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Playing Kicker Matchups?

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Playing Kicker Matchups?

Postby milo » Wed Oct 31, 2007 9:51 am

The past 3 weeks I have been grabbing the kicker on my waiver wire that plays against the team that gives up the most fantasy points to Kickers and have been getting some decent points out of them. I take into account how well they have been doing, weather etc if there are a few to choose from.

Reed vs Cin (6 pts)
J. Brown vs StL (15 pts)
Dawson vs Mia (11 pts)

Avg so far (10.6 pts)

Anyone use this strategy and with what success? Something similar to what Plindsey does with weekly def's would be interesting. Comparing kicker strength with matchup and weather. I always hear a kicker is a kicker, but I stuck with one early in the year and would end up with 3 and 4 point games a lot.
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Re: Playing Kicker Matchups?

Postby BrewCrew6 » Wed Oct 31, 2007 10:25 am

Rather than see who is allowing the most fantasy points to kickers, I find a team that is playing a weak defense and try to plug in one of those kickers. Last week, I plugged in Jeff Reed vs CIN.
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Re: Playing Kicker Matchups?

Postby latraffic » Wed Oct 31, 2007 2:09 pm

I don't just do this for kickers. I play the matchups on a few positions. It's how i make the best use of my bench space each season. I generally grab a K, Def, and Flex player very low in the draft (or even immediately after the draft) who I think has potential. Then if they don't fair well, I go to the matchup strategy. I've historically had good results with this.
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Re: Playing Kicker Matchups?

Postby eagle0588 » Wed Oct 31, 2007 8:35 pm

i try to pick a kicker on a very good offense, or at least an offense that could get within the 30 yards of goal pretty easily. That way you're almost always guaranteed a FG
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Re: Playing Kicker Matchups?

Postby BigBadBrawler » Sat Nov 03, 2007 5:29 pm

Historically, teams that win more games post far superior kicking stats, so if I'm playing match-ups (which I usually am, except this year I have Gostkowski, so I've just been using him week in and week out...) then I just look for the team most likely to win their game (taking into account the offense and the opposing team's defense of course). Victories = Kicking Stats...
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Re: Playing Kicker Matchups?

Postby robotninja » Mon Nov 05, 2007 1:16 pm

Agree with Victories=kicking stats this year I started with Kaeding (SD) and was initially stoked because of SD last season. Well we all know how they started this year and I dropped Kaeding about week 3 and picked up Folk (DAL) and Folk has averaged 7-8 pts per game which I think is good enough for kicker production.
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Re: Playing Kicker Matchups?

Postby comm1680 » Tue Nov 13, 2007 9:55 am

Anyone do this strategy this week? I picked up Mare, which didn't work out so well...
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Re: Playing Kicker Matchups?

Postby Humpback » Tue Nov 13, 2007 10:57 am

IMO, kickers are by far the toughest position to predict from week to week (good thing it usually doesn't matter ;-D ). Sometimes, the kicker on a crappy offense or on one facing a very good D is a great play, since they'll tend to get stopped in the red zone. Other times, it's the kickers on a great offense or playing a crappy defense that works out best. I don't bother playing match-ups- the only time I switch kickers is if (like robotninja said) is if I pick one who I expected to be on a good offense, and it doesn't turn out that way.
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Re: Playing Kicker Matchups?

Postby milo » Tue Nov 13, 2007 12:04 pm

It worked in one league with Reed vs CLE (11 pts, above average). Hanson was my best option against ARI and it didnt work out with 3 pts. It is a crap shoot live everyone is saying, but overall I have been having above average results playing the matchup instead of holding onto 1 kicker. Thinking of using Akers vs MIA this week.
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Re: Playing Kicker Matchups?

Postby mattb47 » Tue Nov 13, 2007 1:55 pm

I played around with a formula to statistically look at the best kickers and matchups to play every week last year and it actually worked pretty well. There normally isn't a huge difference score wise in kickers and there are always kickers that randomly do very well or very poorly but for the most part it's pretty accurate. I'll post the rankings I came up with and also the 10 best and worst matchups I've calculated for kickers to be playing against.

These rankings are based on many different aspects. I Incorporated individual stats (including giving more points for longer FGs and accuracy), team offense stats including opportunities and redzone efficiency, and team defense including opportunities and redzone efficiency.

Here they are for week 11 if anyone is interested:

1 Phil Dawson 92.452
2 Matt Stover 90.501
3 Jeff Wilkins 86.361
4 David Akers 86.325
5 Olindo Mare 85.714
6 Adam Vinatieri 83.618
7 Neil Rackers 82.273
8 Josh Brown 81.733
9 Kris Brown 81.178
10 Joe Nedney 80.927
11 Rob Bironas 80.661
12 Jeff Reed 80.263
13 Jay Feely 78.508
14 Mason Crosby 77.576
15 Shayne Graham 77.512
16 Sebastian Janikowski 76.108
17 Matt Bryant 74.092
18 Ryan Longwell 65.112
19 Shaun Suisham 64.471
20 Robbie Gould 62.793
21 Morten Andersen 61.310
22 John Kasay 60.728
23 Nick Folk 59.818
24 Nate Kaeding 58.221
25 Stephen Gostkowski 57.147
26 Jason Elam 56.333
27 Jason Hanson 54.720
28 Lawrence Tynes 48.668
29 Rian Lindell 47.617
30 John Carney 44.082
31 Dave Rayner 42.890
32 Mike Nugent 41.873

And here are the best 10 and worst 10 matchups:

Best 10 matchups for kickers:
1. Baltimore
2. Houston
3. Cleveland
4. Miami
5. San Francisco
6. Kansas City
7. St. Louis
8. Cincinnati
9. New York Jets
10. Philadelphia

Worst 10 matchups for kickers:
1. Indianapolis
2. Pittsburgh
3. New England
4. Detroit
5. San Diego
6. New York Giants
7. Tennessee
8. Washington
9. Tampa Bay
10. Green Bay
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