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I thouht i was good at fantasy football :(

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Re: I thouht i was good at fantasy football :(

Postby JasonSeahorn » Mon Sep 24, 2007 12:31 pm

At least in blackjack you can card count
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Thanks to deluxe_247 for sig, he is welcome to sail with the Captain too!

I will win all of the fantasy cafe games.....next year
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Re: I thouht i was good at fantasy football :(

Postby LS2throwed » Mon Sep 24, 2007 12:33 pm

knapplc wrote:The "luck vs. skill" debate has gone on and on here. Personally I fall on the side of Luck having the majority of impact on fantasy football.

Skill comes in to play in your draft, in setting your lineup, making free agent acquisitions and in making trades.

Luck comes in to play in every snap of every play in every game every week of the season. No matter how prepared you are, no matter how much research you do, you have no way of predicting that Patrick Crayton will drop a TD pass that hits him in the hands in week three. You have no idea that Orlando Pace will get hurt and cause Marc Bulger to go in the tank (as well as the rest of the Rams offense). You have no idea that Derek Anderson will light up Cincy like Times Square on a Friday night. You have no idea that touchdowns are going to be called back for ticky-tack holding penalties, or that fumbles recovered and run in for TDs are going to be missed and there will be no conclusive video evidence to overturn the blown call, or that your wide receiver will fumble into the end zone for your opponent's tight end to fall on, bogarting your score.

So much of what happens on the field is luck, and that translates directly onto your scoring sheet in fantasy, that anyone - ANYONE who crows about their genius fantasy skills is blowing so much hot air they could float the Hindenburg.


I agree, but I also think that large leagues (14 teamers) are based alot more on skill (vs 10 or 12) because the talent pool is thin, in 10 team leagues you dont even have to show up for the draft, go with a set lineup all yr and win the championship, in 14 teams you BETTER make the draft, and you have to actually have a really good deep knowledge or players/sleepers and know who you want to start..When injuries happen you need to knwo who you want to fill in, where you can find players etc...So I think the curve goes more towards skill in larger leagues where you cant just coast through
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Re: I thouht i was good at fantasy football :(

Postby J35J » Mon Sep 24, 2007 12:47 pm

knapplc wrote:The "luck vs. skill" debate has gone on and on here. Personally I fall on the side of Luck having the majority of impact on fantasy football.

Skill comes in to play in your draft, in setting your lineup, making free agent acquisitions and in making trades.

Luck comes in to play in every snap of every play in every game every week of the season. No matter how prepared you are, no matter how much research you do, you have no way of predicting that Patrick Crayton will drop a TD pass that hits him in the hands in week three. You have no idea that Orlando Pace will get hurt and cause Marc Bulger to go in the tank (as well as the rest of the Rams offense). You have no idea that Derek Anderson will light up Cincy like Times Square on a Friday night. You have no idea that touchdowns are going to be called back for ticky-tack holding penalties, or that fumbles recovered and run in for TDs are going to be missed and there will be no conclusive video evidence to overturn the blown call, or that your wide receiver will fumble into the end zone for your opponent's tight end to fall on, bogarting your score.

So much of what happens on the field is luck, and that translates directly onto your scoring sheet in fantasy, that anyone - ANYONE who crows about their genius fantasy skills is blowing so much hot air they could float the Hindenburg.


I agree with most of what you said....the reason why I tend to bring it up is because it seems it gets worse and worse every year. Maybe I realize it much more as I get more experience and have just been around the block that much more. I've been playing fantasy (baseball and football) for 9 years now and it seems every new year I learn more and more and more how little anything you do in football really matters. Jamal Lewis goes for 200 yds one week then the next week he goes for 30. Palmer can give you 49 points one week then the next week he gives you 15. The one thing I disagree with is the 50/50 luck to skill percentage. A few years ago I would have agreed with ya there but each year I realize its much more luck than anything. It's gotta be 75% luck for me at this point....its such a crap shoot. It may seem more and more like luck to me because I get in better and better leagues each year which does raise the luck factor.

I don't know.... but I'm counting down the days until I official start my research/ranking/projections for baseball next year. Fantasy Football is just waaaayyyyyy to frustrating to have to deal with, IMO. One of the preseason ranked worst teams in our league this week just went off for 185 pts....there just isn't enough weeks in the fantasy football regular season to make all the wacky things happen ok to deal with. The lowest scoring team in our league is 2-0 with a chance to be 3-0 if everything goes right for him tonight.

Keep in mind I am 2-1 in both my 2 leagues so this isn't just whinning from someone who is 0-3. !+) :-D

Haha, wow, I'll shut up now. Didn't realize I was typing this much about a topic that has been beaten to death!!!
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Re: I thouht i was good at fantasy football :(

Postby knapplc » Mon Sep 24, 2007 1:17 pm

J, I'm not in the 50/50 luck/skill camp. I'm in the 90/10 luck/skill camp.

