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Turner to the Falcons

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Re: Turner to the Falcons

Postby yossarian » Tue Mar 04, 2008 5:58 pm

As a Norwood dynasty owner, I just want to say....

"CRAP!"

That is all.
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Re: Turner to the Falcons

Postby TheRawDAWG » Tue Mar 04, 2008 8:59 pm

I read an article on Sportsline that quoted Turner saying one of the reasons he came to Atlanta was becuase the new HC had alot of experience with the 2 back system and getting both backs involved. I think they will be running the ball 35 times a game and Norwood ends up getting hid share...12-16 with Turner around 18-20. Going to be much closer than people think because of the shear number of times they will be rushing the ball.
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Re: Turner to the Falcons

Postby Humpback » Tue Mar 04, 2008 10:43 pm

TheRawDAWG wrote:I read an article on Sportsline that quoted Turner saying one of the reasons he came to Atlanta was becuase the new HC had alot of experience with the 2 back system and getting both backs involved. I think they will be running the ball 35 times a game and Norwood ends up getting hid share...12-16 with Turner around 18-20. Going to be much closer than people think because of the shear number of times they will be rushing the ball.


Again, I just can't see them running the ball that often. They averaged 24 carries per game last year as a team, which was 4th fewest in the NFL. If the entire team averaged 35 carries per game (not just those two), they would've had more attempts than any team in the league has had for the last 3 seasons. Just can't see that happening.
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Re: Turner to the Falcons

Postby treat24 » Tue Mar 04, 2008 11:25 pm

Humpback wrote:
TheRawDAWG wrote:I read an article on Sportsline that quoted Turner saying one of the reasons he came to Atlanta was becuase the new HC had alot of experience with the 2 back system and getting both backs involved. I think they will be running the ball 35 times a game and Norwood ends up getting hid share...12-16 with Turner around 18-20. Going to be much closer than people think because of the shear number of times they will be rushing the ball.


Again, I just can't see them running the ball that often. They averaged 24 carries per game last year as a team, which was 4th fewest in the NFL. If the entire team averaged 35 carries per game (not just those two), they would've had more attempts than any team in the league has had for the last 3 seasons. Just can't see that happening.


;-D for some reason, coaches and analysts make estimates and then don't realize how off the wall it is... it's like back in the day and you don't see it anymore... "we expect so and so to carry it 25-30 times a game"... that just doesn't happen too often, especially not consistently... nice call out HB ;-D
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Re: Turner to the Falcons

Postby skibrett15 » Wed Mar 05, 2008 3:26 am

Totally agree with wrangor on the philosophy aspect of the signing. The comparisons aren't exactly right since Taylor is/was way more powerful than Norwood. Turner will be the Goaline guy, but he won't be the reception machine that Jones-Drew was. That makes him less valuable. But I think he will get a little more action running the ball than Jones-Drew. Still, not quite as valuable since I think Norwood is the 3rd down back plus every odd series now and again.

The biggest problem isn't the O-line, it's the lack of passing threat. Is it possible that Randy Moss created LaMont Jordan? Roddy White doesn't do that like Moss does. And whoever the Falcons start will probably be worse off than Collins was. Their O-line is respectable in my opinion, it won't be the limiting factor.

I think both Turner/Norwood are No.3 backs. I like Turner a heck of a lot more, but so does everyone, so I think Norwood will be the guy I end up drafting.
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Re: Turner to the Falcons

Postby TheRawDAWG » Wed Mar 05, 2008 8:27 am

Humpback wrote:
TheRawDAWG wrote:I read an article on Sportsline that quoted Turner saying one of the reasons he came to Atlanta was becuase the new HC had alot of experience with the 2 back system and getting both backs involved. I think they will be running the ball 35 times a game and Norwood ends up getting hid share...12-16 with Turner around 18-20. Going to be much closer than people think because of the shear number of times they will be rushing the ball.


Again, I just can't see them running the ball that often. They averaged 24 carries per game last year as a team, which was 4th fewest in the NFL. If the entire team averaged 35 carries per game (not just those two), they would've had more attempts than any team in the league has had for the last 3 seasons. Just can't see that happening.



