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The Great Antonio Gates! and the top 10 TE overview

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The Great Antonio Gates! and the top 10 TE overview

Postby jbrumley21 » Thu Aug 09, 2007 12:58 pm

I can believe there are people out here who think taking Gates in the 3rd round is a terrible Idea. The most common reason I hear from People Against Drafting Antiono Gates (or PADAGs as I call them) is that you can get value at the TE position late in the draft and It is stupid to pass on a WR1/2 or RB2.

Well here is the case for Gates...

- Gates is practically a #1 WR on a very good offense.

- His numbers will be on par with most 2nd tier WRs if not better.

- Eric Parker will now be missing some time (3 months). More looks his way

- fans of VBD will notice that he should land somewhere in rd 2/3

- Compared to other TE's, he is by far the #1 guy. But lets look at the problems facing the tier 2 TE's

- Heap - probably the best of the bunch, you can count on 5-6 TDs and 65 Recs 700 yards. not outstanding
- Crumpler - Who knows without Vick...stats last year were misleading as one huge game accounted for about 1/3 of his points. Injury in pre season
- Tony G. - getting older...not the threat he used to be...QB issues and poss RB issues
- Shockey - has all the potential in the world to be the #1 TE, but that NYG O just cant put it together for a full season. Unsure how the loss of Tiki will play out.
- V. Davis - huge upside...hasnt proven anything other than he is fast
- Witten - I dont think Tony Romo knows when this guy is on the field...One TD last year
- Cooley - should improve as campbell gets better
- Winslow - played great last season...injury concerns and new QB this season
- Watson - with new WR additions, his totals might go down
- L.J. Smith - always solid when healthy, never outstanding

My point is this...Having Gates at a TE will increase your chance to win. You are almost guaranteed points every week, while other owners are happy to get a couple catches and yards.

Im looking at taking gates with the 29th overall depending on who is left. Some people think Im crazy for it. Curious to see what the board thinks...

Right before the draft I tend to get too involved and need an outside opinion once in a while to bring me back to earth.
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Re: The Great Antonio Gates! and the top 10 TE overview

Postby Heimholder » Thu Aug 09, 2007 1:36 pm

I don't think you're crazy - 29th overall seems about right to me for Gates. I will be drafting about at that spot also this year, and it seems to be a common break-point for RB, QB and WR tiers - at least how I have things figured. You can either take the top guy in the next tier at one of those positions, or take Gates. There's just something to be said for having the sure thing. Yeah, you can get value TEs later in the draft, but how many weeks will you suffer waiting for them to pan out? You take Gates, and you get to ignore the TE position for the season.
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Re: The Great Antonio Gates! and the top 10 TE overview

Postby CBMGreatOne » Thu Aug 09, 2007 1:54 pm

Yeah, basically, I'm looking for a unique value at any given position for the first 5 or 6 rounds at least. There have been a couple of drafts I've done this year where in the 3rd or 4th round, I felt like there was a real leveling off of talent at all the major skill positions right before my pick. I think 29 is too early, as I'd rather grab a top WR like Reggie Wayne, Terrell Owens or Larry FItz, or a RB like Thomas Jones or Edge, or even a QB like Palmer, Brees, Brady, but if all of those guys are gone, I might take Gates. I'd probably try to wait one more round though.
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Re: The Great Antonio Gates! and the top 10 TE overview

Postby mystykoekaki » Thu Aug 09, 2007 2:12 pm

Yes, I would definately take Gates in the third round. The past few years in fantasy football I have had no TE, I used the "sleeper" approach. Everytime I faced a Gates owner, he had a very distinctive advantage over me, especially with the ability to score 3 TDs on any given week, MONEY!....watching these owners the past few years go into the playoffs with the highest pts attained and then winning it is devastating to the psych of a person who does good in the draft but because he doesn't have an elite player at one position fails to do as well. This year I will be getting Gates if it means reaching for him....why? ....because advantage over other owers, rarity at the position for the amount of points possible to score, constant points per week, and I know of some good WR/RB/QB sleepers for later rounds. Just some food for thought and thought I should share my experience and opinions.
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Re: The Great Antonio Gates! and the top 10 TE overview

Postby deacon » Thu Aug 09, 2007 2:25 pm

OK you just answered your own question.

