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Round By Round Draft Strategy

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Round By Round Draft Strategy

Postby bobbing_headz » Thu Aug 30, 2007 2:13 am

I saw something like this on another site so I thought I'd throw out my own opinions (which I love doing :-D).

Note: These are my opinions. I'm not an omnipotent fantasy god so don't take this as holy scripture. I'm only advising.

Round 1
First round is one which I believe takes very little strategy. Very hard to win the league in the first (except maybe with LT) but very easy to throw it away. First 2 picks are no brainers, LT and SJax. At 3 I'm taking LJ now that he's signed and Gore at 4. After that it really depends on league settings. I like Westy a lot especially in PPRs and Parker too. I'd take both in the top 7. Looking towards the back end you still gotta go RB. I'd target guys slightly risky but with lots of upside like Maroney or Henry. It's too early to take anybody other than a RB in the first. RBs are gonna go probably 14 of the the top 16 picks and I'd say 18-20 by the end of round 2 so taking Manning or a WR is basically out of the question unless you want to risk a lower 1st back and a mediocre 2nd back.

Underated Parker: I think the guy has the potential to be top 5-7. With an improved pass game he'll get more openings to run and he should up his catch total.
Overrated Bush: I'm not buying the hype here. Won't repeat the catches and does not get enough rushing yards/TDs to warrant a top 12 pick in a non-PPR.

Round 2
Things open up a bit here with more than just RBs going but still not much room to maneuver. Picking at 2.01-04 I think you should go RB. By 3.10 there won't be much left in terms of a good 2nd RB. Plus I'm not liking much of the WRs available. You'll easily be able to grab a Fitz, Walker or Housh later. I'm targeting Jones-Drew and Ronnie Brown. Both are underrated and should both improve on their numbers last year. MJD especially in PPR leagues, he's gonna be very close to value to Westy by the end of the season. By the late 2nd I'd actually consider grabbing a WR (if MJD and Brown are gone) since you'll be taking one in the 2nd or 3rd anyways. Smith and CJ are both tied for my top pick with TO and Wayne following. If all 4 are gone then no other WRs are 2nd round worthy. If Manning is there then I'd only take him at 2.10 or later. I'd definitely consider Portis at the back end here if you don't want to take a WR.

Underrated MJD: People are not realizing how many touches he'll get. Taylor is there but MJD is the goal line back and will put up tons of receptions. Won't repeat TDs but should get at least 10.
Overrated McGahee: I see him going in the mid to late 2nd which is too early. He wasn't great in Buffalo and Baltimore never has and won't have a great offense this year. That and a lack of upside turn me off (worse version of Rudi anybody?).

Round 3
If you got LT then I'd seriously consider grabbing two of SS, CJ, Wayne, Harrison or TO. LT is good enough that you don't even need a good 2nd RB. Holt has dropped off my rankings significantly cause of the knee. Let someone else draft him here. Other than Manning no QB is 3rd worthy, not even Palmer. Portis is the best value here, especially as a 2nd RB. If Healthy he has top 10 potential. I also like Edge but he's slipped a bit because of Shipp and possible loss of TDs. Looking for WRs in the mid 3rd I'd assume that the top 6 are gone (including Holt). RW is my top pick as a top WR. Tons of looks and CJ give him top 5 upside. I also like Walker who'll definitely be there. By the end of the 3rd you'll probably have gone RB/RB so grab one of RW, Walker or Housh. If you're looking for RBs here then Benson, TJones and even Caddy are my picks. I'd pass on Jacobs who is gonna play for a pretty bad offense and is overrated at this point. Feel free to grab Gates at 3.11-12 if he's there.

Underrated Portis: Has top 10 potential. I'd take the risk of injury any day for this kind of upside.
Overrated Palmer: You can easily grab Brady, Bulger or Brees later. Don't waste a pick on Palmer and the Bengals offense who should under-perform this year.

Round 4
Things really start shaking up here. Grab Gates if he's still there any pick in the 4th, he's that good. If you went RB-RB-WR I'd look to take a really good 2nd WR. Look for Walker, Housh or Evans who I'm personally very high on. If you went RB-WR-RB then I'd grab a RB to get some depth. Caddy is my pick here who should revert back to his 05 numbers. If he's not there I'd seriously consider Peterson as my 3rd RB (I know he's being hyped up here a lot :-) ). The WR depth is pretty deep here and you'll probably be going WR through the mid-late round. Evans, Driver and Andre are my picks here. By the end of the 4th if you really need a RB then I'd grab Green or DeAngelo in PPR. Deuce is just too overrated for me and won't get enough yards to warrant a pick. By the end of the 4th I might consider a QB. If more than one of Bulger, Brady, Palmer or Brees are on the board then I'd hold off till the early 5th but if not then I'd grab one here.

Underrated Evans: Had a great season last year and with Losman only improving he should at least repeat his totals.
Overrated Lynch: Way Way Ridiculously over hyped. Do not take him! Buffalo has a terrible O-Line and as a rookie it's near impossible to be up to full speed with the game in the first few weeks.

