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Maximizing Swing Pick Draft Position

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Re: Maximizing Swing Pick Draft Position

Postby treat24 » Sun Mar 02, 2008 2:24 pm

SLAMLLC wrote:It does seem like the RB's should go pretty deep this year. I just have concerns for going RB/RB with 12th and 13th picks and then having to wait until pick 36 and 37 for the first WR or QB. I can't wait for the draft to see where the rookies fall. Then the Mocks begin!


mocks have already begun man! I've already done a few... there are a few going on right now. I know CPD is looking for people to join up with his mock...
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Re: Maximizing Swing Pick Draft Position

Postby SLAMLLC » Sun Mar 02, 2008 3:47 pm

I know some mocks are happening. I don't like to speculate too much until the free agents have settled down and the rookie class is sorted out. One player could change everything. I do like to keep one eye on the sepeculation though!
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Re: Maximizing Swing Pick Draft Position

Postby Cowboys 4 life » Sun Mar 02, 2008 8:35 pm

BigBadBrawler wrote:This actually doesn't seem like a bad spot to me at all. There are definately 13 RBs I'd like to take with my first two picks, and you're in the spot that you're guranteed to get 2 of them. Plus, someone will likely take Brady before you, so you'll probably get 2 of your top-12 rated RBs. And there's no way I'd take any QB or WR at the turn. I'd take two of (in no particular order):

I'd love to leave the first two rounds of a draft with any duo of Lynch; Parker; MB3; LJ etc...


Sure the RB's are deep but the ones with a real good chance to succeed without much risk go 5-6 deep. That means at #12 you will likely have 2 very risky RB's to choose from.

LT - solid
ADP - solid but still might split and the end of last year he sucked. Actually cost my team a SB (only needed 12 points 1/3 his average)
SJax - solid but on a bad team with a horrible oline
Westy - solid but injury prone. would still love to have him
Addai - same as Westy
Portis - Even splitting he did rather well last year. Definately #6
Gore - Which Gore shows up 2 years ago or last year. Last years Gore is not a #1 in my opinion.
McGahee - mediocre at best because of the team he is on.
LJ - Had him last year no thanks but unfortunately someone will have to gamble on him and pray.
Lynch - Lynch is good but on a bad team. A bit risky to rely on as a #1
Parker - Parker was a bust last year and not much has changed. The Steelers have become a passing team. Risky.
MB3 - I think MB3 has a good chance to put up some #1 numbers this year and I would feel comfy grabbing him 12th if he lasts.
MJD - Split carries. Can never be a true #1 because of it.
Grant - Big ? here. The starters of last year will be back and noone really knows whether this career backup will perform like last year.
Graham - This guy has some ?'s about him but I think he will actually perform well this year.

Out of the guys who might make it to the 12th-13th pick I would not feel comfortable with most of them as my #1. There are 2 guys I can think of right now that I would feel comfy with. MB3 and Graham. The rest have way too many ?'s about them.
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Re: Maximizing Swing Pick Draft Position

Postby SLAMLLC » Sun Mar 02, 2008 10:05 pm

Well you kind of prove the point that if you teir the RB's this year. There is a small tier 1. A small tier 2. A very large tier 3. Tier 1 + 2 will be gone by pick 5-6. So unless you finished in the bottom half of your league last year tier 3 is where you will have many to choose from. If this year is anything like last year 50% of the tier 1-2 guys will be busts also. So it puts you on some even footing even drafting 12th. That was my point I can't speak for anyone else. Lets tier the top 10 RB. That would help. I like your thinking on most of those guys.

Tier 1- LT + ADP (maybe)

Tier 2-Addai + SJAX + Westbrook + Portis

Tier 3-Just about everyone else is pretty much covered under one blanket.
A case can even be made for names you didn't mention to be in the company of some you did.
Basically 1/2 the league is going to have to start the draft with a tier three RB as their #1RB. So the competition should be pretty good is all I'm saying.

Guys like R. Brown,J. Lewis, Bush, Jacobs, De Williams, Mike Turner, Maroney could all do well as tier 3 RB. In the right situation 2-3 Rookies could really be worth a shot early. Last year ADP and Lynch were great picks.

I also expect Kevin Jones and Thomas Jones to improve alot this year.

So unless you are in the top six picks all else seems pretty even. Take out 2-3 of the top six due to injury at some point and drop them down into the third tier by the end of the season and the competition looks pretty good. There is a lot to look forward to this draft. The production has leveled off a lot.
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