thriftyrocker wrote:Slaton has the best opportunity given he has two mediocre guys with injury problems ahead of him. He had better competition at WVU. I wouldn't have even taken him in the first round pre-draft but now I'm pretty high on him.
I really don't like any of the rookie WRs this high.
Ryan will be decent. Like Matt Schaub decent, ironically. But it is crazy to take him this high unless you have a serious need.
that's who I voted for, the competition is weak to say the least, he's gotta be out, who? Ahman Green, bah, that's nothing, I could easily see him taking most of the carries by week 4 or 5.
Ray Rice is a steal at #8. The guy was a top5 RB predraft (for most people) and now he is sliding a few spots because he landed in a supposedly "bad" situation. Talent always wins out though. Just look at where Marion Barber is today after he was supposedly stuck behind Julius Jones indefinitely when he was drafted. Maurice Jones Drew was stuck behind Fred Taylor. Guys "stuck behind someone" can sometimes end up being the best players in their draft class one or two years later. All you have to do is trust in the talent and be happy when a present falls in your lap at pick #8.
I was in a similar spot at #9 in my draft this year (the top7 matched the poll) and didn't have the option of taking Rice. My decision came down to about 7 players: Ryan, Slaton, Nelson, Kelly, Thomas, Hardy, and Sweed.
Slaton: I immediately crossed off Slaton from my list because of the quotes I picked up from Houston front office about getting him some "passes" and getting him the ball "outside". Aging Ahman Green aside (who they really seem to believe in for 2008 for whatever reason), there is a LOT of competition on this team. Chris Brown is a seasoned veteran and is very talented when healthy. This is one of the top backup RBs in the league people. Then you hear the love they have for Chris Taylor who was out in 2007 with injury. Walker filled in pretty good last year as well. They CUT Ron Dayne even though he started some games for them the past couple years. But really, it all boils down to this, Slaton (who fell in the draft because people didn't believe he could be featured) went to a team with intense competition for ANY touches even at RBBC. The coaching staff has eluded to Slaton being part of 3rd down and passing packages. That is his potential role. He is a niche player in Houston IMO. They went out and got a veteran 20 carry RB to backup their aging veteran 20 carry RB. And they drafted a COP RB in Slaton. AND they already had guys to develop on their bench that could go either way. I just couldn't see myself picking Slaton at 1.09 in a rookie draft with all that going against him. You think for a second that hey maybe this guy is in a good situation and is going to have a chance in year 1 or year 2... but maybe he never gets that chance. Maybe he just fades away like his draft stock did this past year...
Ryan: is not Peyton or even Eli Manning. But he could be Alex Smith. I'm wary of drafting QBs early in dynasty as it is, but Ryan is in a horrible situation. Atlanta has changed coaches a lot the past couple of years. Their entire offensive philosophy is in turmoil. Management is looking for a savior. But deep down this is just a franchise in trouble. Maybe Ryan has it in him to turn it around. But even then I wouldn't expect fantasy relevance (read: top10 or top12 perennial QB) with the strength of the team being at the RB position with the Turner/Norwood combo. Ryan was the first QB off the board. The only QB drafted at the very top. He is almost surely going to be one of the first QBs to start for his team. Does that make him worth so much more than a guy like Flacco or Henne who also may start this year and turn around their respective franchises? Or even a guy like Brohm who is potentially the most valuable of the bunch with the talent GB has on offense. I don't buy Ryan. Not at #9.
Jorday Nelson: is a poor man's Wes Welker who is behind a deep and young WR rotation that he may never get past. Even if he does get on the field and entrench himself as a starter within the next couple of years (doubtful IMO), he is still the #2 most talented WR on the roster behind Jennings and he is more noted for his YAC on slants than he is for his endzone prowess. Driver is gonna be there for two years at least IMO. James Jones will not roll over so Nelson can get playing time. And Greg Jennings is their franchise. I just don't see much fantasy potential left for Nelson. Not even getting into the fact that Rodgers is a relative unknown and Brohm is hot on his heels on the bench. Green Bay could be a franchise in trouble rather than transition. Pass on Nelson.
Kelly/Thomas: I passed on both for one main reason. The Washington Redskin's don't know what the hell they are doing. The guy that should be the QB coach is now the offensive coordinator... wait I mean the HEAD coach. They drafted two top WRs and a top TE in the 2nd round despite having Santana Moss (at least a solid #2 NFL wide) and Chris Cooley (solid #1 TE). The losses at the coaching positions are bad enough, but now their idiotic front office is drafting too many people to fill too little slots. Campbell looks a shade above mediocre at this point, but can you count on more? And who is going to emerge between Kelly and Thomas? Many had one or both of these guys at the top of their boards predraft, but my bet is that one or both of them will struggle to get on the field and produce even if we look ahead 2 or 3 years into the future. I can't afford to trust in Washington to develop both of these guys to be fantasy relevant. And in the end, I won't trust them to make EITHER of them fantasy relevant. Kelly/Thomas therefore were not an option at 1.09.
