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This is so dumb, I feel I am missing something

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Re: This is so dumb, I feel I am missing something

Postby eaglesrule » Wed Oct 17, 2007 9:37 am

quitesanemax wrote:I don't see that it matters in determining who you would play. You play the best QB you have. Heres a scenario where he'd be doing good, and you'd do bad to play Kitna. If each of his WRs gets 100 yards, but scores no TDs, in most leagues thats 30 pts for him, and 10 pts (1 pt/30 yds) for you. Likely for every TD you get, he gets one too. And you get penalized for Kitna's interceptions. Yeah its dumb that he is playing 3 WRs from the same team (assuming he has other reasonable choices), but I don't see how that has anything to do with your decision of who to play at QB.


I see what you are saying, and I almost always agree with it, but has williams, johsnon and mcdonald. Basically none of them can score without Kitna, however Kitna can score without them. The yardage differential does tilt it in his favor a bit, but he can't get a TD without me as I see it.

I know the "rule" is to play the best you have. But usually that's like where your opponent has one receiver that your QB starts, this is really odd, as I never encountered it before, and I am wondering if conventional wisdom is wrong here, in that in a 300 yard day, assuming that each of those guys gets 100 which almost certainly won't happen, I spot him 18 points in yardage, but cancel out the TDs of three positions at the cost of my one position. Then basically in my opinion its my three wr's versus his damon huard(I have moss, housh, welker), and I think looking at it that way, I gotta like my odds.

thoughts?
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Re: This is so dumb, I feel I am missing something

Postby Goody » Wed Oct 17, 2007 10:07 am

You are looking way too much into this. If Kitna is your best option this week, go with him. There are many scenarios that can play out and I think you are only thinking about a couple of them. If Kitna throws for 300 yds 1 TD and a WR gets a rushing TD, His WR could all have 100 yd each with 1 guy getting a rec TD and rushing TD. He gets 1 pt for every 10 yds and you get 1 pt for every 25, so his WR outscore Kitna 42 to 18 assuming Kitna doesn't throw any INT. Your thoughts are off and you just need to figure out what is best for YOUR lineup. Not what you should do because he is playing 3 WR from the same team (that you have the QB).
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Re: This is so dumb, I feel I am missing something

Postby JasonSeahorn » Wed Oct 17, 2007 12:47 pm

Goody wrote:You are looking way too much into this. If Kitna is your best option this week, go with him. There are many scenarios that can play out and I think you are only thinking about a couple of them. If Kitna throws for 300 yds 1 TD and a WR gets a rushing TD, His WR could all have 100 yd each with 1 guy getting a rec TD and rushing TD. He gets 1 pt for every 10 yds and you get 1 pt for every 25, so his WR outscore Kitna 42 to 18 assuming Kitna doesn't throw any INT. Your thoughts are off and you just need to figure out what is best for YOUR lineup. Not what you should do because he is playing 3 WR from the same team (that you have the QB).



this really screwed me last year. i started delhomme vs steve smith. delhomme did nothing. steve smith got a rushing touchdown. i lost by 2 points.
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Re: This is so dumb, I feel I am missing something

Postby eaglesrule » Wed Oct 17, 2007 1:16 pm

I am factoring in the fluke effect. But the reality is, it seems more likely that these guys aren't likely to score without Kitna delivering the ball. Like I said earlier, I haven't looked at this type of situation in a while, because if your opponent has your QB1's main receiver, there is too much variarion. But this guy has Kitna's three main weapons, so unless they rush for one, Kitna gets those TDs too. In addition, Kitna could get TDs they can't.

I'm not factoring fluke stuff like fumble returns or something, because really, how could you?
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Re: This is so dumb, I feel I am missing something

Postby FatFoot » Wed Oct 17, 2007 1:28 pm

It's pretty obvious, and I agree with the decision, personally.

Think of your teams as independent. All you're trying to do is score as many points as possible. If Kitna is your best option to accomplish that, then he's your start, regardless of who your opponent is playing.

AFTER coming to that conclusion, you can consider who your opponent is playing, and wonder how that pans out. And simply put, YES, their scoring is related, but no, that doesn't play a role in your decision making. If Kitna throws 3 TDs, that dude's going to get 1-3 of them. Whether you play Kitna or not, he's going to get 1-3 of those TDs. So you just act on "who is my best QB for this weekend?"

Another thing to consider... TD threats for the Lions = McDonald, Williams, Furrey, Calvin Johnson, and the rare TE or RB screen type situation. He's obviously not going to start all of that, and there's a good chance you'll pick up a TD that he won't score.

But yes, I love the idea that someone is relying on your QB to get points for his receiver. Because then you CAN rest a little easier if one of those guys has a stud day.
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Re: This is so dumb, I feel I am missing something

Postby mistersmiles13 » Wed Oct 17, 2007 4:57 pm

I don't think it's ever a good idea to consider your opponents lineup when you are trying to figure out who you want to start. Don't fall into the trap of trying to counteract you oppositions players or sitting a QB just cause he's playing against your defence etc. In my experience, that has not worked out much for me. Don't look at your opponents matchup until after you set your team. That way you don't consider things that don't matter in the end. Play who you think is going to get you the most points.
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Re: This is so dumb, I feel I am missing something

Postby eaglesrule » Thu Oct 18, 2007 8:21 am

yea usually I do. But I don't think hard and fast rules are always a good idea, and man, I never encountered this before.
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Re: This is so dumb, I feel I am missing something

Postby FatFoot » Fri Oct 19, 2007 6:42 pm

eaglesrule wrote:But I don't think hard and fast rules are always a good idea


OooooOOOoooooh a PARADOX!:)
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Re: This is so dumb, I feel I am missing something

Postby pangbones » Fri Oct 19, 2007 9:57 pm

I totally agree with you. You already said that Kitna is your starter, so you would be starting him anyways. The fact that he is playing 3 Detroit WR's, gives you a big advantage IMO. It depends on the scoring of your league, but most likely Kitna will come close to matching all 3 of his WR's. Sure one of the WR's could run one in, but I'd take that bet every week, and twice on Sunday's that they don't. Start Kitna with confidence!! ;-D
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Re: This is so dumb, I feel I am missing something

Postby eaglesrule » Sat Oct 20, 2007 12:08 am

pangbones wrote:I totally agree with you. You already said that Kitna is your starter, so you would be starting him anyways. The fact that he is playing 3 Detroit WR's, gives you a big advantage IMO. It depends on the scoring of your league, but most likely Kitna will come close to matching all 3 of his WR's. Sure one of the WR's could run one in, but I'd take that bet every week, and twice on Sunday's that they don't. Start Kitna with confidence!! ;-D


well, I don't want this to be a start or sit question (which it isn't because I am starting kitna whom I drafted--against my better judgment, the cafe consensus convinced me otherwise--and qbs get .5 points per completion. I don't want this thread to have a start or sit twinge to it, as I am starting him regardless (I do have griese, young, and now campbell, who was taken on a whim, as I had a bench spot and he was the best guy on the wire). Just curious, as I thought this deviated a little from the new wisdom of playing your team regardless of opponent, I've never seen this before really.

Interesting debate, I just think, say I start campbell (which I won't be doing), and he gets two TDs... the detroit wrs will still get what they will, but say jason gets 250 yards and 2 tds--good day. But I feel like either way, barring trickery, I am at least wasting the other guys tds in three spots.

For debates sake (and again, this isn't start/sit, as I am doing this), basically, if we consider the qb plus 3 starting wr spots, I have kitna, moss, houshmanzadeh, welker versus his huard, williams, johnson, mcdonald. I think this is dumb for him, because huard has to make up yardage plus tds in this scenario. Basically if all else is equal, he is gonna lose. And I need to waste this guy as he has already beaten my brother, dad, college roommate, super close friend.. and his team is kind of weak--hence my interest.

For those interested, the rest of the matchup is as follows:

westbrook, bush, cooley, ginn jr. (wr/te flex, return yards are at 25 per point), marshawn lynch (regular flex) gould, giants.

his team:

ronnie brown, earnest graham, clark, galloway (wr/te), ike hilliard (wr/rb) vinatieri, houston.

Honestly, I think he is toast, as NE should score oodles of points, giving me at least a TD worth of production from Ginn.
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