Football Prospectus/ KUBIAK and their QB projections - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Football Prospectus/ KUBIAK and their QB projections

Moderator: Football Moderators

Football Prospectus/ KUBIAK and their QB projections

Postby jfg » Fri Aug 31, 2007 5:42 pm

Boy, these guys have a tough time with QB's. Last year they projected big things from Jake Plummer and this year they projected top 10 fantasy stats from Leftwich. If I remember right, the guy who ranked all of the projections showed them to be extremely bad at projecting QB's. But this one takes the cake... :-t
jfg
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff

User avatar
Cafe RankerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 312
Joined: 3 Nov 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Football Prospectus/ KUBIAK and their QB projections

Postby FantasyMan13 » Fri Aug 31, 2007 6:14 pm

So just because they're different they're wrong? How would they have any idea he wouldn't be starting in July?
FantasyMan13
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyePick 3 Weekly WinnerCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 4171
(Past Year: 40)
Joined: 10 Apr 2006
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Football Prospectus/ KUBIAK and their QB projections

Postby Turnip » Sat Sep 01, 2007 3:02 pm

So just because they're different they're wrong? How would they have any idea he wouldn't be starting in July?


Exactly..not to mention that FO has already updated their projections reflecting the change at QB. Also, did you know that their projections assume the players are going to play 16 games? That's how they do their QB projections, they are projecting what they are capable of if they start. Last year, for example, they weren't trying to get inside Shanahan's head to see that he would ruin their playoff run by putting Cutler in at QB when he did. They left that up to you.
Turnip
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar
Cafe RankerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 1283
Joined: 21 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: NC State or Winston-Salem, NC

Re: Football Prospectus/ KUBIAK and their QB projections

Postby jfg » Sat Sep 01, 2007 4:12 pm

But obviously these QB's aren't capable of what they projected or else they wouldn't be benched or flat out cut. It would be different if they picked QB's and they got injured or something else out of their control but both Plummer and Leftwich couldn't cut it on the field.

Plus, like I said, somebody did a study of the top online projections and Football Outsiders did a horrible job with QB's across the board if I remember right. So it's not just missing on a couple.

I can't understand why you are giving them credit for changing the projections either. Most drafts are done and to me any site that projected top 10 stats out of a guy that ends up losing his job in the pre-season is borderline worthless. So what if they changed it...anybody could make those projections now.
jfg
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff

User avatar
Cafe RankerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 312
Joined: 3 Nov 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Football Prospectus/ KUBIAK and their QB projections

Postby Turnip » Sat Sep 01, 2007 7:50 pm

Leftwich being cut and Plummer being benched last year were both very questionable decisions.

But based on their past performance, why were you using them for QB's? They had the top score in that competition on a much more important position, RB. That's why they still make projections.

Besides, any sane person who actually used their projections would have also relied on ADP and common sense, and would have taken Leftwich in the last non-kicker round as their backup. Now, those people can probably dump him for Garrard.

Projections like these, ones that aren't just everyone else's cheatsheet in a slightly different order, are intended for people with common sense. I mean no disrespect, but you might want to avoid using them in the future.
Turnip
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar
Cafe RankerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 1283
Joined: 21 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: NC State or Winston-Salem, NC

Re: Football Prospectus/ KUBIAK and their QB projections

Postby jfg » Sat Sep 01, 2007 9:42 pm

I only used them as one source. But for the past two to three years I've found them as the most unreliable of all the sources I use and I don't think it's even close. They did do a good job on RB's last year but I think that is only because they nailed Edggerin James and had a good read on Frank Gore. We'll see how that works out this year as Shawn Alexander didn't even come close to being in their top 100 players...actually I don't think he was even top 200 but that might have been only in PPR leagues. I don't think he's going to have a great year either, but it's not going to be that bad. It just seems like they take a middle of the road approach and then go all in on a handful of players and claim greatness when they hit one of their off the wall predictions. I love Baseball Prospectus and have almost come to accept it as the only source I need for projections, but I think this will be the last year I give Football Prospectus a look.

