Boy, these guys have a tough time with QB's. Last year they projected big things from Jake Plummer and this year they projected top 10 fantasy stats from Leftwich. If I remember right, the guy who ranked all of the projections showed them to be extremely bad at projecting QB's. But this one takes the cake...
So just because they're different they're wrong? How would they have any idea he wouldn't be starting in July?
Exactly..not to mention that FO has already updated their projections reflecting the change at QB. Also, did you know that their projections assume the players are going to play 16 games? That's how they do their QB projections, they are projecting what they are capable of if they start. Last year, for example, they weren't trying to get inside Shanahan's head to see that he would ruin their playoff run by putting Cutler in at QB when he did. They left that up to you.
But obviously these QB's aren't capable of what they projected or else they wouldn't be benched or flat out cut. It would be different if they picked QB's and they got injured or something else out of their control but both Plummer and Leftwich couldn't cut it on the field.
Plus, like I said, somebody did a study of the top online projections and Football Outsiders did a horrible job with QB's across the board if I remember right. So it's not just missing on a couple.
I can't understand why you are giving them credit for changing the projections either. Most drafts are done and to me any site that projected top 10 stats out of a guy that ends up losing his job in the pre-season is borderline worthless. So what if they changed it...anybody could make those projections now.
Leftwich being cut and Plummer being benched last year were both very questionable decisions.
But based on their past performance, why were you using them for QB's? They had the top score in that competition on a much more important position, RB. That's why they still make projections.
Besides, any sane person who actually used their projections would have also relied on ADP and common sense, and would have taken Leftwich in the last non-kicker round as their backup. Now, those people can probably dump him for Garrard.
Projections like these, ones that aren't just everyone else's cheatsheet in a slightly different order, are intended for people with common sense. I mean no disrespect, but you might want to avoid using them in the future.
I only used them as one source. But for the past two to three years I've found them as the most unreliable of all the sources I use and I don't think it's even close. They did do a good job on RB's last year but I think that is only because they nailed Edggerin James and had a good read on Frank Gore. We'll see how that works out this year as Shawn Alexander didn't even come close to being in their top 100 players...actually I don't think he was even top 200 but that might have been only in PPR leagues. I don't think he's going to have a great year either, but it's not going to be that bad. It just seems like they take a middle of the road approach and then go all in on a handful of players and claim greatness when they hit one of their off the wall predictions. I love Baseball Prospectus and have almost come to accept it as the only source I need for projections, but I think this will be the last year I give Football Prospectus a look.
I didn't draft Leftwich by the way. I just was shocked when I saw him so high and thought I'd bring it up. I don't get what you are saying about common sense though. When I look at an "experts" projections it should be reliable. You have to take account for injury history if they are projecting a 16 game season but you shouldn't have to take into account if the expert is just making a reach to be different
jfg wrote:I only used them as one source. But for the past two to three years I've found them as the most unreliable of all the sources I use and I don't think it's even close. They did do a good job on RB's last year but I think that is only because they nailed Edggerin James and had a good read on Frank Gore. We'll see how that works out this year as Shawn Alexander didn't even come close to being in their top 100 players...actually I don't think he was even top 200 but that might have been only in PPR leagues. I don't think he's going to have a great year either, but it's not going to be that bad. It just seems like they take a middle of the road approach and then go all in on a handful of players and claim greatness when they hit one of their off the wall predictions. I love Baseball Prospectus and have almost come to accept it as the only source I need for projections, but I think this will be the last year I give Football Prospectus a look.
I didn't draft Leftwich by the way. I just was shocked when I saw him so high and thought I'd bring it up. I don't get what you are saying about common sense though. When I look at an "experts" projections it should be reliable. You have to take account for injury history if they are projecting a 16 game season but you shouldn't have to take into account if the expert is just making a reach to be different
The thing with Shaun is, it wouldn't matter if he was ranked #13, if you relied on their projections you still would never get him. But I do understand, if everyone else is right about Shaun and they are wrong, there is no way they will be #1 for RB again.
I didn't mean to sound so grumpy yesterday, I apologize. I am a fan of the site that publishes the book itself, although I personally make my own projections for most players. I know they don't just "try to be different," they are really trying to apply advanced statistical analysis to football. They have their own version of "similarity scores" they use for fantasy, for example. The problem, of course, is that football has several more variables than baseball, which can be broken down to batter vs. pitcher. I seriously doubt such analysis will ever be up to the standard BP has set, but I respect them for trying.
I sold the book once I was finished doing my projections but I'm 99 percent sure that's where Alexander was.
Turnip wrote:I know they don't just "try to be different," they are really trying to apply advanced statistical analysis to football. They have their own version of "similarity scores" they use for fantasy, for example. The problem, of course, is that football has several more variables than baseball, which can be broken down to batter vs. pitcher. I seriously doubt such analysis will ever be up to the standard BP has set, but I respect them for trying.
I agree with that. Like I said, I am a huge fan of BP and I was really hoping that they'd be as good with football. The similarity scores just don't seem to apply as well to football. Even though there are more variables, I think it's easier to project football players because you really only need to look at trends, surrounding players and schedules to develop a good set of projections. Historical research and other alternative analysis can really benefit you in fantasy baseball but in football I think a lot of times it hinders more than helps. The proof lies with the difference between picking up a newsstand magazine or using a reputable website/book. It's easy to see the difference in baseball, but not so much with football.
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by jfg » Fri Aug 31, 2007 5:42 pm 
