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Sell High on Joseph Addai!

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Sell High on Joseph Addai!

Postby Max Power » Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:40 pm

I just like the title because it rhymes ;-D

On a serious note... its hard to sell high on someone who had an ADP of 5. I know people have already open this thread with the idea of calling me crazy, stupid, insane, all the other good ones too. Just hear me out on this though.

So first lets look at the 4 guys that went before Addai. LT, SJAX, LJ, & Gore. Right now only Gore owners are happy with thier first pick. LT owners are probably not paniced yet. 2 tough games against tough Ds. Jax and LJ owners are probably not doing the best in most leagues. In my 2 big money leagues LT, Sjax, & LJ owners are a combined 5-7 record right now. (assuming tonight doesnt change anything) With one team (LT owner) at 2-0. So point one is that the owners of the big 3 are not sitting as pretty as they thought at this point. I know first picks dont make or break your team, and owners can overcome a first rounder that under produces. But from what I have seen so far, these owners are not lighting up the scoreboard right now.

A very strong case can be made for addai that he averages about 100 yards and a TD per game. Putting him on pace for a 1600 yard 16 TD season. so minus one bad game, 1500yrds-15TDs. Those are some top tier numbers. I bet you would be hard pressed to find an owner who would turn down a sales a pitch like that.

What I have seen from addai so far this season has been very average IMO. He is a good RB, but really just a product of the system. Addai does not seem to have the break away ability of elite backs. From watching the games, I noticed that addai got both of those TDs by luck. Harrison running out of bounds or going down right as he catches the ball inside the 5 yard line. Indy has scored most of thier TDs on the longer throws. They are an O that can score on any play from anywhere. I just dont see Addai getting the TD handed to him from inside the 5 every game.

We must also consider the fact that addai has NEVER carried the full load before. Im guessing he will max out around the 20 rushes per game. Yes I know he already has had a 23 rush game. Dungy needs to be careful with addai. If he goes down, it wont stop the O from moving the ball, but it will make the games a lot harder. Now consider that Indy has the playoffs clinched by week 13 or 14. I doubt you will get the full "Addai experience" during your playoffs run. Again what motivation does Dungy have to pound him late in the season? I can see him dropping down to about 12-15 carries at this point.

So my point is IF you can swing a deal for LJ, or Sjax, or even another great deal, you might want to consider it. (looks like I am about to get LJ, Calvin Johnson, & winslow for Addai, Crayton and scaife)

Addai's value will go up for another week or two max. Then the colts start thier tough stretch.

My point is just consider trading him...I know I am.

BTW I see him as 1300yrds 13 TD max guy right now.
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Re: Sell High on Joseph Addai!

Postby jfg » Mon Sep 17, 2007 8:34 pm

I can definitely see Steven Jackson but I think it would be pretty crazy to trade for LJ. Everyone knew that Addai was on the rise and LJ was on the fall before the preseason even began. So what that Addai is a product of the system. LJ was too for the most part. Doesn't matter if you are racking up points every week unless it's a keeper in which case I'd still want Addai.

The only thing I'd do with Addai is handcuff him to Keith if you have the room, but I don't think I'd trade him for anybody other than LT and maybe Jackson.
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Re: Sell High on Joseph Addai!

Postby BlueBandit24 » Mon Sep 17, 2007 8:42 pm

3 flaws in your argument IMO.

First, I'm not sure what his actual talent as a RB has to do with his fantasy value. Even if he is merely a product of the system, he works well within the system well and has a great grasp of it. Those factors cannot be ignored and he has a similar skillset to what made Edge so effective in this offense. He can find seams, catch the ball, and he seems to have innate ability to avoid the big hit.

As far as break-away ability, there are plenty of backs around the league that lack that. Rudi, SA, MBIII, Edge, McGahee. All of those guys are viewed as good NFL backs as well as good fantasy options. I'd take a workmanlike day and solid production over breakaway threats like Bush or Maroney.

I really don't see where Harrison being tackled inside the ten has anything to do with luck. If anything, I'd say it's encouraging that Addai is getting work inside the 10 because the Colts will be there plenty.

As far as the schedule goes, you may have somewhat of a point. But the Colts are still going to be battling for home-field advantage in all likelihood with the Pats and Chargers. I'm sure the Colts are going to make every attempt for home-field throughout because that would be huge against the Patriots.

