emt wrote:I see a lot of threads on particular players, but not overarching fantasy concepts. I'm looking straight at Week 16, my league's playoff finals.
If I could get my hands on a huge up-to-date player/team stats database, I'd research this some on my own. But what kind of teams start putting up bigger points in the late season, and which ones will slack off? Most important, how big is that kind of change around Week 16?
For example, how much less points will New England stars get due their clear spot in the playoffs? Are kickers on good teams suddenly worth more since the offense won't risk stretching themselves for TDs?
What do you look at most differently when you're trying to nab players for the end of the regular season?
An ideal situation when you can find it is a lesser team playing a division rival who's resting starters. Let's say that in the week 16 Green Bay/Chicago matchup that Green Bay's playoff position can't get any better, so they rest Favre and take it easy on their other starters. Chicago would probably take that opportunity to lay on the points.
Other things to look for (and this stuff is difficult to gauge until the final weeks approach) are which coaches need wins to try and preserve their jobs, and which players may become unrestricted free agents in 2008 and want to get noticed in a big way. Players on teams that can't do much but ruin the value of their draft position probably won't perform. On the other hand, the teams that play against them will be poised to put up easy numbers. Tennessee players vs. the downtrodden, on the road Jets look like a lock for mega points. If New England is still chasing the perfect season at that point, I can't see Miami putting up much of a struggle in the cold.
For kickers I'd look for a game where the opponents are fairly well matched, and the game is in warm weather or a dome. Blowouts mean touchdowns and 1 pt instead of 3+. And you really don't want your kicking game to rely on some 90-lb weakling who's shivering to death in some place like New England.