I just like the title because it rhymes
On a serious note... its hard to sell high on someone who had an ADP of 5. I know people have already open this thread with the idea of calling me crazy, stupid, insane, all the other good ones too. Just hear me out on this though.
So first lets look at the 4 guys that went before Addai. LT, SJAX, LJ, & Gore. Right now only Gore owners are happy with thier first pick. LT owners are probably not paniced yet. 2 tough games against tough Ds. Jax and LJ owners are probably not doing the best in most leagues. In my 2 big money leagues LT, Sjax, & LJ owners are a combined 5-7 record right now. (assuming tonight doesnt change anything) With one team (LT owner) at 2-0. So point one is that the owners of the big 3 are not sitting as pretty as they thought at this point. I know first picks dont make or break your team, and owners can overcome a first rounder that under produces. But from what I have seen so far, these owners are not lighting up the scoreboard right now.
A very strong case can be made for addai that he averages about 100 yards and a TD per game. Putting him on pace for a 1600 yard 16 TD season. so minus one bad game, 1500yrds-15TDs. Those are some top tier numbers. I bet you would be hard pressed to find an owner who would turn down a sales a pitch like that.
What I have seen from addai so far this season has been very average IMO. He is a good RB, but really just a product of the system. Addai does not seem to have the break away ability of elite backs. From watching the games, I noticed that addai got both of those TDs by luck. Harrison running out of bounds or going down right as he catches the ball inside the 5 yard line. Indy has scored most of thier TDs on the longer throws. They are an O that can score on any play from anywhere. I just dont see Addai getting the TD handed to him from inside the 5 every game.
We must also consider the fact that addai has NEVER carried the full load before. Im guessing he will max out around the 20 rushes per game. Yes I know he already has had a 23 rush game. Dungy needs to be careful with addai. If he goes down, it wont stop the O from moving the ball, but it will make the games a lot harder. Now consider that Indy has the playoffs clinched by week 13 or 14. I doubt you will get the full "Addai experience" during your playoffs run. Again what motivation does Dungy have to pound him late in the season? I can see him dropping down to about 12-15 carries at this point.
So my point is IF you can swing a deal for LJ, or Sjax, or even another great deal, you might want to consider it. (looks like I am about to get LJ, Calvin Johnson, & winslow for Addai, Crayton and scaife)
Addai's value will go up for another week or two max. Then the colts start thier tough stretch.
My point is just consider trading him...I know I am.
BTW I see him as 1300yrds 13 TD max guy right now.
Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. Fourty percent of people know that.