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I thouht i was good at fantasy football :(

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Re: I thouht i was good at fantasy football :(

Postby josebach » Tue Sep 25, 2007 11:21 am

moochman wrote:I should clarify that luck does play a bigger role due to the nature of the games when it comes to injuries. For many players you cannot predict injury and because the player pool is smaller the impact of injuries is more severe. My response was directed more at those who were lamenting the slow starts and poor performances by some upper tier players. Take for example of how lucky a guy was who drafted Randy Moss as opposed to those who drafted Santana Moss. Those who chose Randy may have, unlike me, been able to divorce previous bad experience with Raider Moss and realized that a veteran QB and a system that is pass friendly was a recipe for success. For Santana owners some may have ignored that he would have a young unproven QB. That can often lead to erractic scores and Santana was never known for his consistancy. Multiply that by the Bills and you have Evans. Is that luck?


Yes, it is luck. What you're talking about are educated guesses. Even though they're guesses made based on facts, they're still just guesses. I made an educated guess that the New Orleans offense would be similarly productive this year. Does the fact that this guess has been wrong mean I'm unskilled?

There's only so much knowledge you can obtain that will significantly affect the outcome on any given week. The skill ceiling for fantasy football is VERY low. The cafe has a start & sit section made by "experts", right? Look at their predictions and then see how the players performed in comparison. Every single week is a total crapshoot.
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Re: I thouht i was good at fantasy football :(

Postby J35J » Tue Sep 25, 2007 12:43 pm

josebach wrote: Every single week is a total crapshoot.


Exactly what I was just going to say. You can change out the word "luck" to "crapshoot" if you would like. Either way.....
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Re: I thouht i was good at fantasy football :(

Postby biju » Tue Sep 25, 2007 1:01 pm

It cracks me up when the dark siders start coming over here and whine about FF being all luck based and that FB is the better of the two. This is never going to be a good argument because the dark siders probably like watching baseball more than they do football. I basically can't stand watching baseball unless I'm at the game, but I sometimes wish the football season was played two games a day for 5 months straight so I could get my fix in every day.

There's quite a bit of luck in both games. The difference is whether you enjoy watching paint dry or enjoy watching football. :-D

p.s. - I also suspect all of the people posting about luck in this thread are losing their games. I suppose I would be talking about luck if I were losing too. Maybe you guys should consider the option that you suck at FF instead of calling it lucky.
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Re: I thouht i was good at fantasy football :(

Postby Yoda » Tue Sep 25, 2007 1:14 pm

biju wrote:It cracks me up when the dark siders start coming over here and whine about FF being all luck based and that FB is the better of the two. This is never going to be a good argument because the dark siders probably like watching baseball more than they do football. I basically can't stand watching baseball unless I'm at the game, but I sometimes wish the football season was played two games a day for 5 months straight so I could get my fix in every day.

There's quite a bit of luck in both games. The difference is whether you enjoy watching paint dry or enjoy watching football. :-D

p.s. - I also suspect all of the people posting about luck in this thread are losing their games. I suppose I would be talking about luck if I were losing too. Maybe you guys should consider the option that you suck at FF instead of calling it lucky.


Sorry try again!

I actually have been watching a lot of football, probably more than baseball. Unless one of my pitchers is pitching or it is the MLB playoffs, it is hard for me to sit and watch an entire baseball game even as one of the most avid fans on this planet.

Both games are fun but fantasy football is far, far more luck. The reason why I quit playing FF years ago was because it was too much of crap shoot. I finally accepted the fact that a big part of it is luck and now I can start playing again. Oh, and I have the best record in the league. By far.
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Re: I thouht i was good at fantasy football :(

Postby J35J » Tue Sep 25, 2007 2:04 pm

Yoda wrote:
biju wrote:It cracks me up when the dark siders start coming over here and whine about FF being all luck based and that FB is the better of the two. This is never going to be a good argument because the dark siders probably like watching baseball more than they do football. I basically can't stand watching baseball unless I'm at the game, but I sometimes wish the football season was played two games a day for 5 months straight so I could get my fix in every day.

There's quite a bit of luck in both games. The difference is whether you enjoy watching paint dry or enjoy watching football. :-D

p.s. - I also suspect all of the people posting about luck in this thread are losing their games. I suppose I would be talking about luck if I were losing too. Maybe you guys should consider the option that you suck at FF instead of calling it lucky.


Sorry try again!

I actually have been watching a lot of football, probably more than baseball. Unless one of my pitchers is pitching or it is the MLB playoffs, it is hard for me to sit and watch an entire baseball game even as one of the most avid fans on this planet.

Both games are fun but fantasy football is far, far more luck. The reason why I quit playing FF years ago was because it was too much of crap shoot. I finally accepted the fact that a big part of it is luck and now I can start playing again. Oh, and I have the best record in the league. By far.


