He just seems like the most sure thing for huge numbers outside the top 2. He had a very good season last year and now is on a team where scrubs run for 1000 yards. I'd rather him than older guys that have a lot of question marks, or young guys that have never carried the load.
No you're not crazy I have him there too, which means you can't be crazy. but seriously the guys set to have a great season, top 5 numbers easy, and the only reason it's hard to draft him that early as I said in another thread is that a lot of people don't have him ranked that high and he might get back to you in the second round, but that's becoming more and more unlikely as the days go by.
Henry and Alexander area a toss up for the #5 in my rankings.
Things going for Henry
1. Most denver RBs produce very good numbers 2. Shanny stated that he doesnt want the game won or lost on cutlers arm. Meaning they will be running early and often this year. 3. Denver has a very solid D and wont be pulled into too many shootouts...ball control late in the game 4. Denver weather once it gets late into the season is very condusive to a ball control running team. 5. I think it will still be an RBBC...but split somewhere along 80% henry 20% Bell. Still giving Henry 20+ touches a game 6. I have not scene Culter play much, however typically a young QB will use the RB checkdown often, which is good for PPR leagues. 7. Broncos do have some receiving threats, which will keep teams from stacking the box 8. Henry has proven the abilty to carry the load when healthy 9. Broncos have a nice schedule vs the run this year...(22nd overall I think) 10. Playoffs will consist of KC, @Hou, & @SD
So of course Henry does have a few things going aginst him... Injury history possability of a full on RBBC if he stuggles early (bell looked good in preseason) Cutler could take a step backwards, leaving the Denver Offense a very average group.
I really see portis type numbers for Henry in DEN this year.
Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. Fourty percent of people know that.
I'm really high on Henry, but here's my breakdown:
Top backs are LT and SJax - they have the least amount of questions. After that, LJ is no guarantee, Gore is injury prone, and Addai has never played a full season with a full load. I rate the 6 or 7 backs after the top 2 all together as 1 tier. That looks like this (in no particular order):
- Gore - Injury prone, minus Norv Turner but with same team, same situation, etc. - Addai - Never proved it for a full year as the man but in a great offense (especially in a PPR) - Henry - Very proven even in bad situations, with best running team in NFL over last few years - suspended for 1 year if he has another violation, tends to get dinged up - Maroney - slight injury concerns, same worries as Addai above, but in featured role on a high powered offense and has big skills. - Alexander - injury concerns, wear and tear over the last 6 or 7 awesome seasons - Fast Willie - new coach, lack of offense around him concerns - proved he could do it for a whole season - Rudi - Mr. Consistent - LJ - holdout issues (may be over though), wear and tear concerns, overuse, QB issues, OLine issues
All these guys have issues and to me they are all in the same tier of value so you just pick what you feel will work out the best, knowing that they all have big upside and question marks too. I feel that LJ, Maroney, Henry, and Addai have the most upside to this group, but also the most questions too probably so it balances out. Hope that helps...
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1. LT 2. SJ 3. LJ 4. SA 5. Gore or Addai 6. Several 2nd tier backs including Henry
The main problem I see with selecting Henry top five is that Denver can switch RBs from week to week. You never know who the starter will be. Is Henry good enough to stop that RB rotation? Time will tell. I like his upside but not enough to put him top 5.
Yes, I think you are. Call me a hater, but look at this:
1) The Broncos starting O-Line averages 32 years old. 2) The Broncos have a 2nd year QB with an average to below crop of WR's. 3) The Broncos have been known to spread out the carries somewhat. 4) Henry will be 29 in October. 5) Henry's highest YPC in a season was just 4.4 in 2002. 6) Henry has been able to play the whole season just once in 6 seasons.
I do like Henry, but not in the first round, muchless the top 5. I'd take LT, LJ, SJax, SA, Gore, Westy, Addai, Rudi, Parker, Bush, McGahee, Maroney, Manning, Steve Smith, and maybe Carson before him in a 6 pts/passing TD league. He may have a huge year, but is a pretty big risk for your #1 pick, IMO.
With me, he stays out of the top 7 because of reception totals. He may rush like a top 8 back but he won't accumulate the reception numbers that those top 7 backs do, IMO. I've got him in the 8-10 range behind...