What do you rely on? - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

What do you rely on?

Moderator: Football Moderators

What do you rely on?

Postby deacon » Fri Aug 10, 2007 12:21 pm

As I look through the many threads and the various questions asked I have noticed a few things.

I see many people seem to base their answers on things like a players VBD number or their ADP value and so on and so forth.

Just wondering, how many of you base your fantasy decisions solely on equational data that is gathered from some fantasy site or so-called expert analyst? Now I understand the value of such data to an extent but I think it is only a part of the overall evaluation of a players fantasy value.

Just to give an example lets look at Larry Johnson. According to every VBD etc that you can find he should be a top 3 pick. But as I look at him I can't help but consider that his 2 best blockers (Roaf, Shields) have retired in successive years and the player brought in to replace Roaf (Damion McIntosh) is now out with a knee injury. The Chiefs starting left tackle is now a converted defensive lineman. Add to that the fact LJ had over 400 carries last year, and the fact that he is currently holding out (which prevents him from getting in proper football shape). With all that I just can't see LJ being in the top 7 or 8 for fantasy value this year. (don't forget the QB issues)

So do you analyse real world data and draw conclusions yourself, or do you depend on the myriad of calculations produced by other websites and experts analysts?
Bacon is the greatest meat of all!
deacon
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar

Posts: 792
Joined: 7 Sep 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: South of Atlanta

Re: What do you rely on?

Postby northcuttfan » Fri Aug 10, 2007 12:25 pm

ya i myself dont go by the rankings like LJ and Gore goin 3,4 that type fo stuff...
Image
northcuttfan
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff

User avatar

Posts: 244
Joined: 8 Oct 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Florida

Re: What do you rely on?

Postby beanoX3 » Fri Aug 10, 2007 12:29 pm

Just like anything else that need decisions, more than one source should be factored in along with a good dose of personal expectation/experience.

I'm sure people can have a sucessful fantasy football season going with just one fantasy publication, but IMO, to ignore one's own personal research and observations is just boring. It wouldn't really be you managing a fantasy team then, would it?
:-b
The cake is a lie.
beanoX3
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar

Posts: 5971
Joined: 14 Feb 2006
Home Cafe: Football

Re: What do you rely on?

Postby deacon » Fri Aug 10, 2007 1:44 pm

beanoX3 wrote:Just like anything else that need decisions, more than one source should be factored in along with a good dose of personal expectation/experience.

I'm sure people can have a sucessful fantasy football season going with just one fantasy publication, but IMO, to ignore one's own personal research and observations is just boring. It wouldn't really be you managing a fantasy team then, would it?
:-b


Yeah, that's what I say. Just seems that it would be awful boring if all you did was base all your dicisions on someone elses calculations.
Bacon is the greatest meat of all!
deacon
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar

Posts: 792
Joined: 7 Sep 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: South of Atlanta

Re: What do you rely on?

Postby biju » Fri Aug 10, 2007 1:48 pm

This year is the first year I've tried to do my own projections, but I have been comparing them against some of the other sites' projections to see if I'm at least in the ballpark.

In the past, however, I have never completely used one site's projections or rankings. I had always used these as a good "starting point" but I quickly would tweak anything that didn't look good to me based on my own observations and experiences. I don't believe in the "fantasy experts" more than I do the people here at the Cafe and my own knowledge.
Image
biju
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 5941
Joined: 6 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Seattle - Ballard

Re: What do you rely on?

Postby onnestabe » Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:26 pm

deacon wrote:Just to give an example lets look at Larry Johnson. According to every VBD etc that you can find he should be a top 3 pick. But as I look at him I can't help but consider that his 2 best blockers (Roaf, Shields) have retired in successive years and the player brought in to replace Roaf (Damion McIntosh) is now out with a knee injury. The Chiefs starting left tackle is now a converted defensive lineman. Add to that the fact LJ had over 400 carries last year, and the fact that he is currently holding out (which prevents him from getting in proper football shape). With all that I just can't see LJ being in the top 7 or 8 for fantasy value this year. (don't forget the QB issues)


First off, these factors aren't ignored in a VBD system, because VBD is based on the stat projections you make for players. Your stat projections should take all of these issues into account, so your VBD cheatsheet will automatically take this into account as well.

But personally, I don't like to deal with all of that. I think it works, but it's too much of a time commitment for me. I just stay up on the player news, personnel moves, depth charts, etc. so that I can have an accurate idea of what to expect from each player come draft time. I'm sure there are things that I miss this way, but I think I still give myself a good chance to win without having to break my neck going through the number-crunching.
onnestabe
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicCafe RankerEagle Eye
Posts: 4074
Joined: 6 Oct 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Cincinnati - West Price Hill

Re: What do you rely on?

Postby RJ24VC15 » Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:58 pm

I pretty much do my own rankings, decide where I think guys should be taken and look at ADP to see when I should pick players.
Image
RJ24VC15
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar
Cafe Writer
Posts: 783
Joined: 27 Jul 2006
Home Cafe: Football

Re: What do you rely on?

Postby skapur20 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 12:31 am

RJ24VC15 wrote:I pretty much do my own rankings, decide where I think guys should be taken and look at ADP to see when I should pick players.


i pretty much do the same. its all between the ears. most of it is all through personal experience, seeing a guy play, watching the offense they play in, and just gut feeling about certain players.

and then theres also the personal hatred of players(yeah i know, shouldnt let it decide who i pick on my FANTASY team)

but i cant help it... theres just some players i wont ever take, never have never will.
skapur20
Water Boy
Water Boy


Posts: 26
Joined: 21 Apr 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball


Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests

cron
Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 15:21 hours
(and 35 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact