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Late-end season strategy

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Late-end season strategy

Postby emt » Tue Nov 13, 2007 1:15 am

I see a lot of threads on particular players, but not overarching fantasy concepts. I'm looking straight at Week 16, my league's playoff finals.

If I could get my hands on a huge up-to-date player/team stats database, I'd research this some on my own. But what kind of teams start putting up bigger points in the late season, and which ones will slack off? Most important, how big is that kind of change around Week 16?

For example, how much less points will New England stars get due their clear spot in the playoffs? Are kickers on good teams suddenly worth more since the offense won't risk stretching themselves for TDs?

What do you look at most differently when you're trying to nab players for the end of the regular season?
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Re: Late-end season strategy

Postby DraftDodger » Tue Nov 13, 2007 1:47 am

emt wrote:I see a lot of threads on particular players, but not overarching fantasy concepts. I'm looking straight at Week 16, my league's playoff finals.

If I could get my hands on a huge up-to-date player/team stats database, I'd research this some on my own. But what kind of teams start putting up bigger points in the late season, and which ones will slack off? Most important, how big is that kind of change around Week 16?

For example, how much less points will New England stars get due their clear spot in the playoffs? Are kickers on good teams suddenly worth more since the offense won't risk stretching themselves for TDs?

What do you look at most differently when you're trying to nab players for the end of the regular season?


An ideal situation when you can find it is a lesser team playing a division rival who's resting starters. Let's say that in the week 16 Green Bay/Chicago matchup that Green Bay's playoff position can't get any better, so they rest Favre and take it easy on their other starters. Chicago would probably take that opportunity to lay on the points.

Other things to look for (and this stuff is difficult to gauge until the final weeks approach) are which coaches need wins to try and preserve their jobs, and which players may become unrestricted free agents in 2008 and want to get noticed in a big way. Players on teams that can't do much but ruin the value of their draft position probably won't perform. On the other hand, the teams that play against them will be poised to put up easy numbers. Tennessee players vs. the downtrodden, on the road Jets look like a lock for mega points. If New England is still chasing the perfect season at that point, I can't see Miami putting up much of a struggle in the cold.

For kickers I'd look for a game where the opponents are fairly well matched, and the game is in warm weather or a dome. Blowouts mean touchdowns and 1 pt instead of 3+. And you really don't want your kicking game to rely on some 90-lb weakling who's shivering to death in some place like New England.
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Re: Late-end season strategy

Postby Flyn high again » Tue Nov 13, 2007 9:42 am

Look for players from the Patriots. They are on a mission. Also look for good teams who are in division battles. They will need to win and pour points on for potential tie breakers. You can't really predict teams sitting players or bad teams having good weeks. I go with the odds and try to load up with good players from good teams. It's obvious but it's a proven method of winning more than your share of games. Don't forget about weeks fourteen and fifteen or you might not make it to week sixteen...

Re. the post above, the Packers will not sit people when they play Chicago. Even if they win the Superbowl, their season won't be successful if they lose to Chicago twice. Green Bay believes in the Chicago/GB rivalry and wants to win that game.
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Re: Late-end season strategy

Postby FatFoot » Tue Nov 13, 2007 11:59 am

Flyn high again wrote:Re. the post above, the Packers will not sit people when they play Chicago. Even if they win the Superbowl, their season won't be successful if they lose to Chicago twice. Green Bay believes in the Chicago/GB rivalry and wants to win that game.


This can't be understated. Favre will play in any game vs. Chicago. First off, Favre doesn't sit for games. Second, to some of the fans in the midwest, this is like a mini superbowl, twice a year. For the fans, these are important games. To the Pack, that matters. The team is owned by the fans, literally. To the Bears it matters less (because ownership SUCKS in Chicago.) But Chicago will be playing hard because they want to pretend that a win will make us forget about the season they're having.
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Re: Late-end season strategy

Postby DraftDodger » Tue Nov 13, 2007 12:13 pm

Is there something you guys don't understand about the word example? Using player and team names makes it easier to understand than saying Team A and Quarterback X. I don't know that any starters will be sitting out that week unless they're injured; I'm just offering a situation to look for.

If you see the situation, exploit it. Sorry I dissed your Maddenesque man-love for Favre! :~(
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Re: Late-end season strategy

Postby FatFoot » Tue Nov 13, 2007 12:21 pm

Totally uncool.

So sorry not to agree with your opinion.

This is a discussion forum. Time to get over it when the discussion doesn't go as you dictate.
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Re: Late-end season strategy

Postby Flyn high again » Tue Nov 13, 2007 2:08 pm

DraftDodger wrote:Is there something you guys don't understand about the word example? Using player and team names makes it easier to understand than saying Team A and Quarterback X. I don't know that any starters will be sitting out that week unless they're injured; I'm just offering a situation to look for.

If you see the situation, exploit it. Sorry I dissed your Maddenesque man-love for Favre! :~(


I'm sure both Fat Foot and I, as Bears fans, would love to see Favre on our team or barring that, up at the North Pole throwing fish to the seals.
Go Bears!
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Re: Late-end season strategy

Postby DraftDodger » Tue Nov 13, 2007 3:36 pm

FatFoot wrote:Totally uncool.

So sorry not to agree with your opinion.

This is a discussion forum. Time to get over it when the discussion doesn't go as you dictate.


You're not disagreeing with my opinion; you're trying to give me one. I never said that Favre would sit out. When you argue as though I've said something that I haven't, I'm within my rights to make fun of your man-love for Favre.
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Re: Late-end season strategy

Postby FatFoot » Tue Nov 13, 2007 3:38 pm

Flyn high again wrote:
DraftDodger wrote:Is there something you guys don't understand about the word example? Using player and team names makes it easier to understand than saying Team A and Quarterback X. I don't know that any starters will be sitting out that week unless they're injured; I'm just offering a situation to look for.

If you see the situation, exploit it. Sorry I dissed your Maddenesque man-love for Favre! :~(


I'm sure both Fat Foot and I, as Bears fans, would love to see Favre on our team or barring that, up at the North Pole throwing fish to the seals.


Ding Ding Ding!!!
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