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The Great Antonio Gates! and the top 10 TE overview

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Re: The Great Antonio Gates! and the top 10 TE overview

Postby maddog60 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:47 pm

Cowboys 4 life wrote:Exactly. Thats why I won't get him.

I did get him in the 5th in a mock earlier in the year but don't even have him in my plans this year. No value whatsoever in the 3rd, even if he gets you 3 more TD's, 100 more yds, and a couple more catches. 40 points is easy to make up by selecting a top WR there instead of a top 15 in rd 4. Everyone knows that rd 3 is where the WR run starts.

Example
top 5 wr
Holt = 93/1188/10

#15 WR
Burress = 63/988/10

There is 40 right there. And I get to build on some WR, RB, depth before I grab Heap in rd 6. No brainer for me. Let someone else grab him while I rake in the dividends.


Your example is flawed. Holt often won't make it out of the 2nd round, or at best he's gone 3 picks into the 3rd. Also, Burress is a late 4th round pick. Not to mention you're using 1 PPR which is not standard to get your 40 point difference.

I haven't seen anyone advocating Gates in the early 3rd, its middle to late 3rd, moreso late where he does have value.

The past months serious mocks on Antsports have Gates going on average 3.07, right ahead of Boldin, Andre Johnson, Housh, and Javon Walker.

Colston is average 4.04, then at 4.06 on average you've got Randy Moss, Donald Driver, and at 4.07 Lee Evans. Even using the PPR settings you used Driver finished 5th last year(8th in points per game), Lee Evans finished 7th (10th in points per game), so you're really looking at the top TE and a top 10, possibly top 5 WR in the 4th.

Then of course there is the depth issue none of this even accounts for. Gates is in a tier above all other TEs, but most of them are fairly close together. If you go by standard scoring, on his worst year as a starter so far, he average 9.2 ppg, 1.2 more ppg than the next best guy. That difference of 1.2 ppg, is what separates the 2nd and 7th best TEs. So if you're not going to get Gates, you're doing even worse if you dont wait for later and snag whoever out of the Gonzo, Crumpler, KW2, Shockey, Heap, VD cluster (or however you have it) falls out. Because there's so little separation there.

Late 3rd, unless the guy I truly want at WR is there, or I went Steve Smith in the 2nd and I'm looking for a RB, it makes a lot of sense to grab Gates if he's there. Especially when guys like Santana Moss and Darrell Jackson (3rd best ppg in standard formats last year btw) are dropping, and could easily turn out great #2 WR numbers.

Though all this being said, currently I think Winslow is the best value at TE. Roughly 4 rounds after Gates, and especially in a PPR, he becomes a great value pick. Though he is more risky being injury prone and less proven.
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Re: The Great Antonio Gates! and the top 10 TE overview

Postby NinoNazareno » Sat Aug 11, 2007 3:25 pm

This has been the dilemma I have been pondering over the last few days (and in the other forum). In a dynasty, is it worth giving up a top receiver (Lee Evans) along with a serviceable TE (Witten)to upgrade the TE position with Gates. (Wayne and Boldin are my other wrs).

There have some very good points made. But I keep coming back to the average points per game. Is it worth that 1.5 pts to make that move (draft or trade)? Do you sacrifice depth to have that slight point advantage at the weakest position in FF?
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Re: The Great Antonio Gates! and the top 10 TE overview

Postby zirco33 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 10:10 pm

ampant wrote:Personally though, I wouldn't consider Gates until the 4th, and even then I still may not take him, as my league starts 3 WRs and 2 RBs, so I still feel safer locking down a solid non-RBBC back than drafting a premiere TE.


I agree, round 3 is just too early. Even though he is virtually a lock to be #1 and puts up numbers like a top end #2WR, I would rather have a good #2 back or a top teir WR. I feel like people that stretch to draft Gates too early end up having limited depth and their team suffers in the long run.

