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Maximizing Swing Pick Draft Position

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Maximizing Swing Pick Draft Position

Postby Axl's Army » Fri Feb 29, 2008 6:00 am

Does anyone have some insight on how to successfully maximize the swing pick draft position? Specifically, the last pick of the 1st & all subsequent odd rounds & the first pick in the second & all subsequent even rounds.

I think my strategy with this draft position is going to be to try to always start or by anticipating, be at towards the beginning of Runs that will occur in a draft.

Thoughts? Anyone ever win a league from this position? It seems hard to do, but I think there is also a lot of potential there if one plays his cards right.
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Re: Maximizing Swing Pick Draft Position

Postby onnestabe » Fri Feb 29, 2008 10:02 am

The thing about the swing pick is that you can't do any cute stuff from there. You just have to do your homework and make the best picks possible based on their expected production. If there's a guy you want, don't pass on him thinking he might come back to you, because the chances of that guy making it through almost two more rounds without being picked are slim to none. I don't think there is any real strategy you can employ to get more value out of it. If you had the 10th or 11th pick in a twelve teamer, it might be a different story.

The only time I like being in that spot is in my main keeper league, because the player's keeper value is based on the round they were drafted in, so by changing the order of when I pick guys, I can decide how much they cost in subsequent years.
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Re: Maximizing Swing Pick Draft Position

Postby spodog » Fri Feb 29, 2008 12:44 pm

One thing I've always been leery of in the 12th spot (or whatever spot the swing represents in your size league) is drafting two players at the same position with these two picks.

In rounds 1 and 2, about the only positions you'd consider in most formats doing this would be RB-RB, or possibly WR-WR in an extreme circumstance.

The problem with WR-WR, is that you don't get a shot at your first RB until pick #24, which makes it tough to compete in most leagues unless you get lucky with mid round RB's.

The problem going RB-RB is that you now have loaded up on 2 RB's who are not in the Elite tier, since those are gone, and you'll likely watch the Elite WR and QB's fall from the draft board before your next pick.

Strategies to consider if you end up drafting #12:

1. TRY and trade down from the 1st round to the 2nd round so you effectively end up with 3 picks that are at about 2nd round value. (your pick + a pick you'd get for trading your 1st round to someone + the top pick in the 3rd round)

2. POSSIBLY trade up higher in the 1st round only. Stay in the swing spot for rounds 3/4, 5/6, etc, but trade up into the middle of the 1st round by offering up a something of enough value to someone who has pick 4, 5 or 6, but is "scared" of those picks because they they have the mindset "If I can't get LT, I'd rather pick later in the first round and get an extra pick in round 4". There are guys like this in many leagues.

3. Get an elite QB and best avail RB with the Round 1/2 swing. Think about how easily you could have drafted Brady with pick #12 or #13 in last years draft, at least in most leagues. That would have made a HUGE difference on many teams.

I'm not sure how you put the strategy of "getting ahead of the runs" into practice. (other than drinking Pepto before the draft).

If you have a feeling that a TE run is coming in Round 5, and you draft 2 top TE's at the end of Round 5 and beginning of Round 6, then the entire league picks up RB talent for the next 23 picks, you are not likely going to be pleased with that decision . . . .
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Re: Maximizing Swing Pick Draft Position

Postby Cowboys 4 life » Sat Mar 01, 2008 1:39 pm

This position sucks because you can't get a top 5 RB. Then if you decide to go RB RB they are mediocre make or breaks at best. I think you almost have to go RB WR or RB QB here is your league is QB friendly. The reasoning is at that position you are essentually drafting after a run. At the end of the first most decent RBs are gone. End of RD 3 most of the decent WR's are gone. Then at the end of 5 if you don't have a QB you get a 2nd tier guy.

You can end up with a mediocre player at each position where as a guy drafting 1st gets most likely the top RB, a top 5 WR on the wrap along with another RB that is probably just as good as the 1 or 2 rb's you grabbed. It is like playing from behind the whole draft.

