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Re: OFFICIAL CAFE Top 25 Week 2

Postby Free Bagel » Wed Oct 24, 2007 12:02 pm

knapplc wrote:Do they really deserve to be #3? Probably not. They're a good team and they've got some great kids, but they're playing way over their heads.


I think this is why a lot of our rankings differ by quite a bit...difference in philosophy. I see arguments started for teams like USF, Kansas, Hawaii, etc that start with things like "I don't really think they're the xth best team" or "I don't think they'd beat most of the teams ranked behind them" and I just think to myself "then don't put them there!"

To me, rankings are about picking out the best teams. If you put team A ahead of team B, that means you think team A is better than team B. If you put team C at #6 in your rankings, that means you think they're the 6th best team in the country. Better than team 7, better than team 8, etc.

I don't see the point in rankings if we're saying things like "well I don't really think they're that good, but they try hard and that makes me happy".

It's the same kind of thing with teams that have walked through easy schedules and people like to defend with "well it's not their fault they haven't played anyone"? Who cares who's fault it is? Our job is to take what we have and pick the best teams from it. And if what we have is that a team has played a schedule that is such a joke that they may as well be 0-0, then so be it. To me, going 1-1 against a pair of top 10 teams is a whooollllleee lot more impressive than going 6-0 against a pile of teams that are D2 or are lucky they haven't been relegated to that status. But people (real voters included) are stuck with this notion of what kids deserve. They didn't lose so they don't deserve to be behind a team that did, even though I can tell that the other team is better (and yes, we can be wrong about what we think we can tell, but that's why there's more than 1 voter).

Who cares who's fault it is or what people deserve? It wasn't LSU's fault that they played the most disgusting road schedule most of us have ever seen last year, but they were still punished for it. To me, we're supposed to be picking out the best teams, and to show me you're a good team you have to show me on the field....against other good teams. Beating Southeast Missouri doesn't show me anything, and quite frankly shouldn't even count. I'd be more impressed by a team losing by 14 points to a top 5 team than I would be a team beating a no namer 40-0. While they're an awful team, and it does more to hurt Oklahoma's perception than it does to raise theirs, can anyone here honestly say that Iowa State beating SE Missouri St 40-0 would've raised their perception of ISU more than them staying in the game with Oklahoma did?

So if your intent is not to say that team A is the xth best team in the country, then don't put them at that spot because that is exactly what you're saying. If your intent is not to say that Kansas is better than Oklahoma straight up, then don't rank them ahead of them because that is exactly what you're saying.

EDIT: this is not meant to be directed at USF specifically. Many of these points don't apply to them.
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Re: OFFICIAL CAFE Top 25 Week 2

Postby knapplc » Wed Oct 24, 2007 12:10 pm

Free Bagel wrote:So if your intent is not to say that team A is the xth best team in the country, then don't put them at that spot because that is exactly what you're saying. If your intent is not to say that Kansas is better than Oklahoma straight up, then don't rank them ahead of them because that is exactly what you're saying.

Your points are well taken. At the end of the day, I legitimately think USF should be #3 right now, as in - they are better than anyone else I see up there right now. On a neutral field, blah blah blah.

Having said that, I don't think ANYONE in the nation this year is a "legitimate" team. This has to be the biggest mess of a season I've ever seen, where every team has focus issues, talent issues, schedule issues, whatever. There isn't a team in the nation that wouldn't get their a$$ handed to them by the Oklahomas of the 1980s, the Nebraskas of the 1990s, Miami earlier this decade, Notre Dame pre 1990 for about 100 years, etc. These teams are a pale comparison to the football I cut my teeth on, that I can say for certain.
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Re: OFFICIAL CAFE Top 25 Week 2

Postby knapplc » Wed Oct 24, 2007 12:26 pm

One more thing I will say - I probably didn't put as much thought into this as I should have, otherwise I wouldn't have put OSU #1. Again there's a "deserving" conversation to be had here, and it's hard to say with the way they've played they deserve to be #1.

I'll think about it more next time.
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Re: OFFICIAL CAFE Top 25 Week 2

Postby Metroid » Wed Oct 24, 2007 12:38 pm

knapplc wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:So if your intent is not to say that team A is the xth best team in the country, then don't put them at that spot because that is exactly what you're saying. If your intent is not to say that Kansas is better than Oklahoma straight up, then don't rank them ahead of them because that is exactly what you're saying.

Your points are well taken. At the end of the day, I legitimately think USF should be #3 right now, as in - they are better than anyone else I see up there right now. On a neutral field, blah blah blah.