There is a guy in one of my leagues that grabs Gates early every year... and every year his team has only 1 descent WR and 1RB. His team has never made the playoffs.
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Re: The Great Antonio Gates! and the top 10 TE overview

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Sun Aug 12, 2007 2:07 am

zirco33 wrote:Even though he is virtually a lock to be #1 and puts up numbers like a top end #2WR, I would rather have a good #2 back or a top teir WR. I feel like people that stretch to draft Gates too early end up having limited depth and their team suffers in the long run.


First of all you take your #2 back before you go for a TE. That was never a debate.


Now to Gates.
The fact:
Gates scored 164 pts in 2005 and 139 pts last year when LT had the unrepeatable year. So look for Gates to go back close to 2005 #s, with only one true WR option for Rivers to throw other then Gates.


So which #2WR in your opinion is better then Gates?
Cause I dont even have ten #1WRs better then Gates!!
(BTW I play in 12 team leagues)
The way I see it its not where I draft Gates, more like which WRs are still available when Gates is still there and my pick is comin up.
And there are only 8 WR I would take over Gates:
Steve Smith
Marvin Harrison
Tori Holt
Terrell Owens
Chad Johnson
Larry Fitzgerald
Roy Williams
Reggie Wayne

And only the top 5 looks like a sure thing, cause WRs are really inconsistent. Here are some #s.
How the Top 10 scoring WRs in 2005 played in 2006:

name 2005 - 2006
Steve Smith 227 pts - 169 pts
Larry Fitzgerald 198 pts - 126 pts
Santana Moss 192 pts - 116 pts
Chad Johnson 190 pts - 172 pts
Torry Holt 180 pts - 172 pts
Joey Galloway 180 pts - 141 pts
Anquan Boldin 178 pts - 139 pts
Marvin Harrison 177 pts - 199
Chris Chambers 176 pts - 89 pts
Hines Ward 156 pts - 127 pts


How about last years top ten picks by Sportingnews:
1 Steve Smith
2 Chad Johnson
3 Torry Holt
4 Marvin Harrison
5 Randy Moss - bust
6 Terrell Owens
7 Larry Fitzgerald - bust
8 Anquan Boldin - nothing special
9 Chris Chambers - huge bust
10 Hines Ward - bust
11 Santana Moss - bust


And by Craig Rondinone SportsTicker Contributing Writer, August 18, 2006

1. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals: Number one? Him? Most fantasy pundits might disagree, but remember his 102 receptions and 1,402 yards last year came in just 13 games.
2. Chad Johnson, Bengals: Talks the biggest game in the business, and walks the walk 99.9 percent of the time.
3. Steve Smith, Panthers: His 1,563 receiving yards and 103 catches were tops among receivers last season, and there is no reason to think he cannot duplicate those numbers this season.
4. Terrell Owens, Cowboys: T.O. leaves the West Coast offense behind, but something tells me Bill Parcells will find ways to get him the football on the move.
5. Chris Chambers, Dolphins: I think a Culpepper-to-Chambers combination could be just as dangerous as Culpepper-to-Moss was in Minnesota.
6. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals: No one is harder to defend in the end zone than this guy with the Kobe Bryant-like vertical jump.
7. Marvin Harrison, Colts: Seven straight seasons of at least 82 receptions, 1,100 yards and double-digit touchdowns.
8. Torry Holt, Rams: Six consecutive 1,300-yard years is something no one else on this list can boast.
9. Randy Moss, Raiders: Back-to-back years where he kept playing even when he was injured killed his fantasy owners. This year Randy, sit on the sidelines when you are only at 50 percent.
10. Andre Johnson, Texans: Throw 2005 out the window and prepare for a monster season.

We all know how ridiculous this look now.
And I could go on but I think I made my point.
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Re: The Great Antonio Gates! and the top 10 TE overview

Postby Cowboys 4 life » Sun Aug 12, 2007 8:54 am

maddog60 wrote:Your example is flawed. Holt often won't make it out of the 2nd round, or at best he's gone 3 picks into the 3rd. Also, Burress is a late 4th round pick. Not to mention you're using 1 PPR which is not standard to get your 40 point difference.

I haven't seen anyone advocating Gates in the early 3rd, its middle to late 3rd, moreso late where he does have value.

The past months serious mocks on Antsports have Gates going on average 3.07, right ahead of Boldin, Andre Johnson, Housh, and Javon Walker.

Colston is average 4.04, then at 4.06 on average you've got Randy Moss, Donald Driver, and at 4.07 Lee Evans. Even using the PPR settings you used Driver finished 5th last year(8th in points per game), Lee Evans finished 7th (10th in points per game), so you're really looking at the top TE and a top 10, possibly top 5 WR in the 4th.

Then of course there is the depth issue none of this even accounts for. Gates is in a tier above all other TEs, but most of them are fairly close together. If you go by standard scoring, on his worst year as a starter so far, he average 9.2 ppg, 1.2 more ppg than the next best guy. That difference of 1.2 ppg, is what separates the 2nd and 7th best TEs. So if you're not going to get Gates, you're doing even worse if you dont wait for later and snag whoever out of the Gonzo, Crumpler, KW2, Shockey, Heap, VD cluster (or however you have it) falls out. Because there's so little separation there.

Late 3rd, unless the guy I truly want at WR is there, or I went Steve Smith in the 2nd and I'm looking for a RB, it makes a lot of sense to grab Gates if he's there. Especially when guys like Santana Moss and Darrell Jackson (3rd best ppg in standard formats last year btw) are dropping, and could easily turn out great #2 WR numbers.

Though all this being said, currently I think Winslow is the best value at TE. Roughly 4 rounds after Gates, and especially in a PPR, he becomes a great value pick. Though he is more risky being injury prone and less proven.


As I said Holt is typically a 3rd rounder unless someone has him as a top 3 this year. Burress has an ADP of 5:7 on FF Calculator and gates as a 4:3. To get that 4:3 you have some people stretching for him in the 3rd (I have seen idiots take him before Holt) and some waiting till sometime in the 4th. And he is only getting you 1 point something more per week. You also only need to start 1 TE. You start 3 WR in most leagues.

No doubt Gates is better than the rest. But if I really want to make up a point I can do it with a decent Kicker in the last round. I personally love seeing him go in the 3rd because that is 1 extra top WR, like the ones you mentioned, that might make it to me. So I lose a point by selecting Heap 2-3 rds later. I also gain at least that by picking a WR in rd 3.

Bottom line is it is just a difference of preference. I simply don't see value in stretching for a TE who I only need to start 1 for a measily 1.5 pts per wk. All in all its a wash. You either want a top 5 Wr and a #2-3 TE or you want gates and a top 10-15 WR as your #1. I'd rather have the WR all day because I need to field 3. Last year I took Heap in the 6th and grabbed Dez Clark off the wire in wk 2. My best friend grabbed Gates in the 3rd and was not happy with the results. He sucked at WR all year.

I will take RB, RB, Wr, RB, QB, WR, WR, TE (cooley or Winslow). My roster will look something like this with 2nd pick, SJax, MJD, (Holt, Marvin, CJ), A Green, Brees, Coles, CJ2, Cooley vs SJax, MJD, Gates, J Walker, L Evans, (norwood, caddy, ADP, Marshawn), Romo.

I like roster 1 all day. Like I said if Gates makes it to the 5th he is mine but otherwise he doesn't fit into my strategy.
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Re: The Great Antonio Gates! and the top 10 TE overview

Postby deacon » Mon Aug 13, 2007 8:20 am

ampant wrote:This is a very good discussion, and you both bring up a few excellent points.

One thing neither of you are considering when comparing production amongst #1-5 at various positions . . . you are equating point production ranking to draft selection order. In other words . . . Just because an RB is the 10th one taken doesn't mean he will be 10th in points at the end of this year.

