Azrael wrote:I'm really not looking to draft Westbrook where he's going (late 1st) unless it's a PPR league. With the way the Eagles operate, he probably had his career year last year. It's hard to match 11 scores as a RB unless you are getting cracks at the goalline. 11 TDs matches career high. Rushing yards were by far a career high. Career high in receptions and almost match career high in receiving yards. He was used to just about his maximum last year. Now he jumps all the way up to the 1st round.
Ok, I've been hearing more and more lately of this career year stuff. Do people actually look at PPG anymore? Westbrook has been the starter for 3 years in Philly. Here's a breakdown of those years:
- PPG: 21.4 in PPR, 15.8 non-PPR
- missed 3 games, 1 due to injury, 2 because Reid held starters out final 2 games
- no key injuries to the offense
- PPG: 18.8 in PPR, 13.8 non-PPR
- missed 4 games due to being placed on IR
- McNabb, TO, 3 of 5 starters on the o-line all out for a good portion of the season
- PPG: 22.3 in PPR, 17.2 non-PPR
- missed 1 game due to injury
- McNabb out 6 games
Maybe the argument can be made in non-PPR leagues, but how can people claim Westbrook had a career year in terms of his productiveness? His points per game were much closer to his first year as the featured RB, and the year in between, the offense was decimated with injuries prior to Westbrook's season ending, and anyone watching those games can tell you the blocking was pathetic. If anything, its more reasonable to expect no less than 20-21 ppg from Westbrook in a PPR, 15-16 in a non-PPR.
As for the TDs, he reached the 11 TDs in a year mark before, while splitting time 3 ways with Duce Staley and Correll Buckhalter. So, I'd say he's shown his TD potential as the featured guy can go much higher. Also, his TD per game average was very close (%4 off) in the 2004 campaign from last year's and that RBBC year's. I wouldnt argue TDs are fluky, so who knows, he might only get 4-6 this year, but its not hard looking at his past to expect about 10 TDs if he plays almost a full season (14-15 games).
Injury concerns are quite valid, but he's produced very close to last year's numbers before, and they're more the norm off of the current history available on him than his 2005 numbers are.