Round 5
Any of the QBs I mentioned earlier available then definitely grab one. Now is the best time to take a 3rd RB if you haven't already. If Peterson is here take him. Otherwise Green, DeAngelo and Lamont are all my picks. A bit high for Jordan but I'm really liking him this year, especially in PPRs. At WR Burress is the only guy I like here. If he's not there don't bother until next round where's there's lots of talent. I don't agree with taking Barber here, he's getting overhyped based on his ridiculous TD totals last year. Norwood is another option who I'm not sold on. I think Dunn will eventually cave but not for at least several weeks. I'd only take him with a late 5th pick. I'd hold off on taking a QB late assuming the top 5 are gone. In my ideal draft I'd have 3 RBs and 2 WRs by this point in the draft.

Underrated Jordan: Quite high for Jordan but last year Oakland's offense was beyond horrific. If there's any improvement at all this year Jordan will be significantly better, especially if CPep plays half-decently.
Overrated Barber: Jones is the main guy and a change of coaching staff does not bode well for him. He was partially a byproduct of Parcells and I highly doubt he breaks 10 TDs.

Round 6
At this point most of the RB talent has disappeared an I'm focusing on high upside WRs and/or TEs. There really isn't any great RBs left to warrant taking here unless Jordan is available. I especially don't like Jamal Lewis is 50/50 on losing carries to a RBBC in Cleveland. At WR there is a ton of young talent and I'm looking to take someone with lots of upside. My top two picks are Edwards and if he's gone then Mark Clayton. Both young with great potential. Julius Jones isn't a bad pick at RB, I think he'll outperform Barber so feel free to grab him as a 3rd RB or even 4th RB. By the end of the round if you are set on taking a TE then take Shockey or Heap. I'd also consider McNabb if he's there but no other QB is worth taking here.

Underrated Edwards: He's still being taken in this round but I think he has top 12-15 potential if the Brown's QBs finally click. Will get tons of catches anyways.
Overrated Jamal Lewis: I despise Lewis. I think he isn't a great RB, is getting older and is not guaranteed to hold the starting job. Could very well turn in a RBBC in Cleveland.

Round 7
By the end of this round I'd like to have at least 3 WRs and 3 RBs. So grab a RB or WR if you need a 3rd. Again I like JJones as a RB or Lamont if he's still here. Fred Taylor and Bell are not bad picks here as well (wait to see if KJ is coming back). At WR take Clayton if he's still here. Otherwise I'd go with Branch, Ward or Chambers, all excellent 3rd options. If McNabb is still here take him but I'd hold off on any other QBs, especially Kitna. You can easily grab quality QB options later. If you feel set at RB and WR then by all means grab a TE. Behind Shockey and Heap Cooley is my sleeper pick. I wouldn't hesitate to take him this early. I wouldn't hesitate either to grab a 4th RB. After this round just about all the starting RBs are gone and there is a big drop-off in talent. Don't be afraid to have a 4th RB here. I'm not taking a D or K this early, not even Chicago or Baltimore.

Underrated Cooley: I'm gonna say now that he's gonna be top 5 TE hands-down with top 3 potential. Campbell loves him and he was a stud the second half of last year.
Overrated: Betts: Yes he's being taken this high and no he's not worth it. Why waste a pick on a backup when you can grab a decent starter, especially when Portis is looking like he is getting better.

Round 8
Not much happening here. Most RBs are gone but if you're still searching for your 4th try Foster or CTaylor, both underrated and quality RB4s. At WR there's still tons of talent. The guy I'm targeting here is Santonio Holmes if he's there. I think the new offense immediately increases his value. I doubt Cotchery is available but I'd grab him here too. At QB the only two I'm taking here are Kitna or Young with emphasis on Young. Even if his passing stats stink his rushing yards make him an automatic top 10 QB. Otherwise hold off on a QB. If you haven't gotten a TE by the end of the 8th then the dropoff is big enough to wait until the last few rounds of the draft. I'd take Baltimore or Chicago here but no other D or Kicker yet.

Underrated Foster: If he falls here then great. He's a starter who for some reason is loved in Carolina. It's all good cause he should get at least 60% of the carries.
Overrated Stallworth: Two things against this guy, a) NE has too many WRs and b) Tom Brady is the QB. Stallworth was never that great anyways and NE's offense isn't gonna help him out.

Round 9
QBs are flying off the board now. If I don't have a QB then I'm taking Big Ben hands down. I love this guy this year and a new HC probably doubles his value at the minimum. Almost no RBs left. If you're desperate for a 4th RB then take KJ and pray he doesn't go on the PUP. Even if he does he's still a potential RB2 when he comes back in week 7. I'd also consider White or BJackson if you're in need. Wasting picks on backup RBs here like Turner is a no-no. Henderson is my sleeper WR here. Take him confidently as a solid 4th.

Underrated Big Ben: He should be taken around here anyways but I think he will be top 10 this year. Gone are the old ways of pounding the rock and in are the days of 4 WR sets. Ben is a gunslinger and should amass tons of yards.
Overrated All Backup RBs: I'd say Turner but he's injured so it might downgrade his value. No point wasting a pick here on a backup when there is better value at other positions.

Round 10
QBs should still be flying here. You should have 1 already cause there is a big drop-off soon. Basically backup RBs left only, you don't need one now. I'm a Porter fan at WR. I think he still has something left in him so he's a great 5th WR. If you are feeling set at RB and WR then don't hesitate to take a 2nd QB. Smith and Delhomme are my two picks for a great backup QB.

Underrated Smith: Has the tools to be a top 12 QB. If Davis and Jackson click then he could do great things
Overrated All Ds: After Chicago and Baltimore I have no confidence in any Ds. Why waste a pick here when you can easily get a good one later.

Round 11-12
If you're looking for a solid 5th RB then grab a good backup like MBell, Washington or Peterson (chicago). However, you can still get decent backup RBs later in the draft. Some QBs may still be here like Smith or Delhomme. Losman is a nice pick if the other 2 are gone and you need a 2nd QB. I hate all WRs here, the Bennetts and Furreys don't appeal to me, and will wait till much later to grab a sleeper. Grab a TE now if you don't have one. HMiller, Smith, Watson or McMichael, one of which should be available.

Underrated Losman: Continuing my trend of underrated QBs, Losman is a QB that showed promise last year and should develop even more this year. Should rack up lots of yards.
Overrated Brandon Jones: I'm not sure if he's still going this high but don't waste your pick on a guy that doesn't look like he'll crack the starting lineup anymore. Heck, don't draft any Titans WR.

Round 13-End
It's super sleeper time! I'm looking to grab my sleepers at this point at RB and WR. You should have 2 QBs by now but if you don't, grab Losman ASAP if he's available. My RBs that I'm targeting are mostly rookies, Hunt, Leonard, Dorsey and possibly Cecil Sapp (you never know in Denver). I like Hunt especially to get goal line touches if Westy goes down. At WR I have a bunch of guys. Jacoby Jones (most of you probably know about him) should be a nice play after the first few games when he wins the starting job. I'm also looking at James Jones on GBay who could be one of the top WR3s in the league along with Crayton who I'm also targeting. It wouldn't hurt grabbing whoever the Bucs 2nd WR is, probably Stovall. I'm liking Demetrius Williams on the Ravens possibly taking over Mason's spot and you might as well grab a Jags WR, Wilford or Northcutt if they're available. You'll be drafting a D and Kicker here, take a D first, I'd go with Denver, Jacksonville or Minnesota in that order. At Kicker I have two picks. If you're feeling risky take Gostkowski or if you're feeling safe take Stover. Either way it doesn't matter much. If you're looking for a 2nd TE then I'd go for Scaife or Zach Miller. Both deep sleepers that I'd take in the final rounds. If you really need that 3rd QB then take a flyer on a high upside guy like Schaub.

Underrated Pretty much everybody I mentioned
Overrated Nobody is overrated at this point.

Whew :-°

Hope that can help you and gl at your draft ;-D
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Re: Round By Round Draft Strategy

Postby Flutie4Prez » Thu Aug 30, 2007 12:45 pm

WOW. Excellent post! ;-D
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Re: Round By Round Draft Strategy

Postby MotorCityKitties » Thu Aug 30, 2007 6:58 pm

Yeah this is a great post. I like your strategy and in general I agree with most of your underrated/overrated picks.

I'd like to discuss your opinions of MJD. In a recent draft I took FWP first round and MJD in round 2. I've read that Greg Jones may take some goal line carries from MJD. Can anyone confirm this and does this worry anyone. An RBBC with MJD and Fragile Fred I can handle, but throwing another back in there may be cause for concern for us MJD owners.
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Re: Round By Round Draft Strategy

Postby MotorCityKitties » Fri Aug 31, 2007 4:51 pm

Here's an encouraging opinion on MJD from CBS:

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB JAC
News: Despite what Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew told CBSSports.com earlier this offseason that he would lose goal-line carries to Greg Jones, who is back after missing 2006 with a knee injury, it appears Jones-Drew might still be getting those carries. According to a reporter who covers the Jaguars, there is speculation Jones-Drew is still the best option near the end zone because of his size (5-foot-7. 208 pounds) and running style. Jones-Drew had 13 rushing touchdowns as a rookie last year.
Analysis: While this may be true, Jones-Drew is still expected to lose a few carries in short-yardage situations to Jones, who is a bruising runner at 6-foot-1, 255 pounds. Jones-Drew's touchdown total will probably slip in 2007 (don't forget, Fred Taylor is still there as well), but he's still worth drafting as a No. 2 Fantasy RB this year
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Re: Round By Round Draft Strategy

Postby shawngee03 » Tue Sep 04, 2007 4:27 pm

i drafted exactly like you said, and it turned out wonderfully in all 3 leagues. great post for content and to waste some time at the office ;-D
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Re: Round By Round Draft Strategy

Postby West Coast Bias » Tue Sep 04, 2007 5:07 pm

Such a clearer version of my "fuzzy" strategy. Great Post.
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