RB are usually guys that put up around 1,800 total yards and 13-15 TD's. Alexander's never been the kind of guy to put up 500 yards receiving every year, in fact his receiving totals have dwindled every year, which means he's gonna need to rush for 1,600 to get near 1,800 total yards. There's no way he rushes for 1,600 this year, there's just not. ANd I don't think the Seahawks are gonna put him at the goal-line often enough for him to get anywhere near 20 TD's. 12 or 13 if he's lucky.

I'm not saying he can't have a decent season. I'm not saying he can't rush for 1,300 yards and 10 TD's. But if you're going to burn the 4th overall pick on him, he's going to need to put up more than 1,300 rushing and 10 TD's, otherwise you overpaid for him.


I mentioned a few other reasons I like Alexander in my earlier post, namely his light schedule and question marks surrounding the other primary options in the 3rd or 4th slot. But as far as his ypc goes, you can't just say he's completely healthy because he was back on the field. He was pretty much hurt all year, and x-rays still showed a crack in his foot when he returned to action, doctor's just made it clear that running on it wouldn't make the injury worse. So he toughed it out, and did what he could. That doesn't necessarily mean that his results at the end of the season are on par with was he'll do after an offseason's rest. He's running pain-free now and looks to be excited for the upcoming season. As far as his age goes, he may be turning 30 soon, but he's only played six full seasons in the NFL (he was a 3rd down back his first year in 2000, where he had 64 carries). so he still has some mileage left in those legs, especially after missing time last year. I'm not saying he'll come back and average 5.1 ypc as in 2005, but I could certainly see him getting around 4.2 ypc with about 345 carries (which would still be in line with your age 30 statistic) plus about 25 receptions for 200 yards (a bump in receptions due to Jackson's absence) along with about 14-15 tds (had 7 tds last year in a significantly shortened season; he's still a great goalline back, and I don't see that changing next year with a pretty easy schedule and Mack Strong & Walter Jones still leading the way). So, all-in-all, I'd expect about 1600+ all-purpose yards and 16 tds (14 by ground, 2 by air). Several years ago that may not be enough to warrant a top 3 pick (What with LTD, Priest Holmes/LJ and a fresh Alexander locking down those slots), but with the recent developments with Frank Gore & LJ, I feel more confident in Alexander coming back and putting up top rb1 numbers than I do in an already fumble-prone Frank Gore playing with a recently broken carrying hand or a beaten-up Larry Johnson being overworked behind a shaky o-line against a tough as nails schedule (or possibly sitting out entirely until he gets a new contract). I don't think anyone is saying Alexander's a lock for top 4 at the end of the year, we're just saying that he's certainly a valid option considering the current state of NFL rbs and the influx of rbbc's. If LJ still had Will Shields and Trent Green and Frank Gore was a picture of health and a dominant goalline back, we wouldn't be having this conversation. But pretty much every rb outside of LTD and maybe Steven Jackson has significant flaws, but at least Alexander has the proven talent, an easy schedule, and a solid team around him to stand out among the rest.
D3C4K
Head Coach
Head Coach


Posts: 1489
Joined: 23 Jul 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Chicago, Il.

Re: Shawn Alexander worthy

Postby mystykoekaki » Mon Aug 06, 2007 3:47 pm

Sorry Shaun but we REALLY like Hutch over here in MN.
mystykoekaki Beginner
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3185
Joined: 13 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Shawn Alexander worthy

Postby bagobonez » Mon Aug 06, 2007 5:47 pm

D3C4K wrote:
bagobonez wrote:Even if the injury is what caused his paltry 3.6 YPC, does anyone really see him jumping a full yard back up to the 4.5 area with the loss of Steve Hutchinson, and the decline of Walter Jones? There's also the fact that Darrell Jackson is gone. This offense has gone nowhere but downhill, yet everyone thinks Alexander's a LOCK to be the 4th or 5th best RB once the season's over.

How can he go from being 11th or 12th in fantasy points per game, and jump all the way up to being 4th or 5th in fantasy points per game, ESPECIALLY now that he's 30?

You've gotta understand, the guys that finish 4th and 5th at RB are usually guys that put up around 1,800 total yards and 13-15 TD's. Alexander's never been the kind of guy to put up 500 yards receiving every year, in fact his receiving totals have dwindled every year, which means he's gonna need to rush for 1,600 to get near 1,800 total yards. There's no way he rushes for 1,600 this year, there's just not. ANd I don't think the Seahawks are gonna put him at the goal-line often enough for him to get anywhere near 20 TD's. 12 or 13 if he's lucky.

