Fantasy Football Cafe Forum

by **BALCO All-Stars** » Thu Oct 25, 2007 10:28 am

Hey guys...luckily the Redskins held on last week...quick recap...140 players down to 25, can reuse teams over and over. as the season goes on, the commissioner removes the "obvious" choices to spice things up. Two weeks ago owners couldn't pick NE or Baltimore, last week just NE was off the list, but this week...oh boy...we can't pick NE, NYG, Tennessee (home vs Oakland), or San Diego and Cardinals, Falcons, Ravens, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Seahawks are on byes. So that leaves the following games:

Detroit @ Chicago
Philadelphia @ Minnesota
Cleveland @ St Louis
Indy @ Carolina
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
Jacksonville @ Tampa Bay
Buffalo @ NYJ
New Orleans @ SF
Green Bay @ Denver

I normally only pick home teams...so following that "rule", I think the best game on the board is Tampa Bay @ home over the Jaguars. Quinn Gray looked BRUTAL on MNF vs the Colts (Gerrard is out a few weeks) and MJD was hurt (although he expects to play). I don't trust Chicago enough (and I'm a Bears fan)...Minnesota vs PHI no, St Louis vs CLE no, Cincy vs PIT no, NYJ vs BUG no, SF vs New Orleans no, and Denver vs GB no.

I guess my other option would be to take the Colts @ Carolina. Carolina is 4-0 on the road (beat STL, ATL, NO, ARZ), but 0-2 at home (HOU and TB)...but I normally do not like taking road teams...thoughts? Plus, I try to take picks that aren't as obvious (but just as solid) in hopes that the obvious pick gets knocked out and takes a lot of players with them...thanks guys!

by **mikus** » Thu Oct 25, 2007 10:47 am

I like the Tampa Bay pick.

by **BALCO All-Stars** » Thu Oct 25, 2007 11:17 am

My buddy and I are having a conversation about picking Tampa or picking Indy. I like to use the "implied odds" theory that you use in poker...I could win the whole thing this week if everyone and their mother picks the Colts and they lose while I pick a not so obvious choice and survive. It was like in 2003 (I think it was 03) where Houston went into Miami and beat Miami and I would bet that at least 75% of everyone in every pool was knocked out in Week 1...but the flip side of the argument is to take the obvious pick and increase your chances to survive until the next week...I think he's still mad for drinking the Bears kool-aid after the Bears won @ GB but then lost to Minnesota at home and he was knocked out of this pool.