deacon wrote:Just to give an example lets look at Larry Johnson. According to every VBD etc that you can find he should be a top 3 pick. But as I look at him I can't help but consider that his 2 best blockers (Roaf, Shields) have retired in successive years and the player brought in to replace Roaf (Damion McIntosh) is now out with a knee injury. The Chiefs starting left tackle is now a converted defensive lineman. Add to that the fact LJ had over 400 carries last year, and the fact that he is currently holding out (which prevents him from getting in proper football shape). With all that I just can't see LJ being in the top 7 or 8 for fantasy value this year. (don't forget the QB issues)
First off, these factors aren't ignored in a VBD system, because VBD is based on the stat projections you make for players. Your stat projections should take all of these issues into account, so your VBD cheatsheet will automatically take this into account as well.
But personally, I don't like to deal with all of that. I think it works, but it's too much of a time commitment for me. I just stay up on the player news, personnel moves, depth charts, etc. so that I can have an accurate idea of what to expect from each player come draft time. I'm sure there are things that I miss this way, but I think I still give myself a good chance to win without having to break my neck going through the number-crunching.