I didn't draft Leftwich by the way. I just was shocked when I saw him so high and thought I'd bring it up. I don't get what you are saying about common sense though. When I look at an "experts" projections it should be reliable. You have to take account for injury history if they are projecting a 16 game season but you shouldn't have to take into account if the expert is just making a reach to be different
jfg
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff

User avatar
Cafe RankerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 312
Joined: 3 Nov 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Football Prospectus/ KUBIAK and their QB projections

Postby FantasyMan13 » Sun Sep 02, 2007 12:17 am

jfg wrote:I only used them as one source. But for the past two to three years I've found them as the most unreliable of all the sources I use and I don't think it's even close. They did do a good job on RB's last year but I think that is only because they nailed Edggerin James and had a good read on Frank Gore. We'll see how that works out this year as Shawn Alexander didn't even come close to being in their top 100 players...actually I don't think he was even top 200 but that might have been only in PPR leagues. I don't think he's going to have a great year either, but it's not going to be that bad. It just seems like they take a middle of the road approach and then go all in on a handful of players and claim greatness when they hit one of their off the wall predictions. I love Baseball Prospectus and have almost come to accept it as the only source I need for projections, but I think this will be the last year I give Football Prospectus a look.

I didn't draft Leftwich by the way. I just was shocked when I saw him so high and thought I'd bring it up. I don't get what you are saying about common sense though. When I look at an "experts" projections it should be reliable. You have to take account for injury history if they are projecting a 16 game season but you shouldn't have to take into account if the expert is just making a reach to be different


There's no way that's right.
FantasyMan13
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyePick 3 Weekly WinnerCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 4171
(Past Year: 40)
Joined: 10 Apr 2006
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Football Prospectus/ KUBIAK and their QB projections

Postby Turnip » Sun Sep 02, 2007 11:34 am

The thing with Shaun is, it wouldn't matter if he was ranked #13, if you relied on their projections you still would never get him. But I do understand, if everyone else is right about Shaun and they are wrong, there is no way they will be #1 for RB again.

I didn't mean to sound so grumpy yesterday, I apologize. I am a fan of the site that publishes the book itself, although I personally make my own projections for most players. I know they don't just "try to be different," they are really trying to apply advanced statistical analysis to football. They have their own version of "similarity scores" they use for fantasy, for example. The problem, of course, is that football has several more variables than baseball, which can be broken down to batter vs. pitcher. I seriously doubt such analysis will ever be up to the standard BP has set, but I respect them for trying.
Turnip
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar
Cafe RankerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 1283
Joined: 21 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: NC State or Winston-Salem, NC

Re: Football Prospectus/ KUBIAK and their QB projections

Postby jfg » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:30 pm

FantasyMan13 wrote:There's no way that's right.


I sold the book once I was finished doing my projections but I'm 99 percent sure that's where Alexander was.

Turnip wrote:I know they don't just "try to be different," they are really trying to apply advanced statistical analysis to football. They have their own version of "similarity scores" they use for fantasy, for example. The problem, of course, is that football has several more variables than baseball, which can be broken down to batter vs. pitcher. I seriously doubt such analysis will ever be up to the standard BP has set, but I respect them for trying.


I agree with that. Like I said, I am a huge fan of BP and I was really hoping that they'd be as good with football. The similarity scores just don't seem to apply as well to football. Even though there are more variables, I think it's easier to project football players because you really only need to look at trends, surrounding players and schedules to develop a good set of projections. Historical research and other alternative analysis can really benefit you in fantasy baseball but in football I think a lot of times it hinders more than helps. The proof lies with the difference between picking up a newsstand magazine or using a reputable website/book. It's easy to see the difference in baseball, but not so much with football.
jfg
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff

User avatar
Cafe RankerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 312
Joined: 3 Nov 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball


Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 18:07 hours
(and 41 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact