Top 10 RB LOCK!

[PMoneyTKE]

I like these predictions as well , I'd say the only beef I have is with MJD, though I agree he has the talent he just has too many things working against him to crack the top 10 this year IMO...i.e. competing with FT and Greg Jones for carries, Jax having one heck of a QB situation and basically no passing game...don't get me wrong, he's a good back to have, especially in a dynasty/keeper, just not top 10 this year IMHO

[doublej73]

Actually, at least one of the running back yards per catch is about right. Rudi Johnson has never been a very good receiver. Big backs like him, J Lewis and Bettis usually are not. Rudi's best yards per catch season was 2003 when he averaged 7 per catch with a career high(!) 146 yards.

However, the really good backs should average closer to 8-10 yards per catch. Parker has season yards per catch averages of 12.1 and 7.2 the two seasons he started. Granted the 2005 totals were 18 for 218, inflated by a 48 yard catch and run vs the Titans.

The against the grain prediction I will make is Gore will not finish in the top ten. Not because of poor play but I think he is this years "Clinton Portis" in that he will get hurt and only start 8-9 games tops. He's had more injuries than Evil Kenival!

[WickedSmaat]

Personally I like these. I dont agree with all the picks, but I have no problem excluding LJ and Alexander, there are valid reasons to suspect that.

True dat. I'd keep SA in top ten but as far as LJ... read my statement regarding LJ from a different topic in the Player Updates/Injury forum.

http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=333278
There have been discussions on other sites regarding his recent slide.
I mean let's look at the case.

History is not on his side with the 400+ carries... (you've read the articles),

O-line issues. Who's gonna block?

QB's. Huard/Croyle? I think Huard is ok but I bet defenses are daring him to beat them.

WR's. No supporting cast. Outside of Gonzo... Samie Parker , Jeff Webb , Maurice Price , Ean Randolph , Titus Ryan , Dwayne Bowe (from kc's site) uh..... WHO r these guys?

All defenses has to do is stack the line and hope that the dynamic duo of Parker/Bowe doesn't beat them.

Plus, he's still holding out, and by the looks of it, aren't even remotely close to a deal.
Even if he were to sign, do you think he'll perform to his elite top 3 RB status? I say not even close. I personally wouldn't take him til late 1.

So if he was to get traded to a different team, where does that put him?

[chidoy]

So if he was to get traded to a different team, where does that put him?

back to top 3

[timoshimoon]

Yep, neither will make the TOP 10. Just my opinion based on stats of Full Load RB's, Age, and situation. LJ won't even sniff the TOP 10 in any way. Not this year or in the future for sure. Zander does have a top 15 opportunity, but that's about it. Gotta give him props though....was a stud, when he was a stud. Those days are long gone though.

I agree with you here (so many backs that are projected top 10 each year dont come close to the projections, so why do we continue to project backs with the odds against them to put up these crazy numbers?)...but saying a broken hand wont matter to a back who has had some fumbling issue (right?) idk it scares me. Does he slide down my rankings any? No. But its not just something to brush to the side.

He only fumbled a couple of games in the season. All these guys had the same amount of fumbles he had last year, but no one is crying about their fumbling problems...

Total Fumbles for the 2006 NFL Season: These are fumbles, not fumbles lost.

Frank Gore: 6
Rudi Johnson: 6
Willie Parker: 6
Sean Alexander: 6

Notice that Sean has the most fumbles per game since he was sidelined.

[WickedSmaat]

I put an answer in that thread chidoy, but I'm not buying into the downslide of LJ out of the top 10.

Huard at the helm. 10 TDs.
Green. 7 TDs.

Yes he had 416 carries last year. He has 892 carries in his career. Only one of which has been full. In the starting role he's been nothing but stellar with 33 TDs including the playoffs in 25 games. They stacked the box last year they're going to do it again. The only difference from last year is the O-line which hasn't been significantly downgraded since last year anyways.

I made other points in that thread but I'm just not buying into the fact that LJ isn't going to be a factor this year. Outside of LT and SJax, there's no one in the league that has the potential of LJ, because aren't we just drafting for potential anyways?

[Santacruzer]

He only fumbled a couple of games in the season. All these guys had the same amount of fumbles he had last year, but no one is crying about their fumbling problems...

Total Fumbles for the 2006 NFL Season: These are fumbles, not fumbles lost.

Frank Gore: 6
Rudi Johnson: 6
Willie Parker: 6
Sean Alexander: 6

Notice that Sean has the most fumbles per game since he was sidelined.

None of the other guys are dealing with a broken right hand. I don't care what anyone is saying about "only a couple of weeks", and "ready for regular season". I know how long a jammed finger can bother me without people hitting or poking at it.

[timoshimoon]

He only fumbled a couple of games in the season. All these guys had the same amount of fumbles he had last year, but no one is crying about their fumbling problems...

Total Fumbles for the 2006 NFL Season: These are fumbles, not fumbles lost.

Frank Gore: 6
Rudi Johnson: 6
Willie Parker: 6
Sean Alexander: 6

Notice that Sean has the most fumbles per game since he was sidelined.

None of the other guys are dealing with a broken right hand. I don't care what anyone is saying about "only a couple of weeks", and "ready for regular season". I know how long a jammed finger can bother me without people hitting or poking at it.

Yeah... but if it was one of those other backs who broke their hand... people wouldn't be talking about their "fumbling problem"

[Nfl Fan]

but I'd like to invite you into my money league...

[knapplc]

This could be the first projection I've seen with LT2 not in the #1 spot. I can't say I disagree with it, either. SJax is pretty good, he's on a pretty good offense, and there's no reason to believe he won't perform at an elite level. LT2 is great and will continue to be a top three RB for the next few years, but there's nothing saying he can't have an "off" year where he ends up #2.

Good projections. Way to go beyond the mold.