Larry Johnson - Buy low or bust?

[Felix the Cat]

I would be interested in buyig low but any savvy LJ owner will want a top 10-12 RB in return along with another player of some sort probably.

But LJ probably finishes in that 10-12 range anyways so it's probably not worth it.

Stay away imo!

In a couple of weeks people will start beginning to forget about their drafts and focus on their rosters. Then is when the LJ owners will be wanting to unload him.

[chidoy]

As I stated before, LJ is a bust this year IMHO. He's got all the talent in the world, NO DOUBT, but his O-line troubles, no QB troubles, crappy team troubles, and schedule troubles don't help him in anyway.

[Felix the Cat]

As I stated before, LJ is a bust this year IMHO. He's got all the talent in the world, NO DOUBT, but his O-line troubles, no QB troubles, crappy team troubles, and schedule troubles don't help him in anyway.

Two weeks aren't much to go on, of course, but if he continues at his current rate he's on track for a 1500 combined yard season. And that's against good defenses.

That's not really a bust in my book.

If Kansas City can manage to get into the red zone more often when they play less good defenses, LJ should see all of the attention there and his TDs should return.

[JasonSeahorn]

LJ's schedule still sucks for a few weeks, his owners (me included in a league) just have to put up with it. Plus, he still hasn't had a game where he got a ton of carries. Those days will come against lesser opponents as the Chiefs fight to win.

[LS2throwed]

what are you guys concerns for bust? obviously he's not a bust in any sense of that word, maybe a bust in that he will be the 13th best fantasy rb this yr and he was drafted 2nd, which is possible...im not an owner, i stayed clear of him, if i had the 3rd pick and s jax was gone i would of went with addai over him, or gore....

but you guys are basing expectations off of these 2 weeks, he's rusty as is LT, which is good because his legs are and will be fresh all year...


all you impatient owners, i cant wait for the final 8 weeks for LJ and S Jax to tear it up and put up 25 points a game so you can look at what you got in return and see how it doesnt compare at all

[SJNez46]

I thikn he is a buy low, but I dont expect great #s from him.

[chidoy]

Just to clarify, IMHO, he'll be a bust as a top 3 pick.. I do think he'll be a top 10-15 Rb this season however, even with all of KC's deficiencies.

[Kensat30]

If he doesn't score a TD against Minnesota this week, I think his value will be at his lowest. That will be the opportune time to buy: between week 3 and week 4. Just short enough for people to believe LJ will suck the entire year and just long enough for people to second guess the guy they drafted in the 1st.

This guy is going to be a monster in the 2nd half of the season. Absolute monster.

[WeekSixteen]

In a PPR Keeper (1 each position) league I was offered

Johnson, Larry KCC RB
Wilford, Ernest JAC WR
Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE
Kasay, John CAR PK

for

Peterson, Adrian MIN RB
Bruce, Isaac STL WR
Smith, L.J. PHI TE
Reed, Jeff PIT PK

I see Peterson following the same path as Steven Jackson at least, high ADP as a rookie only get better, ADP was a 4th rounder in my inaugeral keeper draft. I know there is a trade forum but thies seems more appropriate. I don't think LJ will blow ADP away.

[ampant]

I see Peterson following the same path as Steven Jackson at least, high ADP as a rookie only get better, ADP was a 4th rounder in my inaugeral keeper draft. I know there is a trade forum but thies seems more appropriate. I don't think LJ will blow ADP away.

Dude, I had to go back and re-read this a few times before I understood you. Most of us read ADP as "average draft position" I think. . . not as "Adrian Peterson"

Anyways, back to the subject . . . LJ fell to me at #6, and there was no way I was gonna pass on him there. I bet (conservatively estimating) that he finishes with at least 1800 total yards from scrimmage and 14 tds. He started slow last year too. He had a crappy team last year as well. His workload (and production) will increase, unless Herm Edwards has no brain.

His 1st game, he was rusty, and Edwards only gave him 10 carries, with which he got and got 43 yards. He added another 44 yards on 7 catches. . . . I'll take that kind of production, especially when he starts getting back up to 25-30 carries/game.

His second game was against CHI, who is a top ranked defense. He only got 16 carries in that game, and averaged a respectable 3.5ypc. This is against the same defense that held Tomlinson to only 1.5 ypc.

Trading LJ at this point would be a huge mistake IMHO. Herm Edwards will be fired if he keeps holding LJ back. LJ needs to get a minimum 25 carries/game if the Chiefs hope to win. They have to control the clock with LJ, because god knows that defense is lousy.