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Top 2 WR From Same Team

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Top 2 WR From Same Team

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Aug 28, 2007 11:07 am

How bad of a strategy is it to have your top 2 or 2 of your top 3 WR be from the same team? Examples would be having both Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.

I realize that it's certainly not preferable with the nature of Bye weeks as well as running into a tough matchup and getting no production out of two starters instead of one, but just how poor of an idea is it to have such a tandem? Is it unforgivable? Must you immediately seek to trade one? Is it manageable if you've managed to draft more WR than you generally would have otherwise??

Thanks.
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Re: Top 2 WR From Same Team

Postby WickedSmaat » Tue Aug 28, 2007 11:12 am

I'd be on the end that wouldn't prefer it. You get your end of the season stats there, but the inconsistent consistency that it brings is terrible. Rarely if ever do they both score TDs in the same game or even blow up together which is what you're looking for in the dynamic. You're basically giving yourself an average team on a week to week basis. I would say the same about WRs and TEs on the same team.
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Re: Top 2 WR From Same Team

Postby FatFoot » Tue Aug 28, 2007 11:33 am

It's not a real problem, IMO. Let's say you have Fitz and DDriver instead. Is that somehow a REAL guarantee of better performance? Both players can have great FF days on terrible days for their respective football teams, or vice versa (as is actually somewhat common for receivers). Different teams, but similar value players, is not going to guarantee better performance.

The problem with drafting a lot of people from one team, as you indicate, is bye weeks. I guess the other problem, with WRs, is that you could end up in a situation with a compromised QB, where all WRs take a hit. But I mean, it's a guessing game. If it meant that I was thinking about Fitz in 3 and Boldin in 4... I might avoid it just for the bye concern, since there's still similar talent on the board, but if Boldin fell to the 5th, I'd probably have snapped him up.

I think people make too much out of having RB and QB from the same team. 2 WRs from the same team is only slightly more problematic. In that you don't want to draft "problems" into your season, it's legitimate to avoid that situation. But I wouldn't pass on value.
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Re: Top 2 WR From Same Team

Postby WickedSmaat » Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:00 pm

FatFoot wrote:It's not a real problem, IMO. Let's say you have Fitz and DDriver instead. Is that somehow a REAL guarantee of better performance? Both players can have great FF days on terrible days for their respective football teams, or vice versa (as is actually somewhat common for receivers). Different teams, but similar value players, is not going to guarantee better performance.


I'm not going to fully crunch any numbers, but I would assume that the probability that 2 top WRs on different teams have a better chance of going big on the same day than any of the same team WR tandems. If you can afford being just "average" with your WR corps than by all means go for it, assuming you think you'll get a chunk of the scoring every week. But rarely ever do players on the same team both score in the same week. It's generally feast or famine for either guy.

Wayne/Harrison - 3 times last year they scored in the same game
Boldin/Fitz - 1 time last year
CJ/TJ - 0, zilch, nada
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Re: Top 2 WR From Same Team

Postby bobbing_headz » Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:10 pm

There is one major problem with 2 WRs on the same team, that it's very hard for both of them to have great games. This may not be so bad because on the flip side, usually one will have a good game so you'll be consistant (WickedSmaat went over all this). Couple that with the fact that the chances of you snagging CJ/Housh, Fitz/Boldin or Harrison/Wayne (the only worthy tandems) are slim and would probably mean you had a crappy draft (no RBs) and I wouldn't recommend this strategy.
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Re: Top 2 WR From Same Team

Postby FatFoot » Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:23 pm

Yeah, but it's not apples to apples, again. If you are getting Roy and CJ2, you're getting Roy in your 3rd or 4th round, and CJ in your 6th to 8th round. So you're not looking at the value of the second guy as "stud." You're looking at him as your #2 or #3 or even bench WR.

I guess I'd concede that Fitz and Boldin are going to go 3rd and 4th round (or something like that) in most leagues, so you could have a problem... and Wayne and Harrison both go early. But few would complain about their predicament, scoring Wayne and Harrison, as you ARE almost guaranteed big production there. And with Fitz and Boldin, you don't solve the problem by only taking one of the two.

If Fitz is going big one week, and Boldin the next, and you have one of the two, you get a good week from Fitz or Boldin one week, and a meh week the other. If you have both of them you get a good week from Fitz or Boldin one week, and a meh week the other. You don't have a lock for better performance by getting Fitz and Driver (I'm using Driver because he went right around the same time as Boldin in our draft.)

