Top 10 RB LOCK!

[bagobonez]

I put an answer in that thread chidoy, but I'm not buying into the downslide of LJ out of the top 10.

Huard at the helm. 10 TDs.
Green. 7 TDs.

Yes he had 416 carries last year. He has 892 carries in his career. Only one of which has been full. In the starting role he's been nothing but stellar with 33 TDs including the playoffs in 25 games. They stacked the box last year they're going to do it again. The only difference from last year is the O-line which hasn't been significantly downgraded since last year anyways.


I made other points in that thread but I'm just not buying into the fact that LJ isn't going to be a factor this year. Outside of LT and SJax, there's no one in the league that has the potential of LJ, because aren't we just drafting for potential anyways?

You don't think the loss of a hall of fame guard (Shields) is a significant downgrade? Not to mention Jordan Black is gone. That's 2 starters who have been replaced by lesser players. 2/5's of your O-line going away is not a good thing, especially when it was already suffering from the loss of Roaf. Ask Shaun Alexander if losing just one stud offensive lineman makes a difference.

[chidoy]

I put an answer in that thread chidoy, but I'm not buying into the downslide of LJ out of the top 10.

Huard at the helm. 10 TDs.
Green. 7 TDs.

Yes he had 416 carries last year. He has 892 carries in his career. Only one of which has been full. In the starting role he's been nothing but stellar with 33 TDs including the playoffs in 25 games. They stacked the box last year they're going to do it again. The only difference from last year is the O-line which hasn't been significantly downgraded since last year anyways.

I made other points in that thread but I'm just not buying into the fact that LJ isn't going to be a factor this year. Outside of LT and SJax, there's no one in the league that has the potential of LJ, because aren't we just drafting for potential anyways?

I see what your saying Wicked but I just don't see it for LJ this year. Sure, he's a top3 back potentially, but not on KC's team this year. Like I said, I'd draft him, but not in the top 5. JMHO.

BTW Decleater, imho, mjd doesnt' finish that high up. He's good, no doubt, but i just don't see him that high up.

[WickedSmaat]

You don't think the loss of a hall of fame guard (Shields) is a significant downgrade? Not to mention Jordan Black is gone. That's 2 starters who have been replaced by lesser players. 2/5's of your O-line going away is not a good thing, especially when it was already suffering from the loss of Roaf. Ask Shaun Alexander if losing just one stud offensive lineman makes a difference.

I don't think it's reason to put him out of the top 10. I know your stance on SA, but I bet if he never hurt his foot last year, he would have been in the the top 10 without Hutch. But you're essentially telling me that LJ is a product of the line and that anyone else in the league would have grabbed 1700 yards and a 17 TDs last year? I'll have to disagree on both cases

[bagobonez]

You don't think the loss of a hall of fame guard (Shields) is a significant downgrade? Not to mention Jordan Black is gone. That's 2 starters who have been replaced by lesser players. 2/5's of your O-line going away is not a good thing, especially when it was already suffering from the loss of Roaf. Ask Shaun Alexander if losing just one stud offensive lineman makes a difference.

I don't think it's reason to put him out of the top 10. I know your stance on SA, but I bet if he never hurt his foot last year, he would have been in the the top 10 without Hutch. But you're essentially telling me that LJ is a product of the line and that anyone else in the league would have grabbed 1700 yards and a 17 TDs last year? I'll have to disagree on both cases

No, I do not think any Rb could have rushed for 1700 and 17 behind that line. I know Johnson's a very talented RB. All I'm saying is... don't underestimate the retirement of Shields. That's going to hurt alot, not to mention the loss of Trent Green and Jordan Black. Things look grim.

[Decleater]

That's exactly what I'm talkin about bagobonez. Things look pretty bleak for LJ. Not to mention The Priest is trying for a comeback as well. If he's anything like he once was I don't see the Chiefs doing anything but fine LJ into submission. Not a chance I wanna take with my #1 pick.

[bagobonez]

That's exactly what I'm talkin about bagobonez. Things look pretty bleak for LJ. Not to mention The Priest is trying for a comeback as well. If he's anything like he once was I don't see the Chiefs doing anything but fine LJ into submission. Not a chance I wanna take with my #1 pick.

Priest doesn't really concern me. I don't think a 33 year old RB with neck trouble is really going to carry the load for the Chiefs again. I'm more concerned about LJ's workload last year, the decline of the offense in general, and his hold out. Definitely not someone I'd spend a top 5 pick on.

[maddog60]

This could be the first projection I've seen with LT2 not in the #1 spot. I can't say I disagree with it, either. SJax is pretty good, he's on a pretty good offense, and there's no reason to believe he won't perform at an elite level. LT2 is great and will continue to be a top three RB for the next few years, but there's nothing saying he can't have an "off" year where he ends up #2.

Good projections. Way to go beyond the mold.

Actually, I fully expect LT to disappoint this year. Not that I wouldn't take him #1 overall, but he had possibly the best year any RB has ever had in the history of the NFL. He's coming back to earth almost for sure, even if he's still the top fantasy RB. I think the main reason myself and others rank him #1 is no one is more of a lock to finish top 3 than him. That's his downside barring a freakish injury. That said, Jackson has shown quite enough to challenge for the top spot, and that's why I'd rather have the 2nd pick this year, because these two guys are close, but in a tier of their own.

LT's pocket Aces. S-Jax is like having pocket Kings. Every other RB is Ace with a non-face card suited at best.

[Decleater]

That's why I have LT and S. Jackson doing the 1 and 1A. Could go either way, but in my gut gotta go with the up and comer in Jackson this season. Hey, not everyone will agree with my top 10, but ya gotta go with the odds. All the "experts" have the top 10 guys who basically finished in the top 10 statistically last season. That AINT gonna happen....see about 4-5 of those in it actually making it back historically. That's why I have some of those up and coming guys in there and took guys like LJ and SA out. Too many what if's and if 5-6 aint gonna make it back, that should be 2 of them right there. Let's just hope that Jackson isn't an Anna Kornikova hand....beautiful to look aint, but won't win you jack squat!

[Drew_70]

It's about time someone goes against the grain in projections .TO all those saying your on crack etc.....whatever! ...Those guys just project off last year stats, etc and "go with the flow"...scared of criticism by their peers. A post that goes against the norm and you are allready being labeled/ridiculed. I had #1 pick in redraft and seriously thought about SJax as #1. Almost flipped a coin.

I can't wait for your TOP 10 WR LOCK!

[Decleater]

Thanks Drew_70. Well, that's just it....ya gotta go against the grain, especially off crap stats from last season. It's just not gonna win ya a championship in my opinion. The stats don't lie man! Only 4-5 of the top 10 RB's will make it there again....that's it. So, gotta look at who's in the best situation to crack that 10 spot. Also, if everyone would get off the "gotta have a feature back" BS, they would see more opportunity actually. There's about 10-15 RB's who are in good postitions to have great value even in a RBBC. That's a nice number in my book! Hmmm, top WR....a little more tricky on those guys. They jockey around so much and there's always someone that comes outa nowhere, ala Colston. Hey, maybe you wanna give it a shot?