Playing Kicker Matchups?

[mattb47]

Here are the formula results for this week's games:

1 Stephen Gostkowski 99.597
2 Rob Bironas 98.595
3 Jason Hanson 96.736
4 Neil Rackers 91.803
5 Morten Andersen 89.222
6 Lawrence Tynes 88.172
7 Sebastian Janikowski 86.236
8 Jay Feely 85.595
9 Matt Bryant 85.576
10 Nate Kaeding 85.080
11 Mike Nugent 82.144
12 John Kasay 81.781
13 Jeff Reed 81.302
14 Phil Dawson 80.918
15 Josh Brown 80.616
16 Jeff Wilkins 79.209
17 Shaun Suisham 79.090
18 Mason Crosby 78.859
19 Nick Folk 76.698
20 Joe Nedney 75.220
21 Jason Elam 72.407
22 Kris Brown 70.099
23 David Akers 66.653
24 Robbie Gould 65.499
25 Rian Lindell 65.358
26 Ryan Longwell 62.448
27 Adam Vinatieri 62.134
28 Shayne Graham 57.955
29 Matt Stover 57.405
30 Olindo Mare 56.833
31 Josh Scobee 54.312
32 Dave Rayner 51.367


Here are also the updated statistics for the best and worst matchups:

Best Matchups:
1. Baltimore
2. Cleveland
3. Houston
4. Minnesota
5. New York Jets
6. St. Louis
7. Kansas City
8. Chicago
9. New Orleans
10. San Francisco

Worst Matchups (1 being worst):
1. Indianapolis
2. New England
3. San Diego
4. Pittsburgh
5. New York Giants
6. Tampa Bay
7. Detroit
8. Jacksonville
9. Tennessee
10. Seattle

With this being the 2nd week this year of true data being put out with my rankings, i'll post back on how things went again after this week.

[Humpback]

This actually wasn't the true list....this list was based purely on matchups from stats from the week before (not including any other part of my formula) since stats weren't updated in time for me to get it out before i left for thanksgiving so i didn't necessarily anticipate these were going to be all that accurate. I wasn't actually ever able to get all the numbers plugged in for last week because by the time I got back from thanksgiving, the stats were already updated for the teams that had played on Thursday and Sunday.

I made it pretty clear that this wasn't my actual formula when I posted this....I just wanted to give people something to work with since I couldn't get it out and even if the results would have turned out poorly this week....there's NO formula (not even Plindsey's defensive formula) that doesn't have weeks where random things occur that are out of the ordinary. Looking back from last year when I was working on this when I've actually been able to get the information in time to make it usable, the turnout has been quite good on a regular basis.

No worries, I just don't see much benefit in it, that's all. Kickers are just too hard to predict from week to week, and even if you get it right one week, the difference isn't too big. To go through a lot of analysis, drop a kicker and pick up another, etc., then have it have a good chance at backfiring, is a waste of time.

Compare your list to the Cafe rankings for this week- they have Dawson #1, you have him #14. They have Longwell #2, you have him #26. They have Folk #3, you have him #19. You have Andersen #5, they have him second to last. Etc, etc, etc. The bottom line is, there are too many variables that are nearly impossible to predict with much accuracy that go into determining how a kicker is going to perform each week. IMO, you're better off focusing your efforts on other positional decisions, and just roll with a kicker. Just my $.02. BTW, I agree with the defensive thing- besides a few obvious ones each week, they are the second hardest position to predict from week to week IMO.

[mattb47]

This actually wasn't the true list....this list was based purely on matchups from stats from the week before (not including any other part of my formula) since stats weren't updated in time for me to get it out before i left for thanksgiving so i didn't necessarily anticipate these were going to be all that accurate. I wasn't actually ever able to get all the numbers plugged in for last week because by the time I got back from thanksgiving, the stats were already updated for the teams that had played on Thursday and Sunday.

I made it pretty clear that this wasn't my actual formula when I posted this....I just wanted to give people something to work with since I couldn't get it out and even if the results would have turned out poorly this week....there's NO formula (not even Plindsey's defensive formula) that doesn't have weeks where random things occur that are out of the ordinary. Looking back from last year when I was working on this when I've actually been able to get the information in time to make it usable, the turnout has been quite good on a regular basis.

No worries, I just don't see much benefit in it, that's all. Kickers are just too hard to predict from week to week, and even if you get it right one week, the difference isn't too big. To go through a lot of analysis, drop a kicker and pick up another, etc., then have it have a good chance at backfiring, is a waste of time.

Compare your list to the Cafe rankings for this week- they have Dawson #1, you have him #14. They have Longwell #2, you have him #26. They have Folk #3, you have him #19. You have Andersen #5, they have him second to last. Etc, etc, etc. The bottom line is, there are too many variables that are nearly impossible to predict with much accuracy that go into determining how a kicker is going to perform each week. IMO, you're better off focusing your efforts on other positional decisions, and just roll with a kicker. Just my $.02. BTW, I agree with the defensive thing- besides a few obvious ones each week, they are the second hardest position to predict from week to week IMO.

