Third Year WRs for 2008

[Kilroy]

What would Marshall's numbers have been if Walker would not have been injured and Henry doesn't go into a funk with all of his issues?

Javon gets his bonus, Denver keeps a solid one-two punch for years to come. However, Marshall's Targets go down significantly, his yards go down, his receptions go gown, his TD's are in question(more or less, maybe he gets better looks).

Here's what I think happens if Walker and Henry don't get hurt or stupid. Cutler maintains Walker as his goto guy, Denver doesn't abandon the run as much and Marshall has a Holmes type of season.

We are talking the same kind of numbers for Holmes if Ward gets hurt in Pitt.

I'm not falling into the trap of simply looking at raw stats. I remember Burleson's season 2 when Moss was hurt a ton and all of Minny Fans had high hopes when Burly became the #1 when Moss was dealt for the start of Burleson's 3rd year. Burleson's season 2 stats were not as good as Marshalls, however, Burleson had Moss for more games than Marshall had with Walker.

Now that it looks like Javon is on his way out, Marshall will start his first season as the number 1. There isn't a Free Agent out there that is better than Marshall. Knowing Marshall will definitely be the #1 now will give him more value. Am I ready to take him over Colston? Nope, but he has gained a lot.

If Walker hadn't gotten hurt and if Henry hadn't tailed off who knows? If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle.



Thing is, both those things did happen, and now it looks like Walker's on his way out and Marshall is clearly entrenched as the #1 WR in Denver.

So far as comparing Marshall to Burleson? Apples and Oranges. The two aren't even close talent-wise.

[steelerfan513]

One important thing to note: Javon Walker was not himself for the vast majority of 2007, but it isn't like they signed some schlep from off the streets to be the #2 guy. Brandon Stokley actually did a decent job filling in; after Denver's bye, he had 28 receptions for 457 yards and 4 TDs in 8 games. Sure, he's no as good as Javon Walker at full strength, but he was an adequate target, and Cutler did throw it to him a fair amount.

Plus, Javon Walker probably won't be an issue in a few weeks. The only possible is that Denver may go after an outside receiver because Stokley is better suited to be in the slot, but that probably won't make a huge impact.

[The Lung]

From: http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/nfl/news;_ylt=AlLAfD4Y7KfZwVn5VpL5CYpNC5kB?slug=fantguru-receiverreport_072208

Receiver Report: Young hands on deck
By John Hansen
FantasyGuru.com
July 22, 2008

Veteran fantasy players know all about the beloved "Third-Year Receiver" theory. I'll admit it's one of the better doctrines that fantasy geeks have come up with, and it certainly was working last year for Braylon Edwards and Roddy White (although not so much with Mike "Fridge-on-his-back" Williams).

On the other hand, I could contend that Edwards would have been great in 2006 if he had been healthy and had a real quarterback, and that White's emergence was a classic case of addition by subtraction, the subtraction being Michael Vick, whose accuracy was just a little better than my Mom's.

I can and will also contend that the second year can be just as mystical and magical for NFL receivers, and you'll find no better example than the seasons logged in by pass-catchers such as Greg Jennings, Santonio Holmes, Brandon Marshall, Owen Daniels, and Tony Scheffler in 2007. Luckily, I started including second-year receivers in this article several years ago, and last year's version of this article had extensive overviews of those five players.

So thanks to breakout seasons for those players, there's not much left in terms of the third-year receivers who may be poised to break out, so the real meat and potatoes of this article can be found in the second-year section. But there are still a few interesting players who have yet to reach their potential and are entering the seemingly magical third season, so take note of them and don't blow off the top section of this article.

continued...

[LS2throwed]

Most of these guys have broken out already, my 3rd year WR to look for to break out is Chad Jackson...I think he is looking at a season towards 700 yds, 5 TD's with the potential for more...Not drawing much interest at this point but its all about jumping on these guys before they explode, he is going to beat Gaffney out, he is already getting starters reps with Welker on the PUP right now, and the Pats spread offense is perfect for his skill set(very similiar to the scheme in Florida)...He's probably my sleeper of the year candidate, wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he posted 1000 yds.


Another guy I like is Demetrius Williams, Flacco can really sling it, but this guy just has to stay healthy and on the field...Great size and speed combo, he has some #1 WR potential and he could really fly under the radar as a guy to help your fantasy team down the line.

[JasonSeahorn]

I don't think this year is the year for Chad Jackson's breakout. He didn't do too much in his rookie year, he got 3 TDs with 152 yards, and he was only getting 1 or 2 receptions each game. Gaffney disappeared in some games but he also had a bunch of good games last year too, Jackson is going to have to show a lot in order for him to be start ahead of Gaffney.

Brady does spread the ball but unless he matches his stats from last year, it won't be enough to make Jackson fantasy relevant unless their WR corps get hit by injuries. The only way I see Jackson making an impact is as a spot starter versus teams with weak secondary or tertiary defensive backs, in a deep threat role that Stallworth filled in last year; the best I see for Jackson is having a couple big games with a 3 catch, 100 yard and a TD performance. Brady would trust Moss, Welker, Gaffney, Ben Watson and Kevin Faulk before he trusts Jackson.

And for personal opinion, I was not impressed by anything Jackson showed when he was on the field. He looked like a possible big-play threat guy who would only be a WR3 or WR4 for teams. That was his rookie year since last year he basically sat out the whole time, but I don't think this year is when he breaks out.