The carrying the load argument is the only I could get on board with. It's a concern, but a guy like Gore is a perfect example that it can be overcome.

I'd probably trade Addai for S-Jax, but it's one of only a handful I would go straight up. No way I'd give him up for LJ.
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Re: Sell High on Joseph Addai!

Postby Max Power » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:08 pm

Maybe I am just trying to justify my trade in this rant...

But what? everyone thinks Addai will finish the season as the #2 RB????

I really needed a #3 WR, and a TE. I think LJ is still a major stud. Trade worked for me, I just wish I had posted here first to really gage his value.
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Re: Sell High on Joseph Addai!

Postby BlueBandit24 » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:15 pm

Max Power wrote:Maybe I am just trying to justify my trade in this rant...

But what? everyone thinks Addai will finish the season as the #2 RB????

I really needed a #3 WR, and a TE. I think LJ is still a major stud. Trade worked for me, I just wish I had posted here first to really gage his value.


I don't think Addai will finish as the 2nd RB, but Top 5 is what I would expect assuming he doesn't miss any time.

As for your trade, I really think it worked out alright for you. I'm never a fan of trading studs unless I get some serious value, but CJ2 and Winslow are big upgrades and LJ should still be good enough down the stretch to give you good production from RB. I just wouldn't do straight up for LJ as you suggested earlier in the post.
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Re: Sell High on Joseph Addai!

Postby jfg » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:26 pm

Yeah, I have no problem with the trade you made, but you seemed to be saying Addai for LJ which is a terrible idea.
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Re: Sell High on Joseph Addai!

Postby Lordrevolution » Mon Sep 17, 2007 10:02 pm

I haven't seen a single thing from LJ that says he'll be anywhere near his previous levels of production. In fact, when it came down to it, with the sixth pick (yes six) I skipped over him for Gore.
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Re: Sell High on Joseph Addai!

Postby Where's Ryan Leaf? » Mon Sep 17, 2007 10:57 pm

BlueBandit24 wrote:3 flaws in your argument IMO.

First, I'm not sure what his actual talent as a RB has to do with his fantasy value. Even if he is merely a product of the system, he works well within the system well and has a great grasp of it. Those factors cannot be ignored and he has a similar skillset to what made Edge so effective in this offense. He can find seams, catch the ball, and he seems to have innate ability to avoid the big hit.

As far as break-away ability, there are plenty of backs around the league that lack that. Rudi, SA, MBIII, Edge, McGahee. All of those guys are viewed as good NFL backs as well as good fantasy options. I'd take a workmanlike day and solid production over breakaway threats like Bush or Maroney.

I really don't see where Harrison being tackled inside the ten has anything to do with luck. If anything, I'd say it's encouraging that Addai is getting work inside the 10 because the Colts will be there plenty.

As far as the schedule goes, you may have somewhat of a point. But the Colts are still going to be battling for home-field advantage in all likelihood with the Pats and Chargers. I'm sure the Colts are going to make every attempt for home-field throughout because that would be huge against the Patriots.

The carrying the load argument is the only I could get on board with. It's a concern, but a guy like Gore is a perfect example that it can be overcome.

I'd probably trade Addai for S-Jax, but it's one of only a handful I would go straight up. No way I'd give him up for LJ.


I agree with everything you said, and would add that this being the first time Addai has carried the full load could be beneficial. This means he has less stress and wear on his joints and tendons. I also believe one could make the argument that just as much as Addai, Edge was a product of the system and he did just fine.
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Re: Sell High on Joseph Addai!

Postby sadlyajetsfan » Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:04 pm

i dont see any reason to try and trade him. he has played great first 2 games and im pretty sure an sjax or lt owner wouldnt trade straight up for him even with the slow starts. hell get his tds and the colts will be on the RZ enough so id put him down for 15
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Re: Sell High on Joseph Addai!

Postby DVauthrin » Tue Sep 18, 2007 12:03 am

joseph addai finishes the year with top 5 RB numbers. he has no threat to his carries and he is involved in both the running and passing game. He also is good in blocking situations so the colts trust him as an every down back, not to mention defenses can't key on any one aspect of the colts offense.

Addai finishes with better numbers than Larry Johnson this year.
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