Forget the carries. Turner said he came to the Falcons becuase he liked how the HC is experienced using a 2 back system to keep everyone involved. If he doesn't think he's getting the 70/30 split why does everyone else?

They also have a new coach who should run the ball alot more than the old guys. Judging from his back ground with the Jags who've been a run first team for a while now. Maybe not 35 but definitely 30+ IMO.
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Re: Turner to the Falcons

Postby onnestabe » Wed Mar 05, 2008 9:12 am

TheRawDAWG wrote:Forget the carries. Turner said he came to the Falcons becuase he liked how the HC is experienced using a 2 back system to keep everyone involved. If he doesn't think he's getting the 70/30 split why does everyone else?

They also have a new coach who should run the ball alot more than the old guys. Judging from his back ground with the Jags who've been a run first team for a while now. Maybe not 35 but definitely 30+ IMO.


I agree that he will want to run the ball a lot more than the old guys, but the question is can he? I don't know if they will be able to run the ball as much as they want to when they are down by 2 TDs in the first half. Their defense wasn't awful last year, but it sure wasn't the Jags defense either. I haven't noticed them doing much to improve it this offseason either. I don't doubt that he wants to create a situation that is like what has led to Jacksonville's success, but I don't think he has the personnel to make it happen.
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Re: Turner to the Falcons

Postby Humpback » Wed Mar 05, 2008 9:59 am

onnestabe wrote:
TheRawDAWG wrote:Forget the carries. Turner said he came to the Falcons becuase he liked how the HC is experienced using a 2 back system to keep everyone involved. If he doesn't think he's getting the 70/30 split why does everyone else?

They also have a new coach who should run the ball alot more than the old guys. Judging from his back ground with the Jags who've been a run first team for a while now. Maybe not 35 but definitely 30+ IMO.


I agree that he will want to run the ball a lot more than the old guys, but the question is can he? I don't know if they will be able to run the ball as much as they want to when they are down by 2 TDs in the first half. Their defense wasn't awful last year, but it sure wasn't the Jags defense either. I haven't noticed them doing much to improve it this offseason either. I don't doubt that he wants to create a situation that is like what has led to Jacksonville's success, but I don't think he has the personnel to make it happen.


Treat, I agree, I've actually done this a few times myself in the past, that's why I started looking things up a bit more. It's easy to say "so and so should get 25 carries per game", but the reality is, that's 400 carries per year, which has only been done a handful of times in NFL history. Heck, only 3 RBs in the NFL averaged 20+ per game last season (which is lower than normal, but looks like it's a trend).

Exactly. Wanting to run the ball and being able to are two completely different things. As of right now, Atlanta looks to be one of the weaker teams in the NFL still. Unless they just give up on several games, teams generally don't run the ball much in the second half when down by double digits.

Only 7 teams averaged 30+ carries per game last season- 5 of them made the playoffs, and only 1 of the 7 had a losing record. Only 2 teams have averaged 35+ cpg in the last 7 seasons (both Pitt). It's possible, but I don't think it's very likely. Again, that's including everybody on the team, not just the top 2 RBs- you have to figure 2-4 cpg will come from QBs, FBs, WRs, or other RBs.

I think a combined 25-26 carries per game average from Turner and Norwood is about right. That will put them right in the middle of the league in terms of cpg, which would be a pretty decent increase.
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Re: Turner to the Falcons

Postby Kilroy » Wed Mar 05, 2008 12:36 pm

I don't see Turner being on many (if any) of my teams in 2008. All the hype's gonna inflate his ADP to the point where he's just not (IMO) going to be worth the risk of his being a "bust", which given that ADP and the fact that he's in NFL H**l is a fair risk indeed.
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Re: Turner to the Falcons

Postby knapplc » Wed Mar 05, 2008 2:48 pm

Kilroy1872 wrote:I don't see Turner being on many (if any) of my teams in 2008. All the hype's gonna inflate his ADP to the point where he's just not (IMO) going to be worth the risk of his being a "bust", which given that ADP and the fact that he's in NFL H**l is a fair risk indeed.

He went to Oakland? :-?

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