[Kensat30]

I rank them:

Colston - top10 player, go with what works
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Holmes - poised to explode with Ward aging and Big Ben slinging in the new Pitt offense
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Marshall - million dollar talent, 10 cent brain
Jennings - Aaron Rodgers over Brett Favre? Dunno about that one.
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Hagans - has an outside chance of becoming the #1 in Miami and a decent chance at starting
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Those are my draftables.

[LS2throwed]

I don't think this year is the year for Chad Jackson's breakout. He didn't do too much in his rookie year, he got 3 TDs with 152 yards, and he was only getting 1 or 2 receptions each game. Gaffney disappeared in some games but he also had a bunch of good games last year too, Jackson is going to have to show a lot in order for him to be start ahead of Gaffney.

Brady does spread the ball but unless he matches his stats from last year, it won't be enough to make Jackson fantasy relevant unless their WR corps get hit by injuries. The only way I see Jackson making an impact is as a spot starter versus teams with weak secondary or tertiary defensive backs, in a deep threat role that Stallworth filled in last year; the best I see for Jackson is having a couple big games with a 3 catch, 100 yard and a TD performance. Brady would trust Moss, Welker, Gaffney, Ben Watson and Kevin Faulk before he trusts Jackson.

And for personal opinion, I was not impressed by anything Jackson showed when he was on the field. He looked like a possible big-play threat guy who would only be a WR3 or WR4 for teams. That was his rookie year since last year he basically sat out the whole time, but I don't think this year is when he breaks out.

If he could pull in 3 TD's in his rookie year out of what 13 catches, I certainly don't think 5 is out of the question with the offense as wide open as it is...I don't nessecarily think Brady trust all those guys more, Watson started to drop quite a few balls last year, Faulk is a 3rd down back, he will always get his receptions but he's not a WR or a downfield threat at all so he is irrelevant, and Gaffney will still get his targets, but he doesn't have the speed or athleticism that Jackson has, and Brady throws to the open WR he has proven that over the years...Always has, always will, with 2-3 guys on Moss, Welker running underneath, Jackson will have plenty of freedom to rack up 600+ yds without a problem, he was already starting over Gaffney at the OTA's and I expect that trend to continue into the season...Teams won't let Moss run deep patterns uncontested all year again, Jackson will excell being in the spread again without getting much attention.


Getting away from the stats he looked really good as a rookie, and he has just as much talent as some of the other WR's drafted around him(Holmes, Jennings) he just hasn't had the opportunity to put it all together yet...Last year he was buried on the depth chart and the ACL injury set him back, all reports have been positive so far and I'm fairly confident he will be the starter going into the season.

[JasonSeahorn]

If he could pull in 3 TD's in his rookie year out of what 13 catches, I certainly don't think 5 is out of the question with the offense as wide open as it is...I don't nessecarily think Brady trust all those guys more, Watson started to drop quite a few balls last year, Faulk is a 3rd down back, he will always get his receptions but he's not a WR or a downfield threat at all so he is irrelevant, and Gaffney will still get his targets, but he doesn't have the speed or athleticism that Jackson has, and Brady throws to the open WR he has proven that over the years...Always has, always will, with 2-3 guys on Moss, Welker running underneath, Jackson will have plenty of freedom to rack up 600+ yds without a problem, he was already starting over Gaffney at the OTA's and I expect that trend to continue into the season...Teams won't let Moss run deep patterns uncontested all year again, Jackson will excell being in the spread again without getting much attention.


Getting away from the stats he looked really good as a rookie, and he has just as much talent as some of the other WR's drafted around him(Holmes, Jennings) he just hasn't had the opportunity to put it all together yet...Last year he was buried on the depth chart and the ACL injury set him back, all reports have been positive so far and I'm fairly confident he will be the starter going into the season.

If Jackson is able to win a starting spot then yeah he has a chance to put up numbers; I don't think he'll be a consistent fantasy producer. Since right now they are still in training camp he's a good late round guy to draft as a low-risk, medium-to-high reward. But he has to win that spot first, if he doesn't then I don't expect a lot.

[LoveBoatCaptain]

Jackson is an incredible steal. According to footballguy.com's ADP rankings (which combines 6 different sources), Chad Jackson is getting drafted as the 81st WR. If he wins the starting spot out there, I can GUARANTEE you that he'll put up better than 81st best WR numbers.

[LS2throwed]

This made me believe he had the inside track to the job already:

Chad Jackson saw extensive action with the Patriots' starting offense during Organized Team Activities.
With Wes Welker nursing an injury, Jabar Gaffney slid to the slot and Jackson ran at split end opposite Randy Moss. Jackson got glowing reports and should have every opportunity to overtake Gaffney as a starter in August. Due to his size and speed, Jackson could bring a lot more to the Patriots' offense.

per roto.


I don't see Jackson giving up that outside spot, thats the same spot Gaffney was playing last year numerous times, and it looks like he passed Gaffney as soon as OTA's for that spot...Dig further and all you hear about is how great of an off-season he has had, how he has got a better grasp of the offense, etc etc...Whoever wins that spot shouldn't have a tough time putting up 600 yds, and although Gaffney will play and get looks out of 4 WR sets, Jackson looks like barring injury he will lock that outside spot up and be a consistent option...Like the poster before me just mentioned when you add in his ADP, its an even better look...I was all over him in dynasty leagues, redrafts are a different story obviously but this being his 3rd year I expect him to make a huge splash onto the fantasy scene.