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Disproving the cold-weather theory

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Disproving the cold-weather theory

Postby The Lung » Thu Nov 08, 2007 5:15 pm

A surprisingly good analysis from ESPN.

From: http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=numbersnfl1107

Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Playing with the numbers: Disproving a cold-weather theory
By Ken Daube
Special to ESPN.com

Every year I get similar e-mails right about now from owners who are sitting 5-4 or 4-5 and are trying to figure out how to ensure their team gets to the playoffs. Their e-mails usually begin like this: "With the colder weather now upon us, teams obviously will shift their focus to the running game. Because of this, do you think it's wise for me to trade (insert name of elite wide receiver and fringe No. 2/flex running back here) for (solid No. 2 running back and No. 3 fantasy receiver)?"

It makes me want to scream. First, you never trade two players from your starting lineup for two new starting lineup players if the latter do not score more points (or project to score more points) than the former. Never ever. Second, the much-ballyhooed theory that teams run significantly more during the latter part of the season because it's cold is garbage. As in, it doesn't happen. Take a look at the following chart, which illustrates by week the percentage of NFL rushing yardage to total NFL offense over the past 10 years.

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Weekly percentage of total yards gained by rushing (1997-2006)

OK, if you want to be completely technical, Weeks 15, 16 and 17 are among the highest weeks, and Weeks 1 and 2 are the two lowest. However, the difference between the highest week (16) and the lowest week (1) is only nine yards for the average NFL team. When you consider that most teams employ an 80/20 split for the starting running back and his backup, you are now looking at an average of about a seven-yard differential for your fantasy player.

As I write this, I imagine that many a cynical reader is getting ready to call me an idiot, probably in ESPN Conversation (Beta!) below, because a global look like this shouldn't be used. Instead, I should be looking at only the franchises in cold-weather cities because those are the teams that would be most affected. First, I'll state that those cynics are wrong because a majority of the teams would be affected by weather based solely on geography. Second, I actually did the statistics for each NFL team and broke the stats into four-week blocks to show that there is no direct correlation of rushing yardage to cold temperatures and geography. Those results are shown here:

Percentage of Rushing Yardage to Team's Offense
Team Weeks 1 - 4 Weeks 5 - 8 Weeks 9 - 12 Weeks 13 - 16 Total
Arizona Cardinals 28.32 30.32 28.33 27.97 28.46
Atlanta Falcons 40.02 35.25 41.31 39.80 39.14
Baltimore Ravens 36.88 35.33 37.54 36.23 36.68
Buffalo Bills 32.22 33.81 36.50 36.06 34.35
Carolina Panthers 33.08 29.86 31.57 30.68 31.63
Chicago Bears 32.49 35.88 34.63 35.34 34.84
Cincinnati Bengals 32.15 37.14 34.70 36.86 34.97
Cleveland Browns 29.01 31.13 29.08 31.25 30.83
Dallas Cowboys 34.58 35.82 38.26 36.79 35.99
Denver Broncos 39.59 36.39 38.21 39.48 38.60
Detroit Lions 29.65 33.53 30.29 34.11 31.71
Green Bay Packers 28.07 28.95 29.34 31.26 29.66
Houston Texans 33.77 32.72 34.38 44.20 36.20
Indianapolis Colts 27.70 28.24 29.67 28.11 28.67
Jacksonville Jaguars 33.35 34.94 37.52 40.60 36.66
Kansas City Chiefs 37.05 33.64 31.35 36.81 34.78
Miami Dolphins 35.78 30.90 35.91 31.31 33.27
Minnesota Vikings 30.89 33.19 31.65 34.98 32.75
New England Patriots 28.92 29.76 28.76 33.42 30.37
New Orleans Saints 32.34 35.24 29.40 31.05 31.75
New York Giants 31.90 35.87 36.34 35.90 35.45
New York Jets 29.44 38.96 36.71 31.45 33.96
Oakland Raiders 31.65 32.49 29.37 33.13 31.96
Philadelphia Eagles 31.43 34.72 37.36 32.59 33.71
Pittsburgh Steelers 40.33 42.65 38.88 39.27 40.64
San Diego Chargers 40.02 31.31 32.49 32.75 34.40
San Francisco 49ers 35.92 37.14 38.71 37.64 37.26
Seattle Seahawks 33.23 34.25 35.97 32.60 33.63
St. Louis Rams 25.87 31.24 24.19 30.08 28.11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34.33 33.81 34.22 36.04 35.06
Tennessee Titans 28.92 37.99 38.32 36.32 35.56
Washington Redskins 33.61 35.53 37.14 35.84 35.75
NFL Totals 32.82 34.07 33.91 34.55 33.92

The largest variation versus a team's season average within any four-week period over the second half of the season is owned by the Houston Texans, with plus-8 percent during weeks 13 through 16. Not only is Houston's average daily high in December is about 66 degrees Fahrenheit, but they also play in a retractable roof stadium.