That is why I think you just have to take a gamble with your picks. Take a RB and the top WR in the 1st and 2nd. Then in the next 2 rounds snag another rb and a top 5 QB. I want to come out of every draft with a top 5 guy at nearly every position. With the 12th pick you miss out on a top 5 RB unless you get lucky but you can still get a top 5 WR, QB, TE, D to compensate if you draft well.
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Re: Maximizing Swing Pick Draft Position

Postby SLAMLLC » Sun Mar 02, 2008 10:52 am

I am with you brother this year. Won Championship in my big league last year and have to go 12th in a twelve team league. I really don't know what to do to stay above water looking at how things might go down. Any middle round pick would be "safer" as you might not get so worried about being left out of a run.

Axl, is your league a redraft or do you keep some players. In a complete redraft you could be ok. In a keeper league things get a lot more complicated. I see a few RB that might be great late first round picks in a complete redraft league. In a keeper the pickings get slim I am seriously looking at the rookie RB for a 12th or 13th RB pick. We will know more after the NFL draft and if any will be in a situation where they could be the day 1 starter.

I hate to pick 12th and 13th. You have to be confident and have a plan. You cannot get caught picking "from behind" I almost think you have to give up on one position to come out ok. You have to maybe let the QB's go or maybe the TE's. If you try to pick one of these guys after a run you will blow your whole draft.

Keep this tread active and let me know what your situation is with your league (keeper or redraft) Maybe a couple of you guys can work together to come up with a solid plan.
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Re: Maximizing Swing Pick Draft Position

Postby BigBadBrawler » Sun Mar 02, 2008 11:47 am

This actually doesn't seem like a bad spot to me at all. There are definately 13 RBs I'd like to take with my first two picks, and you're in the spot that you're guranteed to get 2 of them. Plus, someone will likely take Brady before you, so you'll probably get 2 of your top-12 rated RBs. And there's no way I'd take any QB or WR at the turn. I'd take two of (in no particular order):
LT
ADP
SJax
Westy
Addai
Portis
Gore
McGahee
LJ
Lynch
Parker
MB3
and that's not even including guys like MJD, Grant, etc.

I'd love to leave the first two rounds of a draft with any duo of Lynch; Parker; MB3; LJ etc...
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Re: Maximizing Swing Pick Draft Position

Postby JasonSeahorn » Sun Mar 02, 2008 11:53 am

agree with BBB: the rb class is REALLY deep this year, and you know that brady and/or moss will be taken in the first round by someone, so you will be walking away with two rb1s. you can get two solid wides at the 3/4 pick, and with the qb class also being pretty deep, you should be able to walk away with either palmer, brees, romo, mcnabb, bulger or anderson at the 5/6 pick
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Re: Maximizing Swing Pick Draft Position

Postby A Fleshner Fantasy » Sun Mar 02, 2008 12:09 pm

Most years I don't like the last pick, but like people have said previously, this year's class has enough good RB that I wouldn't mind it. Especially considering that 3 non-RB have a good chance to go in the first round (Peyton, Brady, Moss).
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Re: Maximizing Swing Pick Draft Position

Postby Axl's Army » Sun Mar 02, 2008 1:35 pm

SLAMLLC wrote:Axl, is your league a redraft or do you keep some players. In a complete redraft you could be ok. In a keeper league things get a lot more complicated. I see a few RB that might be great late first round picks in a complete redraft league. In a keeper the pickings get slim I am seriously looking at the rookie RB for a 12th or 13th RB pick. We will know more after the NFL draft and if any will be in a situation where they could be the day 1 starter.


It's a Keeper. I keep Addai with my 1st pick which really maximizes my round 1 value considering I pick last in my 10-team league. Also, I can keep Romo in Round 10 or Braylon in Round 9. I traded Ryan Grant in the off-season for Romo. Many Cafe members have said keep Braylon & not Romo, but I traded to get him so I feel like I need to keep Romo. Also, I feel strongly that he is going to be the #1 QB in 2008.
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Re: Maximizing Swing Pick Draft Position

Postby SLAMLLC » Sun Mar 02, 2008 2:13 pm

It does seem like the RB's should go pretty deep this year. I just have concerns for going RB/RB with 12th and 13th picks and then having to wait until pick 36 and 37 for the first WR or QB. I can't wait for the draft to see where the rookies fall. Then the Mocks begin!
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