I have drafted far too many "good" teams that have turned into stinkers simply because on this week or that week this player or that player has a fluke good game or a fluke bad game, and the combination thereof equals a defeat for me. When it comes to luck in fantasy mine tends to be awful. I have great reasons for thinking certain teams/players are going to do well and others poor, but the Cincinnati/Cleveland game last week was a great example of how easily good wisdom can turn bad for inexplicable reasons.

No way should Cleveland EVER put up 51 points on anyone, let alone with their backup quarterback on the field.

Let's put it this way: I have had LT2 and Steve Smith, among other top players, on my roster in my main money league for the past two years. My combined record is 16-10 (not counting my 1-2 record so far this year) and I have failed to make it out of the quarters in the playoffs in either of those years. Both years I set the league record for scoring over a season, but both years I also set the league record for points AGAINST in a season.

But it gets better. I've actually had LT2 on my roster since his second year. In that span I've made the playoffs three times, only one time making it out of the first round, with my best finish losing in the championship round to a guy who set his franchise's single-game scoring record in that game.

Having LT2 on your roster is usually a license to print money, but because of simple bad luck, I have nothing whatsoever to show for it.

It's not that I don't have skill. I have just as much skill as anyone else. I can make spreadsheets with stats analyzed and cross-referenced six ways to Sunday. But fluke after fluke after fluke happens game after game after game, and I have a horrible winning percentage compared to my scoring potential.
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Re: I thouht i was good at fantasy football :(

Postby abrunn11 » Mon Sep 24, 2007 1:25 pm

I am sitting at 0-3 (scores: 72-71, 138-89, and 133-72). It is a 12 team keeper league and I have Peyton, Gore, S. Alexander, L. Fitzgerald, H. Ward and Heap as the core of my team. I currently have the second fewest points scored in the league. I essentially had 3 first round picks and still could not field even a decent team. ugh!
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Re: I thouht i was good at fantasy football :(

Postby J35J » Mon Sep 24, 2007 1:27 pm

knapplc wrote:J, I'm not in the 50/50 luck/skill camp. I'm in the 90/10 luck/skill camp.

I have drafted far too many "good" teams that have turned into stinkers simply because on this week or that week this player or that player has a fluke good game or a fluke bad game, and the combination thereof equals a defeat for me. When it comes to luck in fantasy mine tends to be awful. I have great reasons for thinking certain teams/players are going to do well and others poor, but the Cincinnati/Cleveland game last week was a great example of how easily good wisdom can turn bad for inexplicable reasons.

No way should Cleveland EVER put up 51 points on anyone, let alone with their backup quarterback on the field.

Let's put it this way: I have had LT2 and Steve Smith, among other top players, on my roster in my main money league for the past two years. My combined record is 16-10 (not counting my 1-2 record so far this year) and I have failed to make it out of the quarters in the playoffs in either of those years. Both years I set the league record for scoring over a season, but both years I also set the league record for points AGAINST in a season.

But it gets better. I've actually had LT2 on my roster since his second year. In that span I've made the playoffs three times, only one time making it out of the first round, with my best finish losing in the championship round to a guy who set his franchise's single-game scoring record in that game.

Having LT2 on your roster is usually a license to print money, but because of simple bad luck, I have nothing whatsoever to show for it.

It's not that I don't have skill. I have just as much skill as anyone else. I can make spreadsheets with stats analyzed and cross-referenced six ways to Sunday. But fluke after fluke after fluke happens game after game after game, and I have a horrible winning percentage compared to my scoring potential.


I hear ya, it just "eats" at ya. Its so agrivating! :-[
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Re: I thouht i was good at fantasy football :(

Postby josebach » Mon Sep 24, 2007 1:38 pm

J35J wrote:I don't know.... but I'm counting down the days until I official start my research/ranking/projections for baseball next year. Fantasy Football is just waaaayyyyyy to frustrating to have to deal with, IMO.


I like fantasy baseball better as well. Granted, there's definitely luck in baseball too (especially in H2H), but there's so much you can do throughout the course of the season to fix weaknesses with your team. In football, there might be 5 or 6 impact players you can pick up off the waiver throughout the entire season, and then everybody is fighting for them.