I can understand what you're saying, but like I said generally from week to week I'm able to grab a pretty good kicker who gets me solid production by using the matchups and such I generate statistically. Some teams just plain give up more opportunities to kickers than other teams pretty consistently and while you must always take other circumstances into account, I've found that you can reasonably play good matchups on a weekly basis and do pretty well. In the league I'm in with my friends that I'm using this to play a different kicker every week (to test it's accuracy in a practical sense), I've got easily the most average kicker points from week to week just playing matchups.

And I'm not too worried about the discrepancies between my rankings and other rankings. Longwell is low on my rankings because Detroit quite frankly just doesn't give up many FGs. They've given up only 8 FGs in the redzone (out of 28 opportunities) and just 12 FGs overall and Longwell doesn't really attempt very many FGs. He's only attempted 18 FGs this year (25th most attempts in NFL) and he's only made 15 (24th in NFL). As for Folk, same sort of deal with the Green Bay defense being pretty good against allowing FGs with only 8 redzone FGs and Folk has only attempted 20 FGs this year (23rd). I have Anderson high because he's playing STL who has given up 21 FGs this year (8th most in NFL) and while this isn't a part of the formula, you've got to like him kicking in a dome this week.

I'm not trying to say that my rankings will always be good or that they're extremely extremely accurate, but just giving you some examples of how the formula can actually be beneficial when looking at matchups. Just thinkings normally, you wouldn't think that Detroit gives up so few FGs, but looking at the numbers you can see that it's just not that great of a matchup.

[Humpback]

I'm not saying that your rankings are worse than the Cafe's or anything, I was just making a point that there will be more variations in kicker rankings than any other position from week to week. If you check out other rankings, they'll be just as varied. But hey, if it works for you, more power to you.

[JasonSeahorn]

a lot of good work done here, more than i would want to think about for a kicker...i just get a kicker on a high powered offense, or stalling offense, and stick with them. works good enough for me.

[MccM]

The past 3 weeks I have been grabbing the kicker on my waiver wire that plays against the team that gives up the most fantasy points to Kickers and have been getting some decent points out of them. I take into account how well they have been doing, weather etc if there are a few to choose from.

Where do you find these stats?

[Humpback]

Here are the formula results for this week's games:

1 Stephen Gostkowski 99.597
2 Rob Bironas 98.595
3 Jason Hanson 96.736
4 Neil Rackers 91.803
5 Morten Andersen 89.222
6 Lawrence Tynes 88.172
7 Sebastian Janikowski 86.236
8 Jay Feely 85.595
9 Matt Bryant 85.576
10 Nate Kaeding 85.080
11 Mike Nugent 82.144
12 John Kasay 81.781
13 Jeff Reed 81.302
14 Phil Dawson 80.918
15 Josh Brown 80.616
16 Jeff Wilkins 79.209
17 Shaun Suisham 79.090
18 Mason Crosby 78.859
19 Nick Folk 76.698
20 Joe Nedney 75.220
21 Jason Elam 72.407
22 Kris Brown 70.099
23 David Akers 66.653
24 Robbie Gould 65.499
25 Rian Lindell 65.358
26 Ryan Longwell 62.448
27 Adam Vinatieri 62.134
28 Shayne Graham 57.955
29 Matt Stover 57.405
30 Olindo Mare 56.833
31 Josh Scobee 54.312
32 Dave Rayner 51.367


Here are also the updated statistics for the best and worst matchups:

Best Matchups:
1. Baltimore
2. Cleveland
3. Houston
4. Minnesota
5. New York Jets
6. St. Louis
7. Kansas City
8. Chicago
9. New Orleans
10. San Francisco

Worst Matchups (1 being worst):
1. Indianapolis
2. New England
3. San Diego
4. Pittsburgh
5. New York Giants
6. Tampa Bay
7. Detroit
8. Jacksonville
9. Tennessee
10. Seattle

With this being the 2nd week this year of true data being put out with my rankings, i'll post back on how things went again after this week.

I promise, I won't do this again, but the results were pretty bad this week.

Your #1 was #9, your #2 and #3 were two of the worst, #5 and #6 were horrible too, the actual #2 was your #25, the actual #3 was your #19, etc. There were more top 10 scoring kickers ranked in your bottom 10 than your top 10.

Not meant to put this down at all, but I just don't see it being beneficial or worth the effort when you look at the results. Kickers are just way too unpredictable from week to week IMO.

[peterparker]

Kickers are just way too unpredictable from week to week IMO.

Agreed, I have never seen anyone be successful with that strategy. I just get a decent kicker late in the draft and then watch the WW to see what undrafted kickers do well. This year I was fortunate enough to get Mason Crosby after week 4, in a smaller league however. I suppose in a bigger league with astute players you may be forced to play matchups.