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Reggie Bush? Really??

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Re: Reggie Bush? Really??

Postby steelerfan513 » Thu Aug 09, 2007 2:47 pm

Personally I'm not as high on him either because he won't be able to reach his full potential until Deuce is out of the picture. That being said, he is still a talented running back and is a riskier pickup than others. I've avoided him because I like guys with fewer risk factors, but I'd probably take him in the early second round if he was there. There are just enough other running backs that don't carry the risks he does.
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Re: Reggie Bush? Really??

Postby Plindsey88 » Thu Aug 09, 2007 2:59 pm

Let's do a quick comparison of likely stat lines:

Willie Parker - 1,300 rushing yards, 40 receptions, 300 receiving yards, 15 total TD's = 290 FFP's

Reggie Bush - 700 rushing yards, 90 receptions, 700 receiving yards, 8 total TD's = 278 FFP's

Rudi Johnson - 1,300 rushing yards, 20 receptions, 150 receiving yards, 14 total TD's = 249 FFP's

All those seem like realistic projections to me... And according to my math that puts Reggie solidly between Parker and Rudi, which is mid-1st round caliber... I don't see any reason to think that any of these guys will vary much from those projections... If any of the three were to experience a drop-off, I would actually expect it to be Parker...
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Re: Reggie Bush? Really??

Postby Al and Almas » Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:04 pm

Plindsey88 wrote:Let's do a quick comparison of likely stat lines:

Willie Parker - 1,300 rushing yards, 40 receptions, 300 receiving yards, 15 total TD's = 290 FFP's

Reggie Bush - 700 rushing yards, 90 receptions, 700 receiving yards, 8 total TD's = 278 FFP's

Rudi Johnson - 1,300 rushing yards, 20 receptions, 150 receiving yards, 14 total TD's = 249 FFP's

All those seem like realistic projections to me... And according to my math that puts Reggie solidly between Parker and Rudi, which is mid-1st round caliber... I don't see any reason to think that any of these guys will vary much from those projections... If any of the three were to experience a drop-off, I would actually expect it to be Parker...



First, is that PPR?
Second, What do you have for Maroney?
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Re: Reggie Bush? Really??

Postby PMoneyTKE » Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:37 pm

Al and Almas wrote:I like Bush's upside this year also but is it worth it to take him over Maroney in the First round in a PPR league?


Yes....Maroney couldn't even stay healthy splitting time with Corey Dillon, you think he can handle a full load? He will be out with injury by week 7, write it down...
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Re: Reggie Bush? Really??

Postby Guru13 » Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:48 pm

biju wrote:Here was Bush's rushing/receiving stats from last year:

Code: Select all
First 8 games
-------------
Carries     Yards     YPC     TD     Rec     Yards     Avg     TD
81          207       2.55    0      46      312       6.8     0


Last 8 games
------------
Carries     Yards     YPC     TD     Rec     Yards     Avg     TD
74          360       4.86    6      42      430       10.2    2


Now, the 2nd set of numbers are pumped up by two very long catches, but you just can't take those away. Regardless, his rushing numbers look great in the second half and are probably the reason for the optimism.
Of course you can't take them away, IMO, you can't consider that as something to even skew(sp?) the stats because that's part of who Reggie Bush is, a guy that is gonna break a huge one every once in awhile and if you draft him you can expect that to happen.
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Re: Reggie Bush? Really??

Postby onnestabe » Thu Aug 09, 2007 4:08 pm

I have already drafted him in the first round in a couple of leagues, and I'm not thinking as much about yards or catches as I am thinking about his TD total. It took him half the season to score a non-return TD, and he started scoring them in bunches. Once he got healthier and started to figure out the NFL game, he showed how good his nose for the end zone is. Plinds has him projected to score 8 TDs, but I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see him get twice that number.

PS. One of the leagues that I drafted him in wasn't even PPR (taken at 1.10). That's how strongly I feel that he will improve on the TD numbers. Feel free to flame away on that pick, though. I'm not skeered }:-)
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Re: Reggie Bush? Really??

Postby skibrett15 » Thu Aug 09, 2007 4:24 pm

Plindsey88 wrote:Let's do a quick comparison of likely stat lines:

Willie Parker - 1,300 rushing yards, 40 receptions, 300 receiving yards, 15 total TD's = 290 FFP's

Reggie Bush - 700 rushing yards, 90 receptions, 700 receiving yards, 8 total TD's = 278 FFP's

Rudi Johnson - 1,300 rushing yards, 20 receptions, 150 receiving yards, 14 total TD's = 249 FFP's

All those seem like realistic projections to me... And according to my math that puts Reggie solidly between Parker and Rudi, which is mid-1st round caliber... I don't see any reason to think that any of these guys will vary much from those projections... If any of the three were to experience a drop-off, I would actually expect it to be Parker...

I think Rudi Could realistically get 1450 rushing yards. I also think Reggie could end up with 70 receptions as opposed to 90, but I also think he could eclipse 900 yards rushing so that's a wash assuming 1/10 and PPR.

PPR means point per reception to the guy who asked, it elevates the points for guys like Reggie bush in comparison to other RBs. Doesn't have that much of an effect on WRs as you'd think though with a few exceptions.

I think we could see a more even split of carries between deuce and Reggie. But I don't think we're gonna see any more total production out of the RB position, so that either cuts into receptions and rec yards or into deuce's numbers. Can't figure out which though.
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Re: Reggie Bush? Really??

Postby J35J » Thu Aug 09, 2007 7:33 pm

I've got Reggie at #11 in regular scoring.

800 rush yds
6 tds
800 rec yds
3 tds
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Re: Reggie Bush? Really??

Postby maddog60 » Thu Aug 09, 2007 7:53 pm

I like Bush a lot, but not as a 1st rounder this year. He's in the most sure RBBC in the entire league. That's cutting into my top pick's opportunity a lot if I make it Bush, and that's not something you want. In keeper or dynasty, he's totally understandable as a 1st rounder.
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Re: Reggie Bush? Really??

Postby mbuser » Thu Aug 09, 2007 7:54 pm

bush was 13th in yahoo scoring among RB last season, and i certainly don't expect him to regress this season. i'm more than happy with him as my 2nd RB. less catches but more carries
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