Better that Oregon, Oklahoma, Florida? No way man, not even if they were playing at USF. Of course it's all matter of opinion. :-?
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Re: OFFICIAL CAFE Top 25 Week 2

Postby knapplc » Wed Oct 24, 2007 12:53 pm

Metroid wrote:
knapplc wrote:
Free Bagel wrote:So if your intent is not to say that team A is the xth best team in the country, then don't put them at that spot because that is exactly what you're saying. If your intent is not to say that Kansas is better than Oklahoma straight up, then don't rank them ahead of them because that is exactly what you're saying.

Your points are well taken. At the end of the day, I legitimately think USF should be #3 right now, as in - they are better than anyone else I see up there right now. On a neutral field, blah blah blah.

Better that Oregon, Oklahoma, Florida? No way man, not even if they were playing at USF. Of course it's all matter of opinion. :-?

I've watched all three teams play and I can honestly say that the difference between them is not great. USF could very easily beat the Florida team that lost to Auburn, or the Oklahoma team that lost to Colorado. Of course, either Florida or Oklahoma team could beat the USF team that lost to Rutgers in a difficult game to watch for those of us drinking the South Florida kool-aid.

There isn't a team in the top 25 that couldn't beat any other team in the top 25 this year. The differences between all of these teams is pretty small, and largely boils down to motivation on a particular day. From what I've seen of USF, they're far more motivated on a regular basis than most of the other teams out there.
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Re: OFFICIAL CAFE Top 25 Week 2

Postby Metroid » Wed Oct 24, 2007 1:04 pm

knapplc wrote:I've watched all three teams play and I can honestly say that the difference between them is not great. USF could very easily beat the Florida team that lost to Auburn, or the Oklahoma team that lost to Colorado. Of course, either Florida or Oklahoma team could beat the USF team that lost to Rutgers in a difficult game to watch for those of us drinking the South Florida kool-aid.

There isn't a team in the top 25 that couldn't beat any other team in the top 25 this year. The differences between all of these teams is pretty small, and largely boils down to motivation on a particular day. From what I've seen of USF, they're far more motivated on a regular basis than most of the other teams out there.


But after watching Oregon vs. Washington(55-34), Oklahoma vs. Iowa St.(17-7), Florida vs. Kentucky(45-37) and USF vs. Rutgers(27-30) last week can you really say that USF is the better team right now? Really?
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Re: OFFICIAL CAFE Top 25 Week 2

Postby HskrPwr13 » Wed Oct 24, 2007 1:09 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
knapplc wrote:Do they really deserve to be #3? Probably not. They're a good team and they've got some great kids, but they're playing way over their heads.


I think this is why a lot of our rankings differ by quite a bit...difference in philosophy. I see arguments started for teams like USF, Kansas, Hawaii, etc that start with things like "I don't really think they're the xth best team" or "I don't think they'd beat most of the teams ranked behind them" and I just think to myself "then don't put them there!"

To me, rankings are about picking out the best teams. If you put team A ahead of team B, that means you think team A is better than team B. If you put team C at #6 in your rankings, that means you think they're the 6th best team in the country. Better than team 7, better than team 8, etc.

I don't see the point in rankings if we're saying things like "well I don't really think they're that good, but they try hard and that makes me happy".

It's the same kind of thing with teams that have walked through easy schedules and people like to defend with "well it's not their fault they haven't played anyone"? Who cares who's fault it is? Our job is to take what we have and pick the best teams from it. And if what we have is that a team has played a schedule that is such a joke that they may as well be 0-0, then so be it. To me, going 1-1 against a pair of top 10 teams is a whooollllleee lot more impressive than going 6-0 against a pile of teams that are D2 or are lucky they haven't been relegated to that status. But people (real voters included) are stuck with this notion of what kids deserve. They didn't lose so they don't deserve to be behind a team that did, even though I can tell that the other team is better (and yes, we can be wrong about what we think we can tell, but that's why there's more than 1 voter).

Who cares who's fault it is or what people deserve? It wasn't LSU's fault that they played the most disgusting road schedule most of us have ever seen last year, but they were still punished for it. To me, we're supposed to be picking out the best teams, and to show me you're a good team you have to show me on the field....against other good teams. Beating Southeast Missouri doesn't show me anything, and quite frankly shouldn't even count. I'd be more impressed by a team losing by 14 points to a top 5 team than I would be a team beating a no namer 40-0. While they're an awful team, and it does more to hurt Oklahoma's perception than it does to raise theirs, can anyone here honestly say that Iowa State beating SE Missouri St 40-0 would've raised their perception of ISU more than them staying in the game with Oklahoma did?

So if your intent is not to say that team A is the xth best team in the country, then don't put them at that spot because that is exactly what you're saying. If your intent is not to say that Kansas is better than Oklahoma straight up, then don't rank them ahead of them because that is exactly what you're saying.

EDIT: this is not meant to be directed at USF specifically. Many of these points don't apply to them.


This begs the question that I had earlier. At one point do you start taking a team's record (i.e. their losses) into consideration? Auburn was the team used in the discussion. You cant just take the attitude that "because I think this team is better than this one that thats all that matters". You paranthesised the best arguement against your line of thinking. Its just opinion. True, that its all just opinion once you get down to the brass tacks of it, but I'd rather know that opinions have some indisputable FACTS to back them up and not just all or mostly gut-feeling based. I see no way that one could factually argue that a team with a barely over .600 winning percentage should be in the top10 even if your opinion is that on-paper, they should be the better team than teams x,y, and z that are batting 1.000. Obviously, a team like Hawaii, I'd be willing to give an exeption to since they've truly played nobodys (worse than middle of the road teams), and at times looked unimpressive against them. The best rankings probably lie somewhere in the middle of the schedule v. record debate, or the "what have you done for me lately" crowd v. the "complete body of work" crowd. This is why I like the computers' (the original formulas) body of work so much better than that of the humans. The logic behind the rankings cannot be questioned, only the human formulas.
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Re: OFFICIAL CAFE Top 25 Week 2

Postby knapplc » Wed Oct 24, 2007 1:10 pm

Metroid wrote:
knapplc wrote:I've watched all three teams play and I can honestly say that the difference between them is not great. USF could very easily beat the Florida team that lost to Auburn, or the Oklahoma team that lost to Colorado. Of course, either Florida or Oklahoma team could beat the USF team that lost to Rutgers in a difficult game to watch for those of us drinking the South Florida kool-aid.

There isn't a team in the top 25 that couldn't beat any other team in the top 25 this year. The differences between all of these teams is pretty small, and largely boils down to motivation on a particular day. From what I've seen of USF, they're far more motivated on a regular basis than most of the other teams out there.


But after watching Oregon vs. Washington(55-34), Oklahoma vs. Iowa St.(17-7), Florida vs. Kentucky(45-37) and USF vs. Rutgers(27-30) last week can you really say that USF is the better team right now? Really?

If you are judging the entirety of the season on one week, I'd say you and I have very different rankings philosophies. I look a team's body of work as a whole, not only their last game.

Can you really say there's no chance that USF would beat Oklahoma, Oregon or Florida? No chance at all? I think you're kidding yourself if the answer is yes.

How many USF games have you watched this year?
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Re: OFFICIAL CAFE Top 25 Week 2

Postby ShoelessJoe » Wed Oct 24, 2007 1:42 pm

knapplc wrote:
Metroid wrote:
knapplc wrote:I've watched all three teams play and I can honestly say that the difference between them is not great. USF could very easily beat the Florida team that lost to Auburn, or the Oklahoma team that lost to Colorado. Of course, either Florida or Oklahoma team could beat the USF team that lost to Rutgers in a difficult game to watch for those of us drinking the South Florida kool-aid.

There isn't a team in the top 25 that couldn't beat any other team in the top 25 this year. The differences between all of these teams is pretty small, and largely boils down to motivation on a particular day. From what I've seen of USF, they're far more motivated on a regular basis than most of the other teams out there.


But after watching Oregon vs. Washington(55-34), Oklahoma vs. Iowa St.(17-7), Florida vs. Kentucky(45-37) and USF vs. Rutgers(27-30) last week can you really say that USF is the better team right now? Really?

If you are judging the entirety of the season on one week, I'd say you and I have very different rankings philosophies. I look a team's body of work as a whole, not only their last game.

Can you really say there's no chance that USF would beat Oklahoma, Oregon or Florida? No chance at all? I think you're kidding yourself if the answer is yes.

How many USF games have you watched this year?


Not that this can really be argued (it's more of an observation than a quantitative example) but I watched USF play Auburn, W VA, and Rutgers and I don't think they're strong enough to beat Oklahoma, Oregon, or Florida. The Auburn and W Va teams had tough matchups against USF. They are teams built on speed. USF is built on speed. But when they go against power (see Ray Rice and Rutgers) they cannot hold up. If USF was forced to try to stop Jonathan Stewart or Patrick/Murray between the tackles they simply wouldn't be able to. The same can be said if USF were to play Auburn now that they have Brad Lester back.

That brings up another point. A lot of football is matchups. W VA, IMO, is better than USF but I'd bet USF would beat them 7 out of 10 times because of the way the teams matchup. How does that weigh into a ranking? That kind of messes with my entire, neutral field argument but it is something to consider.
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Re: OFFICIAL CAFE Top 25 Week 2

Postby knapplc » Wed Oct 24, 2007 1:48 pm

ShoelessJoe wrote:That brings up another point. A lot of football is matchups. W VA, IMO, is better than USF but I'd bet USF would beat them 7 out of 10 times because of the way the teams matchup. How does that weigh into a ranking? That kind of messes with my entire, neutral field argument but it is something to consider.

Matchups are really important. Just ask Michigan. App State happened to match up against the Wolverines very well.
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