I agree completely with Yoda.....it looks like we have very similar views. I like baseball more than football....but not by alot. I will sit down to watch a baseball game on the tv only to be done with it 3 or 4 innings in, with some exceptions of course. If I am home on Sundays I will be watching as much football as I can usually. I've played fantasy football just as long as fantasy baseball (9 years) and will continue to play both...with that said my patience with fantasy football is going down hill every year. I'm 2-1 in both leagues I'm in this year and in the top 3 in points scored in both as well. You call it whinning but I have nothing to really whin about(see my record above), I'm just calling it like I see it and and as long as you don't have a strong dislike for baseball sees it that way too. The funny thing is the guys who frequent both the light side and dark side will agree fantasy baseball is the better game....at least from what I've seen.
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Re: I thouht i was good at fantasy football :(

Postby JasonSeahorn » Tue Sep 25, 2007 2:42 pm

josebach wrote:
moochman wrote:I should clarify that luck does play a bigger role due to the nature of the games when it comes to injuries. For many players you cannot predict injury and because the player pool is smaller the impact of injuries is more severe. My response was directed more at those who were lamenting the slow starts and poor performances by some upper tier players. Take for example of how lucky a guy was who drafted Randy Moss as opposed to those who drafted Santana Moss. Those who chose Randy may have, unlike me, been able to divorce previous bad experience with Raider Moss and realized that a veteran QB and a system that is pass friendly was a recipe for success. For Santana owners some may have ignored that he would have a young unproven QB. That can often lead to erractic scores and Santana was never known for his consistancy. Multiply that by the Bills and you have Evans. Is that luck?


Yes, it is luck. What you're talking about are educated guesses. Even though they're guesses made based on facts, they're still just guesses. I made an educated guess that the New Orleans offense would be similarly productive this year. Does the fact that this guess has been wrong mean I'm unskilled?

There's only so much knowledge you can obtain that will significantly affect the outcome on any given week. The skill ceiling for fantasy football is VERY low. The cafe has a start & sit section made by "experts", right? Look at their predictions and then see how the players performed in comparison. Every single week is a total crapshoot.



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Re: I thouht i was good at fantasy football :(

Postby knapplc » Tue Sep 25, 2007 3:45 pm

josebach wrote:There's only so much knowledge you can obtain that will significantly affect the outcome on any given week. The skill ceiling for fantasy football is VERY low. The cafe has a start & sit section made by "experts", right? Look at their predictions and then see how the players performed in comparison. Every single week is a total crapshoot.

There is actually no vetting process on who can or cannot be a ranker. At this point we're just happy to have a number of people contribute. The hope is that the majority will balance out the crazies among us and that we'll arrive at a reasonable consensus.

What we need are the people in this thread who know everything there possibly is to know about fantasy football, who always win, for whom it is NOT luck, to contribute to those rankings so they'll be really good.

I mean, since it's so easy, since they never lose and since they know more than the rest of us, why DON'T they contribute?

Kind of makes you wonder, huh?

Maybe it's just easier to say you're 2-1 or 3-0 than to actually prove what you know? :-?
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Re: I thouht i was good at fantasy football :(

Postby eaglesrule » Tue Sep 25, 2007 6:27 pm

i know more about football, but like the baseball format better. To say its all luck is absurd. I have played with the same handfuls of guys in many cases for several years now. You can fix a mistake a lot easier in baseball, which isn't to say that it is easy. But there is actual debate about the first round, and I don't mean in the order--you actually have debate as to who is worthy. You can have a much more varied draft strategy, and even in shallower leagues, the breadth of players you need to know about is pretty wide, due to the amount of positions and stats represented in fantasy baseball. There is luck involved, but come on, the reason a lot of hitters are stars is because they have predictable results. I mean how many times have we heard a football pundit say "this isn't baseball, the stats can be misleading"? I think baseball is far more predicatable, because you can't keep someone's offense off the field or limit their snaps through strategy. You can't turn it over etc. Every player gets their turn, and there is nothing the other side can really do about it. I think that's why that while you have unpredicatable bad years. But in baseball, a bad year out of arod or manny or pujols for that matter isn't an abomination, it just isn't what you paid for ... Now if you have sjax or another highly ranked stud, three games is such a big proportion of your season, that to get one game above .500 is basically half the fantasy season. You can right the ship to some degree in fantasy baseball, as you have a little more leeway in trading--you can punt a category in baseball, but not a whole position in football.

In football, unless someone wants to gut their team, its almost impossible to put together a package to get an LT, and it rarely makes sense to trade down if you have him, since you drafted accordingly. In baseball, sometimes you can make a case for "splitting a stud" and it can frequently help you come back.

I think cleveland putting up 51 is a case in point... oddities happen in baseball, but the sample size is such, by halfway, you can see the trends, splits etc.

One other thing, I think a lot of the skill in fantasy actually comes from understanding market values and player distribution once teams have been drafted. Unless you are playing with total newbies (and even then), you really can't address every single need in roto, sometimes you need to wheel and deal and see what cats you really need, and which ones you can float on by. This is distinct in football, because trades can be much harder to evaluate, as they incorporate stats, predictions, scarcity, and economics--people have certain stats distributed in certain ways--ways that might not be representative of the greater fantasy knowledgebase. A lot of the skill comes in evaluating that against position, and working out deals before your rivals do. Not to mention you can make deals to trip up your rivals--trading steals to the guy in second in that cat to trip up your competition, etc.
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Re: I thouht i was good at fantasy football :(

Postby schismatized » Tue Sep 25, 2007 6:35 pm

**IDEA** We need to come up with a FF style game that lets you have more control and emphasizes skill and strategy rather than luck! Oh wait madden deleted that 3 years ago... :-°
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Re: I thouht i was good at fantasy football :(

Postby DVauthrin » Tue Sep 25, 2007 6:54 pm

I've played fantasy football and know who is good who isn't. But you can be as savvy as you want and injuries can still derail your teams and predictions. or what if your rb happens to play one week where his D forgets to show up so they have to pass the whole 2nd half. etc
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