You state "His numbers will be on par with most 2nd tier WRs if not better".

So would you draft a second tier WR in the 3rd round? I sure wouldn't!

TE is the least productive position on fantasy rosters that have anywhere near standard Yahoo scoring.

In my standard Yahoo league last year Gates scored a total of 139 pts. He was by far the highest scoring TE.
C0onversely the top K scored 155 pts.
The top Def scored 240 pts
The top WR scored 199 pts.
Top QB scored 407
Top RB scored 414

So just looking at the top scorers for each position the TE was almost 20 pts below even kickers!

Now for the sake of simplicity let's say the top teir at each position consists of the top 5 scorers:

The 5th best TE scored 104 pts. Difference of 35 pts from the top TE to the 5th best.
The 5th best K scored 130 pts. Difference of 25pts from the top scorer.
The 5th best Def scored 156pts. Difference of 84 pts from top.
The 5th best RB scored 246 pts. Difference of 168 pts
The 5th best QB scored 312 pts. Difference of 95 pts.

So you can see from the point differential between the best and the 5th best that it is much more important to go for top teir RBs and QBs than it is TEs and K.

10 times out of 10 I would rather draft a #1 WR or #2RB over that top TE. I will gladly give up that 35 total points and take the 5th best TE in the 6th or 7th round in order to get a better WR, RB, or QB in that same 3rd round position that you plan to take Gates.

Heck just doing the math Gates only got 2 or 3 more points per game average than the 5th best TE. Is that worth sacrificing a potential quality WR, RB, or QB?
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Re: The Great Antonio Gates! and the top 10 TE overview

Postby jmog » Thu Aug 09, 2007 2:58 pm

deacon wrote:
Now for the sake of simplicity let's say the top teir at each position consists of the top 5 scorers:

The 5th best TE scored 104 pts. Difference of 35 pts from the top TE to the 5th best.
The 5th best K scored 130 pts. Difference of 25pts from the top scorer.
The 5th best Def scored 156pts. Difference of 84 pts from top.
The 5th best RB scored 246 pts. Difference of 168 pts
The 5th best QB scored 312 pts. Difference of 95 pts.

So you can see from the point differential between the best and the 5th best that it is much more important to go for top teir RBs and QBs than it is TEs and K.

10 times out of 10 I would rather draft a #1 WR or #2RB over that top TE. I will gladly give up that 35 total points and take the 5th best TE in the 6th or 7th round in order to get a better WR, RB, or QB in that same 3rd round position that you plan to take Gates.

Heck just doing the math Gates only got 2 or 3 more points per game average than the 5th best TE. Is that worth sacrificing a potential quality WR, RB, or QB?


I notice you kept the WRs out of this part of your post (comparing #1 to #5 at each position).

The biggest reason in my mind to think about Gates in the 4th round is this.

In my leagues odd scoring, this is not Yahoo, WRs, from 1 to 10 or 1 to 20 were the closest bunched out of ANY position.

For instance in my league's scoring...

QBs from 1 to 10 last year was a difference of 12.2 pts/gm
RBs from 1to 10-18.9 pts/gm (24 pts/gm for 1 to 20)
WRs from 1 to 10-4.9 pts/gm (9.3 pts/gm for 1 to 20)
TEs from 1 to 10-8.5 pts/gm
Ks from 1 to 10-3.1 pts/gm
DSTs from 1 to 10-15.3 pts/gm

So, once you get past the top tier RBs/WRs/QBs, which is most definitely by the late 4th round, I would definitely take the absolute best TE over a WR2 or WR3.

The last couple years WRs have been a dime a dozen, I'll get one I can count on, but after that I may even go TE and DST (if a BAL or CHI is there) before getting my 2nd WR (my league only starts 2).

I plan on going...