Hardy: Two things scared me off of Hardy. His character and his situation. I love the fact that this guy is a big target and has been a prolific TD threat throughout his entire college career. That is the type of player I look for when I draft a WR in the first round dynasty. Think Larry Fitzgerald/Randy Moss potential. Big payoff relatively quickly and potentially a long career. Hardy fits the Bill. But then I look at the situation. Lee Evans is a very solid young WR. He may be suited more in a role as the #2 WR in the offense, but he could still easily see the most targets on that time for a long time into the future. There is a gaping hole across from Evans however so I can somewhat overlook that for Hardy's prospects. The main worry in Buffalo is the QB position and the division. Buffalo plays in some bad weather. They have a young stud RB with a deep and young RB bench. The ideal QB in Buffalo is pretty much a game manager IMO. And Buffalo would be very happy if Edwards turns into a solid game manager. But he's not there yet, not even close. Losman was a top20 QB prospect at this time last year. And two years ago some people might have thought journeyman Kelly Holcomb should be the short term starter there. This is a situation that is anywhere close to being settled. And I have yet to decide if Edwards is competent enough to hold onto the QB position this entire year, let alone be productive two years from now. I had also read something about Hardy's character scaring off a couple teams, but I looked right past that. But now with the info coming out about the domestic issues and the current gun on father episode, maybe I should have paid more attention to that. Bottomline, Hardy could easily be the year 1 "star" since he is likely to start fairly early, but there is a lot left to be desired for a potential franchise WR then just a solid year 1.
Sweed: The biggest drawback to Sweed is the intangibles. The guy missed the last half of his college season when some said he should have been back out there on the field. The hand is therefore a somewhat unresolved issue. Then we have the sloppy route running and inability to gets YAC. It's hard to be an elite WR in the NFL if you don't have the basics of the position on lock down. Sweed seemed to get by a lot in college on his size and his hands. But that is what drew me to him in the first place, size and hands. Size and hands equals TDs and fantasy potential in the NFL. And I believe that Sweed could easily turn into the 2005 version of Burress in Pittsburgh. AKA the guy Big Ben hucks the ball to downfield when he rolls out and/or gets in trouble. Big Ben came out and said he wanted a big guy to throw the ball to (did you see how many TDs the TEs had there last season?), and reportedly Sweed was a first round talent for Pittsburgh that they were able to grab in the 2nd. I really like the way the Pittsburgh offense is shaping up for WRs as the new offense seems to like to pass a LOT more than the old. But are there too many pass catchers in Pittsburgh? Santonio Holmes is a young gun and a baller, Heath Miller is also young and a baller, and Ward is a veteran leader. Bottomline, I think what sold me on drafting Sweed at 1.09 is that Hines Ward gave an interview where he said he wouldn't be around forever and that he was giving individual attention to Sweed to improve his game. I think that Ward is setting himself up to where Sweed can come in in the next year or two and replaceWard, and Ward can be happy with that situation as #3 WR there. And anyways, if Ward/Holmes/Miller are a huge drawback, Big Ben is a huge plus. Pittsburgh is going to have a potent offense for a long time with Big Ben under the helm. I chose Limas Sweed at 1.09.
Maybe you know more about Nelson than I do but the limited video and what I've read about him Nelson is nothing like Wes Welker. Nelson could be a nice big target in the red zone but I don't see him having the quickness and athleticism like Welker where he'll be a great slot WR. Like I said, maybe I'm wrong though.
sinceufc2 wrote:Maybe you know more about Nelson than I do but the limited video and what I've read about him Nelson is nothing like Wes Welker. Nelson could be a nice big target in the red zone but I don't see him having the quickness and athleticism like Welker where he'll be a great slot WR. Like I said, maybe I'm wrong though.
I count about 75 passes in this highlight video. Basically a year worth of Jorday Nelson.
Almost all quick outs. Slants, outs, stops, curls. Short routes that are designed to get the ball to the WR quickly so he can run with it.
There are ZERO deep bombs in this video. ZERO. I see ONE catche in the endzone. There are maybe three or four redzone plays total. And I think I saw a total of six or so plays greater than 20 or 30 yards and he usually didn't take them to the house.
I do see a lot of gritty stuff. The guy is not the fastest in the world but he sprints on every play. He breaks an occasional tackle. He has some good moves. He has great hands. He looked great returning. Kinda like Wes Welker, but a bigger and a little slower. He'll probably be a solid player for an NFL team, I just don't see the fantasy potential there though. Especially in Green Bay.
"If you want to know the truth, he probably caught more possession-type routes, the short, underneath stuff in his offense," Packers receivers coach Jimmy Robinson said. "But then you see him run by guys, as well. He runs pretty well, particularly for a guy that is 217 pounds. This is not a slow receiver. He'll have his share of running by guys, I feel certain of that."
Thanks for the info- like I said I didn't see a ton of him. I was just saying from what I did see he looked bigger and quite a bit slower than Welker which you seem to agree on. I meant maybe he'd be a good redzone guy simply because of his size & hands.