As many people have discussed on this board, there is a solid selection of QBs that are going relatively late in drafts. I personally would not be comfortable with taking just one of these late round guys without immediately taking another "just in case". Of course, knowing when one QB has a bad matchup and your #2 has a good matchup would be crucial here, and not entirely impossible to predict.
Has anybody done the homework to figure out what pairs of late-round QBs have at least one good matchup each week?
Example: In this example I used the Cafe's ranking of Defenses to choose the bottom 15, and AntSports to choose two QBs getting picked past round 10
Jacksonville and Baltimore (ADP: Steve McNair: 11.11, Byron Leftwich: 12.11)are two QBs that have good matchups combined the entire year. Jacksonville and Baltimore only play three top 10 defenses this year, while Jacksonville plays 11 games against bottom 15 defenses and Baltimore plays 8 games against bottom 15 defenses. (For the record, these were the first two teams/QBs I picked so there could be better matchups).
Between these two teams there are only two weeks where they aren't playing a bottom 15 defense, and both of these week are against non-top 10 teams (for those keeping track at home these are Jacksonville at Tampa Bay (week 8) and Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (week 15)). I also particularly liked the fact that these teams both are considered to have two of the best defenses (plenty of stops/short field cases) in the league.
I'm sure there are more combinations that work well or better (Jacksonville will probably match up pretty well with most other teams). As a side note, it might be a better idea to take the teams with bad defenses AND offenses out of the equation since they'll likely be getting beat and the 4th quarter will be mostly running the clock out. At any rate, it's never a bad thing for your QB to be in the red zone.
Jimboozie wrote:Nice research. However, I'd have to set the odds of both Leftwich and McNair staying healthy all year, at 1 to 50.
Yeah, I actually chose those two teams based on the defenses within their division. After I had written all of this up I thought there's no way in hell I'd draft these two guys. But at the same time I was just hoping to get the ball rolling and for someone else to look into it at well. I'm still working on it myself as there much be better folks to choose from.
I Think you can stike gold using this stategy if...you make Jake Delhomme one of those QBs. The guy has bounce back year written all over him. I think he will be a top 8 QB by years end, and you can get him in the last couple rounds
Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. Fourty percent of people know that.
J.P. Losman (ADP: 11.11) looks like he might have a tough time this year. He has 9 games (one in week 17) played against top 10 defenses and only 3 against bottom 15 defenses (one of which is week 15).
Jake Delhomme (ADP: 10.05) has a fairly good schedule. He has only two games against top 10 defenses (although one is week 16!) and 9 against bottom 15 teams.
Alex Smith (ADP: 10.09) has only two games against top 10 defenses and 8 (one in week 17) against bottom 15 defenses.
When you mean bottom 15 defenses, are you thinking pass defenses, or total defenses?
Also, another wrinkle to consider are QBs on teams with bad defenses that play bad pass defenses. That would heighten the chances of huge games, no?
14 Team w/FLX .5PPR The Porkchop Express QB: Carson Palmer, Vince Young RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte, Reggie Bush, Tim Hightower WR: Greg Jennings, Anquan Boldin, Terrell Owens, Jabar Gaffney TE: John Carlson, Ben Watson PK: R Gould TD: NO, TB