If you want an apples to apples comparison, compare Fitz/Boldin's combined numbers weekly numbers (skip injured weeks, as they're not relevant) to your #1 and #2 WR from last year, weekly. Did you outscore (FF) Fitz and Boldin? You probably didn't outscore Wayne and Harrison. You wouldn't be comparing to Roy and CJ2.

If you make it sound like "I'm passing on CJ to get Boldin, so that I can have both Fitz and Boldin" then of course it sounds foolish. But that's not really what we're talking about.
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Re: Top 2 WR From Same Team

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Aug 28, 2007 2:06 pm

I wanted to keep this open, but since there's some conflicting opinions, I will offer my own scenario. I have both Fitz and Boldin (Rounds 4 and 5) of a 10-team redraft. I was strongly opposed to grabbing Boldin, but there was nobody on the board nearly as talented, and I had grabbed 3 RB in the first 3 Rounds (Addai, Maroney, Benson). To help with the Bye weeks I drafted extra WR than I had originally intended (Plaxico Burress, Vincent Jackson, Brandon Jones, D.J. Hackett). My question is, should I be pushing hard to move Boldin, not necessarily selling low, but looking for other options; or did I make the right move in accomodating for the Bye week?

Again, I'm really not trying to make this something that belongs in the Draft, Trade Forum, as I'm more concerned with the strategy of carrying the two Wideouts (or the Indy or Cinci combos for that matter) and what negative implications it may have.

Thanks again.
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Re: Top 2 WR From Same Team

Postby knapplc » Tue Aug 28, 2007 2:19 pm

WickedSmaat wrote:I'm not going to fully crunch any numbers, but I would assume that the probability that 2 top WRs on different teams have a better chance of going big on the same day than any of the same team WR tandems. If you can afford being just "average" with your WR corps than by all means go for it, assuming you think you'll get a chunk of the scoring every week. But rarely ever do players on the same team both score in the same week. It's generally feast or famine for either guy.

Wayne/Harrison - 3 times last year they scored in the same game
Boldin/Fitz - 1 time last year
CJ/TJ - 0, zilch, nada

This is a small sample size but IMO it's pretty indicative of what you'll find if you go through the numbers for every team last year. Good post, Wicked. ;-D
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Re: Top 2 WR From Same Team

Postby phunkadelic » Tue Aug 28, 2007 2:45 pm

You don't know what's going to happen regardless of who you have in there. But let's just assume when you have Chad and TJ on the same fantasy team that you somehow know one is going to give you 12 pts each week and the other is going to give you 3 pts (actual number of points don't matter, it's just the calculations we care about here.) That means you know you're getting 15 pts every week from your top two wide outs.

Now, instead you have Roy Williams and not TJ. You still know that 50% for the time, each of Roy and CJ will get you 11 pts, and the other 8 weeks you'll be getting 3 pts. Now, with no clue when those number will hit in comparison to the other WR, you are going to get 6 pts in 25% of the weeks, 15 pts 50% of the weeks, and 24 pts 25% of the weeks.

Which of those scenarios would you prefer? I'd prefer the consistency and knowing I'm not going to be spending 4 weeks of the year getting little to no production out of my 2nd and 3rd round picks.
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Re: Top 2 WR From Same Team

Postby ivesaidway2much » Tue Aug 28, 2007 2:53 pm

WickedSmaat wrote:I'm not going to fully crunch any numbers, but I would assume that the probability that 2 top WRs on different teams have a better chance of going big on the same day than any of the same team WR tandems. If you can afford being just "average" with your WR corps than by all means go for it, assuming you think you'll get a chunk of the scoring every week. But rarely ever do players on the same team both score in the same week. It's generally feast or famine for either guy.

Wayne/Harrison - 3 times last year they scored in the same game
Boldin/Fitz - 1 time last year
CJ/TJ - 0, zilch, nada

It's pretty much feast or famine for all WR combos. Here are the rest of the possible combos based on your sample:

wayne/boldin 2
wayne/fitz 1
wayne/johnson 3
wayne/housh 2

harrison/boldin 1
harrison/fitz 4
harrison/johnson 0
harrison/housh 3

boldin/wayne 2
boldin/harrison 1
boldin/johnson 0
boldin/housh 2

fitz/wayne 1
fitz/harrsion 4
fitz/johnson 0
fitz/housh 3

johsnon/wayne 1
johnson/harrison 0
johnson/boldin 0
johnson/fitz 0

housh/wayne 2
housh/harrison 3
housh/boldin 2
housh/fitz 3
Last edited by ivesaidway2much on Tue Aug 28, 2007 3:03 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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