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How early to take elite WRs?

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How early to take elite WRs?

Postby jeru » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:47 pm

I am able to fairly easily make a RB and WR cheat sheet, but where I have a problem is pinpointing at what point you should go with Steve Smith or Chad Johnson ahead of a RB. Does anyone have any suggestions what pick you would hit a WR in a point/reception league?
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Re: How early to take elite WRs?

Postby Max Power » Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:24 pm

I would say after the top 10 backs go...
but you could really make a case for the top 13 backs...then I think the real gap starts

not before

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Re: How early to take elite WRs?

Postby mystykoekaki » Tue Aug 14, 2007 10:38 pm

Well for most leagues taking a RB in round 1 is manditory, so we will throw that aside. Round 2 you have a choice and it depends on where you draft, if you draft 1-5 you might want to think about taking an elite WR just because the RB dropoff already has occurred around this time. And in the past few weeks in Yahoo! leagues I was able to get a decent RB2/backup RB in round 3-4, so it usually is a good thing to get a decent/elite WR to bolster your WR corp. The real question should be "when should I take a WR" seeing that if you draft early you might not even get the chance to get an "elite" WR. Good luck!
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Re: How early to take elite WRs?

Postby aaawall91 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:20 pm

Really depends on how you feel about the backs left...if you aren't diggin any of those take a Elite WR and try and start a WR pick spree (or continue it!) so you can have a better choice of backs fall to you.
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Re: How early to take elite WRs?

Postby Snakes Gould » Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:33 am

i think theres a good amount of top tier wr's this year that i would still go rb rb if possible. every situation is different.
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Re: How early to take elite WRs?

Postby BrutallyHuge » Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:57 am

My general rule of thumb is that if I draft early (top 1-4 picks), I usually take a stud WR in the 2nd. If I'm drafting late in the 1st, I'll take another RB in the 2nd.

If it were me, I'd take Maroney and McGahee before I'd take a WR. If PPR, Bush goes 1st round. If not, I'd probably take SS or Chad over him.
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Re: How early to take elite WRs?

Postby Azrael » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:09 pm

Max Power wrote:I would say after the top 10 backs go...
but you could really make a case for the top 13 backs...then I think the real gap starts

not before

LT
LJ
SJax
Gore
Addai
SA
Westy
Parker
Rudi
Henry


Maroney
McGahee


To me there is a monster drop off from these backs to the next (save a healthy Portis; but we probably won't know that before the season starts). I would not take any WRs in probably an 8 team or greater league before these backs are gone.

I certainly wouldn't take CJ. Dude is overrated. Housh will produce more consistently and you can get him about 15-20 picks later.
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Re: How early to take elite WRs?

Postby WannabeGuru » Thu Aug 16, 2007 12:35 am

This is an issue I`m debating right now, I picked 8th in a 10 team league and I would be assured a top 3 WR if took one in the 2nd round. On the other hand if I picked a RB 2nd, the chances are low of me getting an "elite" WR. What it comes down to I suppose is will the 2nd tier RB equal the output of the top 3 WR. So I`m looking at guys like E.James, R.Johnson, McGahee, R.Brown vs Chad Johnson, Reggie Wayne, SS, T.Holt. In a PPR league its going to be very hard NOT to take the WR, but then I'm looking at a potentially poor crop of RB's for the 2nd and 3rd RB's on my team.
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Re: How early to take elite WRs?

Postby dgan » Thu Aug 16, 2007 1:07 am

There are two ways to approach this: When are they a better value than the best available RB, or what WR can I get with my next pick?

In the first scenario (pick where they're valued), I have the most significant dropoff at RB after about 13 - 15, depending on your scoring system. You're really hard-pressed at that point to take a Benson or Lynch over Steve Smith. The main reason is that other owners may feel the same way and avoid RB as well, so you could possibly get your targeted RB in the next round anyway, or at least someone close to it. The problem here is that, if you're wrong and 8 more RBs go before you pick again, you just screwed yourself.

That's why some people go with the latter approach (determine your strategy solely on what WR you can get the following round). For example, the difference between the top 8 WRs I predict will be less than 1 fantasy point per week in my league (I'm not buying Steve Smith as that much better than everyone else). It may be better to gamble getting the 6th best WR later on, and go ahead and bite the bullet on a lesser RB early on.

So it depends on how you value Steve Smith, and how you expect the other owners to draft. If you think Smith is going to be studly, you probably will want to take him wherever you have that big dropoff at RB. If you think other owners will go RB no matter what, then you can get a nearly equivelant Holt or Wayne, or even Owens (who might be a good value pick in many leagues) later on. Go ahead and take that RB.

It's a lot easier to have a patchwork WR group on your fantasy team than a RB group. So, when in doubt, go RB. Nothing sucks worse than using a 2nd round pick on Steve Smith only to see Marvin Harrison available when you pick in the 3rd...and the best RB available is now Marion Barber.
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Re: How early to take elite WRs?

Postby BrutallyHuge » Thu Aug 16, 2007 9:52 am

WannabeGuru wrote:This is an issue I`m debating right now, I picked 8th in a 10 team league and I would be assured a top 3 WR if took one in the 2nd round. On the other hand if I picked a RB 2nd, the chances are low of me getting an "elite" WR. What it comes down to I suppose is will the 2nd tier RB equal the output of the top 3 WR. So I`m looking at guys like E.James, R.Johnson, McGahee, R.Brown vs Chad Johnson, Reggie Wayne, SS, T.Holt. In a PPR league its going to be very hard NOT to take the WR, but then I'm looking at a potentially poor crop of RB's for the 2nd and 3rd RB's on my team.


I would rather have Rudi or McGahee or Ronnie over the top WRs. It would be a tough choice on Edge, but I'd still probably take him over the top WRs. Once you get past those guys and into the Lynch, Jacobs, Benson, MBIII region...then it get trickier.

In your position, I would go RB-RB. I don't think the top WRs are as clear-cut this year. IMO, there is about 11 top guys (SS, Chad, Harrison, Holt, Wayne, TO, Fitz, ROY, R.Moss, Evans, and Boldin). After that, I think there's a little bit of a dropoff into the Walker, Housh, Burress, AJ range. Since there's so many differing opinions on the top 2 WRs, you really have no idea how this will turn out. Wayne or Roy could be #1 by season's end, so it's not necessary to take someone like Harrison or Holt so early.
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