The Lung wrote:steelerfan513 wrote:I voted Forte, although at this point, it's a crapshoot without knowing where players are going to go. I sincerely doubt that 6 of the top 7 players taken will be running backs, and it will all depend on where the QBs and WRs go.
I think it's important to set these baseline rankings based on talent alone before the NFL Draft - dynasty/keeper leagues should be based primarily on talent and less about immediate opportunity. Michael Bush was a good late first round pick last year even if the opportunity wasn't there. It was pretty much assumed he would languish behind Jordan, Fargas, and Rhodes for years (and likely still may)
Let's say RaShard Mendenhall or Jonathan Stewart get taken by Baltimore or Cincinnati. (highly unlikely, I know. But for the sake of argument...) They would likely be deep in the pecking order behind Rudi Johnson and Kenny Watson in Cinci, and Willis McGahee and Musa Smith in Baltimore, for possibly years. Now let's say a RB like Felix Jones, Jamaal Charles or Chris Johnson gets drafted by the Houston Texans or Chicago Bears where they would probably start almost immediately (like Marshawn Lynch in Buffalo last year). I would still go with the former in dynasty league drafts because I firmly believe Mendenhall and Stewart are that much more talented than the latter backs.
In one year re-draft leagues it's a different story. Opportunity can play a bigger role, as I even witnessed Marshawn Lynch drafted ahead of ADP in a few re-draft leagues. While hindsight now is 20/20, considering their situations at the start of the season last year with ADP's injury history and Chester Taylor entrenched as the starter, taking Lynch first wasn't looked upon as a bad move.
I just think that at this point, people are going to rank nothing but running backs because they're the most valuable to fantasy football. Don't get me wrong, I think it's good to rank talent as well, but these rankings aren't necessarily doing that; they're ranking the running backs with the best wide receivers or quarterbacks thrown in every once in a while.
And I don't think the talent over situation argument is true in all situations. Case in point: Reggie Bush vs. Joseph Addai a couple years ago. Everyone said to pick Bush over Addai because of talent, and although Bush's lack of success so far is partially attributable to his style of play, Addai's success can be attributed to his situation as the Colts' running back. So if a running back goes to a much, much better situation than another arguable more talented back, I'd take the former.
Additionally, I think the talent over situation argument only applies to the top few picks. Michael Bush, for example, was a fourth round pick, but he went over second round picks like Kenny Irons and Lorenzo Booker because the Raiders had a shakey running back situation, and people assumed he would start within a year or two.