steelerfan513 wrote:I voted Forte, although at this point, it's a crapshoot without knowing where players are going to go. I sincerely doubt that 6 of the top 7 players taken will be running backs, and it will all depend on where the QBs and WRs go.
I think it's important to set these baseline rankings based on talent alone
before the NFL Draft - dynasty/keeper leagues should be based primarily on talent and less about immediate opportunity. Michael Bush was a good late first round pick last year even if the opportunity wasn't there. It was pretty much assumed he would languish behind Jordan, Fargas, and Rhodes for years (and likely still may)
Let's say RaShard Mendenhall or Jonathan Stewart get taken by Baltimore or Cincinnati. (highly unlikely, I know. But for the sake of argument...) They would likely be deep in the pecking order behind Rudi Johnson and Kenny Watson in Cinci, and Willis McGahee and Musa Smith in Baltimore, for possibly years.
Now let's say a RB like Felix Jones, Jamaal Charles or Chris Johnson gets drafted by the Houston Texans or Chicago Bears where they would probably start almost immediately (like Marshawn Lynch in Buffalo last year). I would still go with the former in dynasty league drafts because I firmly believe Mendenhall and Stewart are that much more talented than the latter backs.
In one year re-draft leagues it's a different story. Opportunity can play a bigger role, as I even witnessed Marshawn Lynch drafted ahead of ADP in a few re-draft leagues. While hindsight now is 20/20, considering their situations at the start of the season last year with ADP's injury history and Chester Taylor entrenched as the starter, taking Lynch first wasn't looked upon as a bad move.