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Re: Top 2 WR From Same Team

Postby knapplc » Tue Aug 28, 2007 2:57 pm

phunkadelic wrote:You don't know what's going to happen regardless of who you have in there. But let's just assume when you have Chad and TJ on the same fantasy team that you somehow know one is going to give you 12 pts each week and the other is going to give you 3 pts (actual number of points don't matter, it's just the calculations we care about here.) That means you know you're getting 15 pts every week from your top two wide outs.

Now, instead you have Roy Williams and not TJ. You still know that 50% for the time, each of Roy and CJ will get you 11 pts, and the other 8 weeks you'll be getting 3 pts. Now, with no clue when those number will hit in comparison to the other WR, you are going to get 6 pts in 25% of the weeks, 15 pts 50% of the weeks, and 24 pts 25% of the weeks.

Which of those scenarios would you prefer? I'd prefer the consistency and knowing I'm not going to be spending 4 weeks of the year getting little to no production out of my 2nd and 3rd round picks.



I think your example works better with this scenario than in real-world practice for this reason – if you have two WR from the same team, every week that team is shut down your entire WR corps is shut down. But if you have guys from two different teams you have a better chance of some production, because it is less likely that both of your top WRs are going to face shut-down defenses in the same week. It’s actually more consistent to spread your WRs out rather than have them on the same team.
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Re: Top 2 WR From Same Team

Postby ivesaidway2much » Tue Aug 28, 2007 3:06 pm

knapplc wrote:
phunkadelic wrote:You don't know what's going to happen regardless of who you have in there. But let's just assume when you have Chad and TJ on the same fantasy team that you somehow know one is going to give you 12 pts each week and the other is going to give you 3 pts (actual number of points don't matter, it's just the calculations we care about here.) That means you know you're getting 15 pts every week from your top two wide outs.

Now, instead you have Roy Williams and not TJ. You still know that 50% for the time, each of Roy and CJ will get you 11 pts, and the other 8 weeks you'll be getting 3 pts. Now, with no clue when those number will hit in comparison to the other WR, you are going to get 6 pts in 25% of the weeks, 15 pts 50% of the weeks, and 24 pts 25% of the weeks.

Which of those scenarios would you prefer? I'd prefer the consistency and knowing I'm not going to be spending 4 weeks of the year getting little to no production out of my 2nd and 3rd round picks.



I think your example works better with this scenario than in real-world practice for this reason – if you have two WR from the same team, every week that team is shut down your entire WR corps is shut down. But if you have guys from two different teams you have a better chance of some production, because it is less likely that both of your top WRs are going to face shut-down defenses in the same week. It’s actually more consistent to spread your WRs out rather than have them on the same team.
But how many shutdown defenses are there anyway? Especially with regards to passing, after the stricter pass interference rules were added a couple of years back.
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Re: Top 2 WR From Same Team

Postby knapplc » Tue Aug 28, 2007 3:38 pm

ivesaidway2much wrote:But how many shutdown defenses are there anyway? Especially with regards to passing, after the stricter pass interference rules were added a couple of years back.
You can answer your own question by going back since the inception of that rule and finding out how many times a team has had multiple WRs go for 80+ yards and at least 1 TD each. Offhand I'd say that hasn't happened all that often.
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Re: Top 2 WR From Same Team

Postby WickedSmaat » Tue Aug 28, 2007 3:56 pm

ivesaidway2much wrote:
WickedSmaat wrote:I'm not going to fully crunch any numbers, but I would assume that the probability that 2 top WRs on different teams have a better chance of going big on the same day than any of the same team WR tandems. If you can afford being just "average" with your WR corps than by all means go for it, assuming you think you'll get a chunk of the scoring every week. But rarely ever do players on the same team both score in the same week. It's generally feast or famine for either guy.

Wayne/Harrison - 3 times last year they scored in the same game
Boldin/Fitz - 1 time last year
CJ/TJ - 0, zilch, nada

It's pretty much feast or famine for all WR combos. Here are the rest of the possible combos based on your sample:

wayne/boldin 2
wayne/fitz 1
wayne/johnson 3
wayne/housh 2

harrison/boldin 1
harrison/fitz 4
harrison/johnson 0
harrison/housh 3

boldin/wayne 2
boldin/harrison 1
boldin/johnson 0
boldin/housh 2

fitz/wayne 1
fitz/harrsion 4
fitz/johnson 0
fitz/housh 3

johsnon/wayne 1
johnson/harrison 0
johnson/boldin 0
johnson/fitz 0

housh/wayne 2
housh/harrison 3
housh/boldin 2
housh/fitz 3


This is still a small sample size, but if you really want to, go through all the top 2 WR combos in the league and find out how many times that they scored the same time in a week. You're odds of going big with 2 seperate players on a team are going to be more likely than 2 teammates, regardless of what type of offense they run. The thing is we should be looking more into the yardage they put up along side of it too and how many fantasy points they accrued over those games together. When I meant feast or famine I meant it as teammates, because in general, one guy is doing that damage that game due to a matchup. By nature the WR spot is that way, but what you're doing with WRs on the same team is only making yourself average and if you need that breakout game against an LT/SJax/LJ combo somewhere along the lines.