RB
RB/WR
RB/WR (depending on 2nd)
QB/RB
QB/RB (depending on 4th)
TE/DST if Gates, Chi, or Bal is there...if they are gone already then I'll go WR
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Re: The Great Antonio Gates! and the top 10 TE overview

Postby steelerfan513 » Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:05 pm

Taking Gates early isn't a bad strategy, but I usually avoid it because I like to stock up on RBs and WRs. If I don't get Gates, I'll usually pick up a guy I feel is undervalued later on. I feel the same way about quarterbacks. If you don't get a top 6 guy, you're best off waiting until everyone else below them gets a quarterback and then picking up a couple sleepers. So I usually end up taking nothing but RBs and WRs for the first 6 or 7 rounds, maybe more.

And jmog, you shouldn't have a rigid plan of how you're going to draft. You'll need to adjust to how other people draft. Every draft is different. If everyone is taking running backs early, you may need to take a running back in the third round even if you used your first and second rounders on running backs as well.
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Re: The Great Antonio Gates! and the top 10 TE overview

Postby deacon » Thu Aug 09, 2007 3:16 pm

Sorry, leaving off the WR was just an oversight on my part. I have the numbers written down on my paper. #1 scored 199, #5 scored 172 for a difference of 27 pts. So it's even more important to go after the top QBs and RBs than WRs.
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Re: The Great Antonio Gates! and the top 10 TE overview

Postby jbrumley21 » Thu Aug 09, 2007 4:29 pm

deacon wrote:OK you just answered your own question.

You state "His numbers will be on par with most 2nd tier WRs if not better".

So would you draft a second tier WR in the 3rd round? I sure wouldn't!

TE is the least productive position on fantasy rosters that have anywhere near standard Yahoo scoring.

In my standard Yahoo league last year Gates scored a total of 139 pts. He was by far the highest scoring TE.
C0onversely the top K scored 155 pts.
The top Def scored 240 pts
The top WR scored 199 pts.
Top QB scored 407
Top RB scored 414

So just looking at the top scorers for each position the TE was almost 20 pts below even kickers!

Now for the sake of simplicity let's say the top teir at each position consists of the top 5 scorers:

The 5th best TE scored 104 pts. Difference of 35 pts from the top TE to the 5th best.
The 5th best K scored 130 pts. Difference of 25pts from the top scorer.
The 5th best Def scored 156pts. Difference of 84 pts from top.
The 5th best RB scored 246 pts. Difference of 168 pts
The 5th best QB scored 312 pts. Difference of 95 pts.

So you can see from the point differential between the best and the 5th best that it is much more important to go for top teir RBs and QBs than it is TEs and K.

10 times out of 10 I would rather draft a #1 WR or #2RB over that top TE. I will gladly give up that 35 total points and take the 5th best TE in the 6th or 7th round in order to get a better WR, RB, or QB in that same 3rd round position that you plan to take Gates.

Heck just doing the math Gates only got 2 or 3 more points per game average than the 5th best TE. Is that worth sacrificing a potential quality WR, RB, or QB?


I see what your saying, however I disagree with the number you put out. I know there is a difference between what gates does and what the guy 5 down can do, and how that wont relate to any other position.
But im talking the 3rd round here roughly pick 30 (Probably 20RBs gone, 7-8 wrs 1-2 qbs *rough numbers*)...so If I do those same projections with say the #21-26 RBs and the number 8-12 wrs, whats the differnce now?

I come up with a 17 point difference between RBs 21-27
and a 14 point difference between WRs 8-12
So I still see the value in taking Gates there...granted these numbers are misleading because this is the point where WRs fly off the board.

And the crazy thing is that I think Gates Had a down year last year...LT had a ton of TDs, and rivers was still learning.

I
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Re: The Great Antonio Gates! and the top 10 TE overview

Postby skibrett15 » Thu Aug 09, 2007 4:33 pm

Does anyone have the VBD numbers? from what I've seen they show that Gates lands somewhere in the 3rd round. Plus he's not gonna bust. That RB just might. It really depends on whether you're confident finding a WR or RB later in the draft, some people are and some aren't. I think it's a legitimate strategy assuming you can scrape Fred Taylor in the 5th or Ahman Green or someone like that.
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