I'm not saying he can't have a decent season. I'm not saying he can't rush for 1,300 yards and 10 TD's. But if you're going to burn the 4th overall pick on him, he's going to need to put up more than 1,300 rushing and 10 TD's, otherwise you overpaid for him.


I mentioned a few other reasons I like Alexander in my earlier post, namely his light schedule and question marks surrounding the other primary options in the 3rd or 4th slot. But as far as his ypc goes, you can't just say he's completely healthy because he was back on the field. He was pretty much hurt all year, and x-rays still showed a crack in his foot when he returned to action, doctor's just made it clear that running on it wouldn't make the injury worse. So he toughed it out, and did what he could. That doesn't necessarily mean that his results at the end of the season are on par with was he'll do after an offseason's rest. He's running pain-free now and looks to be excited for the upcoming season. As far as his age goes, he may be turning 30 soon, but he's only played six full seasons in the NFL (he was a 3rd down back his first year in 2000, where he had 64 carries). so he still has some mileage left in those legs, especially after missing time last year. I'm not saying he'll come back and average 5.1 ypc as in 2005, but I could certainly see him getting around 4.2 ypc with about 345 carries (which would still be in line with your age 30 statistic) plus about 25 receptions for 200 yards (a bump in receptions due to Jackson's absence) along with about 14-15 tds (had 7 tds last year in a significantly shortened season; he's still a great goalline back, and I don't see that changing next year with a pretty easy schedule and Mack Strong & Walter Jones still leading the way). So, all-in-all, I'd expect about 1600+ all-purpose yards and 16 tds (14 by ground, 2 by air). Several years ago that may not be enough to warrant a top 3 pick (What with LTD, Priest Holmes/LJ and a fresh Alexander locking down those slots), but with the recent developments with Frank Gore & LJ, I feel more confident in Alexander coming back and putting up top rb1 numbers than I do in an already fumble-prone Frank Gore playing with a recently broken carrying hand or a beaten-up Larry Johnson being overworked behind a shaky o-line against a tough as nails schedule (or possibly sitting out entirely until he gets a new contract). I don't think anyone is saying Alexander's a lock for top 4 at the end of the year, we're just saying that he's certainly a valid option considering the current state of NFL rbs and the influx of rbbc's. If LJ still had Will Shields and Trent Green and Frank Gore was a picture of health and a dominant goalline back, we wouldn't be having this conversation. But pretty much every rb outside of LTD and maybe Steven Jackson has significant flaws, but at least Alexander has the proven talent, an easy schedule, and a solid team around him to stand out among the rest.


I guess we're just going to have to agree to disagree. But come November don't say I didnt' warn you when Alexander's just not carrying your team like a 4th overall pick should.
"90% of the game is half mental" - John Madden
Image
bagobonez
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 4463
Joined: 23 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Atop my league's fantasy throne

Re: Shawn Alexander worthy

Postby biju » Mon Aug 06, 2007 6:34 pm

bagobonez wrote:I guess we're just going to have to agree to disagree. But come November don't say I didnt' warn you when Alexander's just not carrying your team like a 4th overall pick should.


Care to put a sig bet down? It's easy to say that, but to put numbers and a sig on the line sounds much better.

:-D
Image
biju
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 5941
Joined: 6 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Seattle - Ballard

Re: Shawn Alexander worthy

Postby bagobonez » Mon Aug 06, 2007 7:00 pm

biju wrote:
bagobonez wrote:I guess we're just going to have to agree to disagree. But come November don't say I didnt' warn you when Alexander's just not carrying your team like a 4th overall pick should.


Care to put a sig bet down? It's easy to say that, but to put numbers and a sig on the line sounds much better.

:-D


Sure. I think Alexander needs to finish as RB5 or higher, otherwise I win the bet. What are the terms?
"90% of the game is half mental" - John Madden
Image
bagobonez
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 4463
Joined: 23 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Atop my league's fantasy throne

Re: Shawn Alexander worthy

Postby D3C4K » Mon Aug 06, 2007 8:41 pm

bagobonez wrote:I guess we're just going to have to agree to disagree. But come November don't say I didnt' warn you when Alexander's just not carrying your team like a 4th overall pick should.


Actually, I'm praying for a top 2 pick. ;-D

If I draw the 4th overall pick, I might trade down and grab whomever's left. Save myself a headache and grab another top 15 player in the 2nd. Good luck this year.

mystykoekaki wrote:Sorry Shaun but we REALLY like Hutch over here in MN.

:-b
D3C4K
Head Coach
Head Coach


Posts: 1489
Joined: 23 Jul 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Chicago, Il.

PreviousNext

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 19:55 hours
(and 36 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact