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OFFICIAL CAFE Top 25 Week 2

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Re: OFFICIAL CAFE Top 25 Week 2

Postby deerayfan072 » Wed Oct 24, 2007 2:05 pm

ShoelessJoe wrote:
Not that this can really be argued (it's more of an observation than a quantitative example) but I watched USF play Auburn, W VA, and Rutgers and I don't think they're strong enough to beat Oklahoma, Oregon, or Florida. The Auburn and W Va teams had tough matchups against USF. They are teams built on speed. USF is built on speed. But when they go against power (see Ray Rice and Rutgers) they cannot hold up. If USF was forced to try to stop Jonathan Stewart or Patrick/Murray between the tackles they simply wouldn't be able to. The same can be said if USF were to play Auburn now that they have Brad Lester back.

That brings up another point. A lot of football is matchups. W VA, IMO, is better than USF but I'd bet USF would beat them 7 out of 10 times because of the way the teams matchup. How does that weigh into a ranking? That kind of messes with my entire, neutral field argument but it is something to consider.


I totally agree.

I have seen EVERY USF game this year. I root for them, until their fans became obnoxious and needed a loss, becuase they are in Tampa and started their team 10 years ago when I was in Tampa. USF has a great defense that is built on speed and matchups up great against teams like WVU that try to get tp the outside. As Joe said, against a power team they would get run over. Also, their offense is donwright terrible. Groethe is a poor man's Tim Tebow and if you keep him inside the pocket, like Rutgers did in the second half, he is god awful. As a whole he is good, becuase he creates plays, but if you spy him he cannot make throws and when he does his wide outs drop them

USF visits UConn this week where they have had a tough time. They lost their starting tackle for 2-4 weeks and their best wide out as well. We should see now how good this team is.
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Re: OFFICIAL CAFE Top 25 Week 2

Postby Metroid » Wed Oct 24, 2007 2:22 pm

knapplc wrote:
Metroid wrote:
knapplc wrote:I've watched all three teams play and I can honestly say that the difference between them is not great. USF could very easily beat the Florida team that lost to Auburn, or the Oklahoma team that lost to Colorado. Of course, either Florida or Oklahoma team could beat the USF team that lost to Rutgers in a difficult game to watch for those of us drinking the South Florida kool-aid.

There isn't a team in the top 25 that couldn't beat any other team in the top 25 this year. The differences between all of these teams is pretty small, and largely boils down to motivation on a particular day. From what I've seen of USF, they're far more motivated on a regular basis than most of the other teams out there.


But after watching Oregon vs. Washington(55-34), Oklahoma vs. Iowa St.(17-7), Florida vs. Kentucky(45-37) and USF vs. Rutgers(27-30) last week can you really say that USF is the better team right now? Really?

If you are judging the entirety of the season on one week, I'd say you and I have very different rankings philosophies. I look a team's body of work as a whole, not only their last game.

Can you really say there's no chance that USF would beat Oklahoma, Oregon or Florida? No chance at all? I think you're kidding yourself if the answer is yes.

How many USF games have you watched this year?

No I base my rankings on body of work as well but also the what have you done lately comes into play. Keeping USF at #3 after losing to an unranked Rutgers team just doesn't seem right.
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Re: OFFICIAL CAFE Top 25 Week 2

Postby Metroid » Wed Oct 24, 2007 2:27 pm

deerayfan072 wrote:USF visits UConn this week where they have had a tough time. They lost their starting tackle for 2-4 weeks and their best wide out as well. We should see now how good this team is.

We saw how good they were last week. I expect them to lose a tight one against UConn and Cincy the following week. Hell I wouldn't be surprised is they come away with only 2 wins in their last 5 games.
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Re: OFFICIAL CAFE Top 25 Week 2

Postby knapplc » Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:00 pm

By the way, this debate we're having regarding who would beat who is precisely why we need a playoff system. ;-D
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Re: OFFICIAL CAFE Top 25 Week 2

Postby Metroid » Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:07 pm

knapplc wrote:By the way, this debate we're having regarding who would beat who is precisely why we need a playoff system. ;-D

You can say that again brother. ;-D
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Re: OFFICIAL CAFE Top 25 Week 2

Postby CC » Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:10 pm

knapplc wrote:
ShoelessJoe wrote:That brings up another point. A lot of football is matchups. W VA, IMO, is better than USF but I'd bet USF would beat them 7 out of 10 times because of the way the teams matchup. How does that weigh into a ranking? That kind of messes with my entire, neutral field argument but it is something to consider.

Matchups are really important. Just ask Michigan. App State happened to match up against the Wolverines very well.


That was also a great example of crappy coaching and a refusal to adjust to the way the game is being played, and a result of some terrible luck.
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Re: OFFICIAL CAFE Top 25 Week 2

Postby deerayfan072 » Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:16 pm

CC wrote:
knapplc wrote:
ShoelessJoe wrote:That brings up another point. A lot of football is matchups. W VA, IMO, is better than USF but I'd bet USF would beat them 7 out of 10 times because of the way the teams matchup. How does that weigh into a ranking? That kind of messes with my entire, neutral field argument but it is something to consider.

Matchups are really important. Just ask Michigan. App State happened to match up against the Wolverines very well.


That was also a great example of crappy coaching and a refusal to adjust to the way the game is being played, and a result of some terrible luck.


agreed. They should have adjusted in that game at half and never did.

Also, there were two blocked kicks werent there? Those are usually luck in my mind
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Re: OFFICIAL CAFE Top 25 Week 2

Postby statsman88 » Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:58 pm

Daddymike59 wrote:I would like to see some of the formulas that some peop;le (MIKUS) came up with (Statsman)

I'm way too homified, I guess.


My formula was this:
weight of team X height of team / number of games played^3 x # of letters in coach's name = your ranking







anyway to answer your question seriously, I rate teams based on who I believe are the bests teams, not the best records. I do "if team A plays team B on a neutral site who would win" for some of the rankings. Thats why I have 10 teams in front of Ohio St. I think 10 teams are better than them, thats why Florida is #2
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Re: OFFICIAL CAFE Top 25 Week 2

Postby ShoelessJoe » Wed Oct 24, 2007 6:40 pm

statsman88 wrote:anyway to answer your question seriously, I rate teams based on who I believe are the bests teams, not the best records. I do "if team A plays team B on a neutral site who would win" for some of the rankings. Thats why I have 10 teams in front of Ohio St. I think 10 teams are better than them, thats why Florida is #2


Have I mentioned how much I love Big 10 voters?

In all seriousness though, I'm also getting from us doing these rankings that ESPN and the media have more of an effect than I originally thought. I always knew that they meant a lot but here's the way I see it now. On a small scale, as posters we influence one another. For example, there are so many UF and Nebraska fans on this site (in proportion to other school's reps) that we tend to make both teams out to being better than they really are. If you just read this website you'd think it would be UF and Nebraska in New Orleans for sure.

Now extrapolate that out to the real media and ESPN. The games they televise and talk up do so much for those teams. It's basic human nature to identify with the team that you are most exposed to. For most of us it's our local teams. (if you grew up in Atlanta, you like the Falcons, etc etc) But for those people who don't have local teams have multiple teams which we like, then our exposure turns to the media. Take a poll of fans and who's their favorite teams? Notre Dame, USC, Michigan. Who gets the most attention? Those schools. It's a huge circle because now the media sees who everyone's favorite team is and turns up the attention. (Think how much publicity the Yankees and Red Sox get in baseball. The more publicity they get, the more fans they get, and the more fans they get, the more publicity they get, it goes on forever)

I think this heavily influences voters also. Take Kansas for example. I've read a ton of times in this thread and last week's that people weren't sure what to do with Kansas because they hadn't seen them play (myself included until last Saturday). So what did we do with them? We gave them as much respect as the media has been giving them... none. As long as ESPN and the media keep covering the major schools (IE Texas, Florida, Ohio St, etc) it will be very tough for a school like USF or BC to make it into the NC game and maintain a high ranking because the voters will shy away from them just as the viewers will. It's a shitty system and I think the media is only making matters worse.
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Re: OFFICIAL CAFE Top 25 Week 2

Postby CC » Wed Oct 24, 2007 8:11 pm

statsman88 wrote:
Daddymike59 wrote:I would like to see some of the formulas that some peop;le (MIKUS) came up with (Statsman)

I'm way too homified, I guess.


My formula was this:
weight of team X height of team / number of games played^3 x # of letters in coach's name = your ranking







anyway to answer your question seriously, I rate teams based on who I believe are the bests teams, not the best records. I do "if team A plays team B on a neutral site who would win" for some of the rankings. Thats why I have 10 teams in front of Ohio St. I think 10 teams are better than them, thats why Florida is #2


Yet Auburn beat Florida in the Swamp, doesn't this defeat your whole ranking system since you have them behind Florida in your rankings.
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