The Jaguars post the second-highest variation at plus-4 percent. Daily high temperature in Jacksonville during December: 67 degrees Fahrenheit.

The standard deviation for all the four-week groupings is 3.7 percent. The Jaguars and Texans are the only teams that display a four-week grouping during the second half of the season with a variance from their season average greater than that margin.

The Giants and Jets play their home games in the same stadium. During weeks 1316, the Jets differential is minus-3 percent to their season average, and the Giants are plus-1 percent. The Raiders and 49ers play a mere miles from each other in the Bay Area, but during weeks 912 the Raiders' run split has dropped three percent while the 49ers increase two percent.

If you still believe that temperature has a significant impact on a team's offensive philosophy, then feel free to trade Greg Jennings for Cedric Benson. Pay no attention to the fact that Jennings has outscored Benson on average by 6 points per game. After all, it gets cold in Chicago in December!
(~);}

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(~);}
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Re: Disproving the cold-weather theory

Postby LS2throwed » Thu Nov 08, 2007 5:26 pm

I read that earlier this morning...It didnt even take all that to lead me to believe it regardless, and even if I did, im not going to the point to where im trading players for dome players or trying to get rbs who play in cold weather, thats too much thinking involved...and as unpredictable as fantasy football is it would be a big waste of time to even try to do it
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Re: Disproving the cold-weather theory

Postby ivesaidway2much » Fri Nov 09, 2007 10:50 am

I don't get it. What did he disprove? He even admitted that his own stats show that teams actually do run more later in the year.
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Re: Disproving the cold-weather theory

Postby JasonSeahorn » Fri Nov 09, 2007 2:41 pm

ivesaidway2much wrote:I don't get it. What did he disprove? He even admitted that his own stats show that teams actually do run more later in the year.


based on the stats, a starting running back will get 7 more rush yards a game. he is insinuating you should not trade your star receiver for a mediocre starting running back just because "teams run more later in the season." Instead, just get the best people you can, or at least good players that have excellent playoff schedules. Cleveland has a great playoff schedule iirc.
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Re: Disproving the cold-weather theory

Postby ivesaidway2much » Fri Nov 09, 2007 3:38 pm

JasonSeahorn wrote:
ivesaidway2much wrote:I don't get it. What did he disprove? He even admitted that his own stats show that teams actually do run more later in the year.


based on the stats, a starting running back will get 7 more rush yards a game. he is insinuating you should not trade your star receiver for a mediocre starting running back just because "teams run more later in the season." Instead, just get the best people you can, or at least good players that have excellent playoff schedules. Cleveland has a great playoff schedule iirc.
And cold weather teams run more in December. I'll take and extra 7-10 yards per game from Lynch or Jacobs over Braylon Edwards any day.
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Re: Disproving the cold-weather theory

Postby Felix the Cat » Fri Nov 09, 2007 6:46 pm

An extra 7 yards isn't even half a point in Yahoo default scoring...
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Re: Disproving the cold-weather theory

Postby Where's Ryan Leaf? » Fri Nov 09, 2007 6:55 pm

The author seems to me, to be disproving the wrong theory. Sure, maybe rushing yards may not increase as much as originally thought, but the theory is that teams run the ball more. Not that they gain a ton more of yardage, but that they give their running backs the ball more. He should have looked at total offensive plays earlier versus later in the season, not percentage of yards. I'd also like to see a comparison of redzone plays called. I'm curious if teams, in the later part of the season, run the ball more in the redzone than they throw (hoping to avoid turnovers caused by poor conditions). If RBs are getting the ball more in the redzone (or just getting more total touches), they have a better chance to score.

Now, I'm not saying he's wrong, just that I think he looked at the wrong data. Having said that, I'm off to try to trade my WR1 for Ahman Green. ;-D
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Re: Disproving the cold-weather theory

Postby matmat » Mon Nov 12, 2007 12:26 pm

Where's Ryan Leaf? wrote:The author seems to me, to be disproving the wrong theory. Sure, maybe rushing yards may not increase as much as originally thought, but the theory is that teams run the ball more. Not that they gain a ton more of yardage, but that they give their running backs the ball more. He should have looked at total offensive plays earlier versus later in the season, not percentage of yards. I'd also like to see a comparison of redzone plays called. I'm curious if teams, in the later part of the season, run the ball more in the redzone than they throw (hoping to avoid turnovers caused by poor conditions). If RBs are getting the ball more in the redzone (or just getting more total touches), they have a better chance to score.


some good points, some not so good points.

i think most FF leagues are yardage based. And so the % of total yards gained via the different methods is the figure of merit.
as for running vs. throwing in poor conditions, the defensive backs getting turned every which way by receivers are at a bigger disadvantage when it comes to loose footing than,say, the D lineman trying to get their hands on a RB.
that said, it might be interesting to see the breakdown as a function of windspeed =)
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