If someone has the time to crunch the numbers, by all means do it. I'm more intrigued of what a bigger sample will give. It just seems to me that the odds would be in favor of not having the same team WR tandem.
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Re: Top 2 WR From Same Team

Postby Timbathia » Tue Aug 28, 2007 8:05 pm

bobbing_headz wrote:There is one major problem with 2 WRs on the same team, that it's very hard for both of them to have great games. This may not be so bad because on the flip side, usually one will have a good game so you'll be consistant (WickedSmaat went over all this). Couple that with the fact that the chances of you snagging CJ/Housh, Fitz/Boldin or Harrison/Wayne (the only worthy tandems) are slim and would probably mean you had a crappy draft (no RBs) and I wouldn't recommend this strategy.


So in a 12-team, 2-player keeper draft that just finished here in the cafe (with people that seem to know what they are doing) I picked from the 3 spot and took

Gore
Harrison
Wayne
Caddy
Norwood

Note: I had options at Deuce and MB11 in the 4th and Green and Jamal in the 5th rounds.

I dont think that you are giving up too much at RB to take Marvin and Reggie in the 2nd/3rd turn as the only RBs that went after I took Marvin in the 2nd and before my 4th round pick were Portis, Jacobs, Lynch and ADP. Honestly at the end of the second round and the start of the third round there is not a lot of great value at RB. IMO there isnt a big deal of difference between the guys available there and the guys available in the 4th round, because they all have so many questions on them.

Barring injuries, coupling the extremely consistent production you would expect from the two Indy receivers with a top 3 back seems to me to be a pretty good strategy. From the top 3 spots you have almost no chance at coupling two top RBs, so why not wait until the 4th and 5th and select two guys there that should give reasonable production?
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Re: Top 2 WR From Same Team

Postby Red5 » Tue Aug 28, 2007 8:20 pm

I struggled with this same question when drafting from the one spot in my 10 teamer. After LT, I took Harrison/Wayne at the turn. Now, I was able to grab T Jones and Jacobs at the next turn so I feel I'm still in good shape with my RBs. Because of the consistency of the production that Harrison and Wayne will give me, I feel good about how this strategy will play out.

However, I think this strategy was particularly valid because my league starts 3 WR. That gives a bit of extra flexibility. If one was really worried about the week that the Colts face the Ravens (which I'm still not) at least you have one WR not facing them who could have a big week to make up for the combos' muted production.

Do you think 2 WR vs 3 makes a difference in whether you would choose to use this strategy?

League 1: 12 teams, yardage heavy scoring, PPR for WR/TE only
QB: Kitna, Romo
RB: J Addai, F Taylor, D Williams, D Foster, M Pittman
WR: TO, J Walker, K Curtis, D Henderson, B Jones, Ja Jones
TE: Gates, Scaife
K: Brown
D: Philly, GB

League 2: 10 teams, TD heavy scoring
QB: Cutler, Delhomme
RB: LT, T Jones, B Jacobs, A Peterson (MIN), L Betts, A Peterson (CHI)
WR: Harrison, Wayne, Galloway, Muhammad, M Jones
TE: Heap
K: Kasay
D: Baltimore
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Re: Top 2 WR From Same Team

Postby FatFoot » Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:00 pm

Things that I think have to be remembered in this scenario:

1). Most teams do not have a 1a and 1b receiver situation.
therefore
2). Most combinations of receivers from one team are going to be 1 and 2.
thus
3). 2 WR from the same team is rarely a matter of risking picks, but rather choosing players based on expected value.

Without a question, Harrison and Wayne are an exception. I think Fitz/Boldin is also an exception. I don't think Housh is a 1b. I think he had a career year based on Chad having a worthless first half.

Unless you're playing Harrison/Wayne, or Fitz/Boldin, you are not going to be putting in your FF team's #1 and #2 guys from the same NFL team. So the sample size SHOULD be small, I guess.

Because you can't predict whether Fitz or Boldin is going to be "the man" on a given Sunday, I think it's a similar risk playing ONE of the two, along with someone else, as it is to playing both of them. So you may want to avoid ALL of them, or you may want some of them... but the only real reason to worry about playing Harrison and Wayne, for example, is that Peyton could get hurt, theoretically, and that could hose your season.

I wouldn't be afraid of playing Boldin and Fitz, but for the sake of the bye, I might try to move one of them, if I found the right deal.
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Re: Top 2 WR From Same Team

Postby Red5 » Fri Sep 07, 2007 7:10 pm

So far, not sad having Harrison and Wayne! Of course, it's only one game ...
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Re: Top 2 WR From Same Team

Postby Flyn high again » Fri Sep 07, 2007 7:34 pm

I think this question depends on three factors. 1. Which team. 2. Which QB. 3. Which receivers. A winning team with a great QB who throws a lot may have enough production to keep each receiver happy [example-Harrison/Wayne with Manning or Johnson/Housh with Palmer]. You may be able to add Moss/Stallworth with Brady to the list after this year but it's too early to tell how that experiment is going to work out. On the other hand, a poor team won't score enough and a poor QB won't throw for enough yards or touchdowns to keep both receivers points totals up. Of course, poor receivers won't get open or make enough plays to help your scores. So basically, you need a combo of a winning team, a great QB and two great receivers to pay off in enough points to make taking both receivers worth while.
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Re: Top 2 WR From Same Team

Postby maddog60 » Sat Sep 08, 2007 1:22 am

Its putting too many eggs in one basket. When the #2 WR has a great game, a lot of times it has to do with the #1 WR drawing lots of coverage, or coverage of a Champ Bailey or Chris McAlister, giving the QB all the reason in the world to throw often to the #2. For the simple reason that with 2 WRs from 2 different teams you have a chance of getting the top scoring WR on each of those teams, the upside is higher.
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