In a sense this actually supports the drafting Gates early argument, because while we may have no clue who TE #5 will be, we are all pretty sure that TE #1 will be Gates. The #1 slot at any position is the one most likely to end up near that ranking in production at the end of the year. So maybe giving up a WR2 to get the #1 overall TE does make sense, because the #1 TE is much more likely to be #1 or 2 in production than the #8 WR is to be ranked 8th in production overall. (*of course, the #8 WR could be ranked higher or lower)
Personally though, I wouldn't consider Gates until the 4th, and even then I still may not take him, as my league starts 3 WRs and 2 RBs, so I still feel safer locking down a solid non-RBBC back than drafting a premiere TE.

Just my thoughts

*NOTE* I posted this after reading the first page. Didn't see the second page until after I posted. But the basic premise of my argument still applies though. Fortunately I think somebody will en dup drafting Gates way before I would consider taking him, so my problem is solved.


You are way overthinking this thing. In fantasy football the only thing that matters is the number of points you score, period! A TE , even the #1 TE, will not score as many points as a lower 1st tier WR or upper 2nd Tier WR or RB. At the end of the day its about total points scored and no TE will give the production that a wisely chosen WR, RB, or QB should get at that draft position.
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Re: The Great Antonio Gates! and the top 10 TE overview

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Mon Aug 13, 2007 8:46 am

deacon wrote:In fantasy football the only thing that matters is the number of points you score, period! A TE , even the #1 TE, will not score as many points as a lower 1st tier WR or upper 2nd Tier WR or RB.


Thats not true.
Proof is in my earlier post.
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Re: The Great Antonio Gates! and the top 10 TE overview

Postby johnny p » Mon Aug 13, 2007 10:25 am

For the "value add" you can usually get a TE later that will put up good numbers for the position you drafted him in. If you're torn between a starting WR and the TE, get the WR, because here's my thinking.......

You have no WR, there is a WR available that will give you 160 points, or Gates will give you 170 points..... if you take gates, the next WR available might be worth 140 points, then the next would give you 120 we'll say....

SO, gates 160 + WR1, and WR2 at 140 +120 you got 420, Now DON'T take gates, and get the WR1 and WR2 at better positions, 160 + 140 then The 5th or 6th best TE would be 130 pts.. 430 Pts.... but I think the difference you see will be even greater. The difference gap in WR is greater than TEs.
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Re: The Great Antonio Gates! and the top 10 TE overview

Postby WickedSmaat » Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:05 am

johnny p wrote:For the "value add" you can usually get a TE later that will put up good numbers for the position you drafted him in. If you're torn between a starting WR and the TE, get the WR, because here's my thinking.......

You have no WR, there is a WR available that will give you 160 points, or Gates will give you 170 points..... if you take gates, the next WR available might be worth 140 points, then the next would give you 120 we'll say....

SO, gates 160 + WR1, and WR2 at 140 +120 you got 420, Now DON'T take gates, and get the WR1 and WR2 at better positions, 160 + 140 then The 5th or 6th best TE would be 130 pts.. 430 Pts.... but I think the difference you see will be even greater. The difference gap in WR is greater than TEs.


Fuzzy math, you say Gates will get you 170 then in your equation you only give him 160 and that 10 is the difference the you're trying to show. Fuzzy Math.

From #6 to # 20 last year in WRs, there was a 40 point difference. From #1 TE to #2 was 20 and that was a down year. There's more of a discrepancy that can justify taking Gates and grabbing one if not 2 of those top 20 WRs coming back around, it is feasible because not everyone is grabbing WRs at that moment.

I think there are two things you either have to do if you don't get a top pick, either get a great QB early or try and get Gates. I believe you need a difference maker at either of those positions to make the playoffs instead of just trying to get by with the lesser players. You still need to build depth but I think you hinder yourself if you wait on both of those positions.
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