I'm getting ready to win my baseball league and I have one of the most successful teams I've ever seen. Sure, I did tons of research and lots of reading, but the reason I've been so successful is because so many of my hunches paid off. Last year, I thought I had an equally good team at the beginning of the year and finished in 5th (out of 10). Just for fun (and to brag a bit)... check out my baseball record this year in a 10 team annual money league comprised of all fantasy veterans: (I've lost once all year)

1 The Hustlers Win 9 - 0
2 Natty Dreadlocks Loss 3 - 7
3 Slugs Win 7 - 2
4 last place Win 8 - 1
5 The Suckas Tie 5 - 5
6 Capps Bombers Win 6 - 4
7 Benchwarmers Tie 4 - 4
8 Isotopes Win 8 - 2
9 More Cowbell Returns Win 4 - 3
10 The Hustlers Win 8 - 2
11 Natty Dreadlocks Win 6 - 4
12 Slugs Win 6 - 3
13 last place Win 6 - 4
14 The Suckas Win 6 - 4
15 Capps Bombers Win 9 - 1
16 Benchwarmers Tie 5 - 5
17 Isotopes Win 7 - 3
18 More Cowbell Returns Tie 5 - 5
19 The Hustlers Win 6 - 4
20 Natty Dreadlocks Win 5 - 4
21 Slugs Win 6 - 3
22 last place Win 6 - 3

Playoffs:
1st round: bye
2nd round: win 5-3
Championship: winning 7-3


Yeah, I know... who gives a crap?


Well... I do! :-b
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Re: I thouht i was good at fantasy football :(

Postby CC » Mon Sep 24, 2007 2:52 pm

josebach wrote:
J35J wrote:I don't know.... but I'm counting down the days until I official start my research/ranking/projections for baseball next year. Fantasy Football is just waaaayyyyyy to frustrating to have to deal with, IMO.


I like fantasy baseball better as well. Granted, there's definitely luck in baseball too (especially in H2H), but there's so much you can do throughout the course of the season to fix weaknesses with your team. In football, there might be 5 or 6 impact players you can pick up off the waiver throughout the entire season, and then everybody is fighting for them.

I'm getting ready to win my baseball league and I have one of the most successful teams I've ever seen. Sure, I did tons of research and lots of reading, but the reason I've been so successful is because so many of my hunches paid off. Last year, I thought I had an equally good team at the beginning of the year and finished in 5th (out of 10). Just for fun (and to brag a bit)... check out my baseball record this year in a 10 team annual money league comprised of all fantasy veterans: (I've lost once all year)

1 The Hustlers Win 9 - 0
2 Natty Dreadlocks Loss 3 - 7
3 Slugs Win 7 - 2
4 last place Win 8 - 1
5 The Suckas Tie 5 - 5
6 Capps Bombers Win 6 - 4
7 Benchwarmers Tie 4 - 4
8 Isotopes Win 8 - 2
9 More Cowbell Returns Win 4 - 3
10 The Hustlers Win 8 - 2
11 Natty Dreadlocks Win 6 - 4
12 Slugs Win 6 - 3
13 last place Win 6 - 4
14 The Suckas Win 6 - 4
15 Capps Bombers Win 9 - 1
16 Benchwarmers Tie 5 - 5
17 Isotopes Win 7 - 3
18 More Cowbell Returns Tie 5 - 5
19 The Hustlers Win 6 - 4
20 Natty Dreadlocks Win 5 - 4
21 Slugs Win 6 - 3
22 last place Win 6 - 3

Playoffs:
1st round: bye
2nd round: win 5-3
Championship: winning 7-3


Yeah, I know... who gives a crap?


Well... I do! :-b


Baseball is just as much predicated on luck as football, check out my fantasy record for my baseball leagues, and take into account that I only have a cursory knowledge of baseball.

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Keep in mind that in those Cafe Challenge leagues I finished ahead of 5 fantasy baseball experts from the Baseball Cafe in both 2005 and 2006.
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Re: I thouht i was good at fantasy football :(

Postby josebach » Mon Sep 24, 2007 3:16 pm

CC wrote:Baseball is just as much predicated on luck as football, check out my fantasy record for my baseball leagues, and take into account that I only have a cursory knowledge of baseball.

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Keep in mind that in those Cafe Challenge leagues I finished ahead of 5 fantasy baseball experts from the Baseball Cafe in both 2005 and 2006.


Of the guys I've talked to that play both baseball and football, you most definitely hold the minority opinion. Can a poor fantasy baseball player have a good year? Sure. Will they consistantly have good years? No way. It seems to me that the reason you've had the success you've had is that you're a pretty good fantasy baseball player. There's guys in both my baseball and football leagues that are considerably more knowledgeable than I am, but it doesn't mean they're better fantasy players.
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Re: I thouht i was good at fantasy football :(

Postby LS2throwed » Mon Sep 24, 2007 3:23 pm

I also believe some years you get all the luck and others none...this yr the fantasy gods are smiling on me, the past 2 weeks, ive faced the team that has had the lowest score in that particular week, twice in a row, how often does that happen? while teams lose games that score 100, but their opponent, has 120, or they score 110, opponent 130...that doesnt mean your not doing a good job at all or your team is weak, but you need a little luck on your side from time 2 time and when its in your favor and you seem to be winning all the close matchups is when things happen
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