deacon wrote:OK you just answered your own question.
You state "His numbers will be on par with most 2nd tier WRs if not better".
So would you draft a second tier WR in the 3rd round? I sure wouldn't!
Are you aware of the term depth? The top QBs will outshine any RB unless they're having a record setting year for RBs, but if more than 1 QB goes 1st round its quite abnormal. Why are you not advocating QB in the 3rd, they score a lot more on average than any WR you'll get there?
WRs have a ton of depth, and TEs have very little. More importantly, Gates outshines his peers by quite a bit more than the difference between taking that WR in round 3 or whoever you get in round 4. Every other potential top TE has a ton of question marks. Gates led the pack on a down year, by a healthy amount.
FYI, Skibrett, here's the VBD. According for footballguys, Antonio Gates had his lowest VBD of the past three seasons: 65. His previous VBDs were 93 and 105 ( ). Nevertheless, 65 VBD put him only behind 14 players. He was tied at #15 overall with Bulger, Vick, and Chad Johnson. Based on VBD, Gates is worth a early 2nd round pick. And while I do not put complete faith in VBD, you should feel 100% comfortable selecting Gates in the 3rd round.
stomperrob wrote:Gates numbers last year were not that far removed from the rest of the top TE's. If you go by std Yahoo scoring, the top 5 TE's scoring were:
Hopefully Gates' numbers are closer to his 2005 totals of 164 pts for an average of 10.3 pts/game
Even in a down year, he posted 1.3 more ppg than the 2nd best guy, which is greater than the difference between 2nd and 5th best. Considering Gates had 2 back to back years at his previous level, and that LT had a record setting year, which he's almost certain to come back down from, and that Phillip Rivers is a little more seasoned and probably more trusted to throw the ball, there's no reason for Gates not to post better numbers this year.
I am willing to sacrafice a few points a week to grab a top WR in the 3rd, top 5 QB in the 4th and then consider Heap/Shocky/Tony G/Davis/Winslow in the 5th-7th. You will have 2 solid RB's and a decent 3rd, 2 solid WR's, A top QB, and a top 5-7 TE who will score only a few points each week less than Gates by round 7.
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deacon wrote:OK you just answered your own question.
You state "His numbers will be on par with most 2nd tier WRs if not better".
So would you draft a second tier WR in the 3rd round? I sure wouldn't!
Are you aware of the term depth? The top QBs will outshine any RB unless they're having a record setting year for RBs, but if more than 1 QB goes 1st round its quite abnormal. Why are you not advocating QB in the 3rd, they score a lot more on average than any WR you'll get there? WRs have a ton of depth, and TEs have very little. More importantly, Gates outshines his peers by quite a bit more than the difference between taking that WR in round 3 or whoever you get in round 4. Every other potential top TE has a ton of question marks. Gates led the pack on a down year, by a healthy amount.
I was not advocating any pick. But I agree, I would take a top QB, Top WR, or second tier RB in the 3rd before I would take a TE even if it is Gates.
Cowboys 4 life wrote:If he is there in the 5th he is mine.
I am willing to sacrafice a few points a week to grab a top WR in the 3rd, top 5 QB in the 4th and then consider Heap/Shocky/Tony G/Davis/Winslow in the 5th-7th. You will have 2 solid RB's and a decent 3rd, 2 solid WR's, A top QB, and a top 5-7 TE who will score only a few points each week less than Gates by round 7.
If you can get Gates in the 5th, then I wanna join that league too.
Cowboys 4 life wrote:If he is there in the 5th he is mine.
I am willing to sacrafice a few points a week to grab a top WR in the 3rd, top 5 QB in the 4th and then consider Heap/Shocky/Tony G/Davis/Winslow in the 5th-7th. You will have 2 solid RB's and a decent 3rd, 2 solid WR's, A top QB, and a top 5-7 TE who will score only a few points each week less than Gates by round 7.
If you can get Gates in the 5th, then I wanna join that league too.
Yeah , no way is Gates available in any league(maybe a 6 teamer) in the 5th round.
Cowboys 4 life wrote:If he is there in the 5th he is mine.
I am willing to sacrafice a few points a week to grab a top WR in the 3rd, top 5 QB in the 4th and then consider Heap/Shocky/Tony G/Davis/Winslow in the 5th-7th. You will have 2 solid RB's and a decent 3rd, 2 solid WR's, A top QB, and a top 5-7 TE who will score only a few points each week less than Gates by round 7.
If you can get Gates in the 5th, then I wanna join that league too.
Yeah , no way is Gates available in any league(maybe a 6 teamer) in the 5th round.
Exactly. Thats why I won't get him.
I did get him in the 5th in a mock earlier in the year but don't even have him in my plans this year. No value whatsoever in the 3rd, even if he gets you 3 more TD's, 100 more yds, and a couple more catches. 40 points is easy to make up by selecting a top WR there instead of a top 15 in rd 4. Everyone knows that rd 3 is where the WR run starts.
Example top 5 wr Holt = 93/1188/10
#15 WR Burress = 63/988/10
There is 40 right there. And I get to build on some WR, RB, depth before I grab Heap in rd 6. No brainer for me. Let someone else grab him while I rake in the dividends.
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This is a very good discussion, and you both bring up a few excellent points.
One thing neither of you are considering when comparing production amongst #1-5 at various positions . . . you are equating point production ranking to draft selection order. In other words . . . Just because an RB is the 10th one taken doesn't mean he will be 10th in points at the end of this year.
In a sense this actually supports the drafting Gates early argument, because while we may have no clue who TE #5 will be, we are all pretty sure that TE #1 will be Gates. The #1 slot at any position is the one most likely to end up near that ranking in production at the end of the year. So maybe giving up a WR2 to get the #1 overall TE does make sense, because the #1 TE is much more likely to be #1 or 2 in production than the #8 WR is to be ranked 8th in production overall. (*of course, the #8 WR could be ranked higher or lower)
Personally though, I wouldn't consider Gates until the 4th, and even then I still may not take him, as my league starts 3 WRs and 2 RBs, so I still feel safer locking down a solid non-RBBC back than drafting a premiere TE.
Just my thoughts
*NOTE* I posted this after reading the first page. Didn't see the second page until after I posted. But the basic premise of my argument still applies though. Fortunately I think somebody will en dup drafting Gates way before I would consider taking him, so my problem is solved.
It's time to put down the crack-pipe and step away from the keyboard.
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by maddog60 » Thu Aug 09, 2007 6:43 pm 
). Nevertheless, 65 VBD put him only behind 14 players. He was tied at #15 overall with Bulger, Vick, and Chad Johnson. Based on VBD, Gates is worth a early 2nd round pick. And while I do not put complete faith in VBD, you should feel 100% comfortable selecting Gates in the 3rd round.
