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Re: Ray Rice

Postby deerayfan072 » Thu Jun 19, 2008 5:07 pm

Azrael wrote:I don't really see Rice getting on the field much unless McGahee is hurt. McGahee is top 5 in talent among RBs. He's more talented than Ronnie Brown who Cameron made into a stud with a crappy O-line in Miami. I expect the same in Baltimore. Big year for McGahee this year. Could push top 5 with the way he will be used.


got to remember that Cameron is now in BAL, which means IMO that he is going to do the LT/Turner split
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Re: Ray Rice

Postby Humpback » Thu Jun 19, 2008 7:41 pm

deerayfan072 wrote:
Azrael wrote:I don't really see Rice getting on the field much unless McGahee is hurt. McGahee is top 5 in talent among RBs. He's more talented than Ronnie Brown who Cameron made into a stud with a crappy O-line in Miami. I expect the same in Baltimore. Big year for McGahee this year. Could push top 5 with the way he will be used.


got to remember that Cameron is now in BAL, which means IMO that he is going to do the LT/Turner split


That's not a good thing for Rice. The LT2/Turner carry split (all in favor of LT2 obviously) has been 82%/18% in '07, 81%/19% in '06, 86%/14% in '05, and 94%/6% in '04. I realize that Cam wasn't there every year, but Turner really hasn't been much of a factor (he only has 11 total career receptions to go along with his career high of 80 carries in a season). Throw in the fact that Balti runs the ball less than SD, it doesn't bode well for Rice's opportunities in the near term.

If Rice gets 100 total touches in a season any of the next few years, that would be more than I expect.
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Re: Ray Rice

Postby deerayfan072 » Thu Jun 19, 2008 7:49 pm

Humpback wrote:
deerayfan072 wrote:
Azrael wrote:I don't really see Rice getting on the field much unless McGahee is hurt. McGahee is top 5 in talent among RBs. He's more talented than Ronnie Brown who Cameron made into a stud with a crappy O-line in Miami. I expect the same in Baltimore. Big year for McGahee this year. Could push top 5 with the way he will be used.


got to remember that Cameron is now in BAL, which means IMO that he is going to do the LT/Turner split


That's not a good thing for Rice. The LT2/Turner carry split (all in favor of LT2 obviously) has been 82%/18% in '07, 81%/19% in '06, 86%/14% in '05, and 94%/6% in '04. I realize that Cam wasn't there every year, but Turner really hasn't been much of a factor (he only has 11 total career receptions to go along with his career high of 80 carries in a season). Throw in the fact that Balti runs the ball less than SD, it doesn't bode well for Rice's opportunities in the near term.

If Rice gets 100 total touches in a season any of the next few years, that would be more than I expect.


that's what I meant, i was adding on to AZ. Now that I look it does make it sound like I was contradicting him :-b
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Re: Ray Rice

Postby Kensat30 » Thu Jun 19, 2008 11:31 pm

Humpback wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:This guy could easily become the next Marion Barber/Michael Turner/Brandon Jacobs.


The only similarity I see is with Turner. MBIII only had to compete with a young non-proven JJ, and Jacobs went into a situation with a much older RB in front of him. I see the Turner one (McGahee is obviously not LT2, but he is a very solid RB). The problem is, it took Turner until his 5th season before he even gets a chance to become FF relevant, and we still don't know if he'll be any good. That's my issue with Rice- McGahee is still pretty young, has a lot of tread left on his tires, and Cameron hasn't exactly been a RBBC guy. I just don't expect him to get on the field much barring a major injury or trade, so it could very well be 3-4 years before he gets a real opportunity.


For me, the goal in a dynasty league is to find someone who will get a real chance to be a long term starter at some point. Obviously, if the opportunity to start is there in year 1 or even year 2, that is going to add value to a player. But almost always those year 1/year 2 guys are going to be identified the day after the NFL draft and they are going to go earlier in fantasy drafts.

A guy like Rice on the other hand, is a guy you wouldn't expect to start in year 1 or even year 2, and he is dropping in drafts because of that. To me, that identifies him a value player because I believe he does have the talent to start and to hold on to a job when he gets the chance. All it will take is an injury to Willis Mcgahee and suddenly Ray Rice is the #1-#3 most valuable player in the draft instead of the (perceived) #8 most valuable player. Whether that happens in year 1 or year 4 or even when he goes to another team on his 2nd contract is inconsequential, because I believe he is one of the few backs talented enough in the class to grab a job and hang onto it. Those types of players you NEED to draft when you have the opportunity and often those types of opportunities are simply not available in the 2nd half of the first round in dynasty.

Really, I think Rice should be up there with the Kevin Smiths of the world in the #5ish, rather than grouped with #8s and the Ryan Torains of the world.
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Re: Ray Rice

Postby LS2throwed » Fri Jun 20, 2008 2:01 am

Well its hard to put him up there with the Kevin Smith's or Matt Forte's because he isn't getting his chance as soon...That also is more of a risk to hold onto a guy for 3 years before he gets a huge role, and even then you might not know how good he will be in a starters role, OR if they want to keep him doing the same role and draft a bigger back(similiar to the situation with Deangelo Williams, we thought it was his time but John Fox wants to keep him doing what he's doing)...MJD's situation was a little different because Fred Taylor wasn't really a goal line back, and he was older, thus paving way for an immediate impact from MJD, McGahee is younger and a more all around back...He gets his goal line carries, and he gets better as the game goes, he also is on a huge contract so I doubt he is getting phased out quite yet...I like Rice alot, but I won't take him before other backs who will see the field first, an injury could always happen to McGahee, but it could also happen to someone else and a Ryan Grant, Ernest Graham, or Ahmad Bradshaw emerges from the WW's like every year.
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Re: Ray Rice

Postby Humpback » Fri Jun 20, 2008 9:44 am

Kensat30 wrote:
Humpback wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:This guy could easily become the next Marion Barber/Michael Turner/Brandon Jacobs.


The only similarity I see is with Turner. MBIII only had to compete with a young non-proven JJ, and Jacobs went into a situation with a much older RB in front of him. I see the Turner one (McGahee is obviously not LT2, but he is a very solid RB). The problem is, it took Turner until his 5th season before he even gets a chance to become FF relevant, and we still don't know if he'll be any good. That's my issue with Rice- McGahee is still pretty young, has a lot of tread left on his tires, and Cameron hasn't exactly been a RBBC guy. I just don't expect him to get on the field much barring a major injury or trade, so it could very well be 3-4 years before he gets a real opportunity.


For me, the goal in a dynasty league is to find someone who will get a real chance to be a long term starter at some point. Obviously, if the opportunity to start is there in year 1 or even year 2, that is going to add value to a player. But almost always those year 1/year 2 guys are going to be identified the day after the NFL draft and they are going to go earlier in fantasy drafts.

A guy like Rice on the other hand, is a guy you wouldn't expect to start in year 1 or even year 2, and he is dropping in drafts because of that. To me, that identifies him a value player because I believe he does have the talent to start and to hold on to a job when he gets the chance. All it will take is an injury to Willis Mcgahee and suddenly Ray Rice is the #1-#3 most valuable player in the draft instead of the (perceived) #8 most valuable player. Whether that happens in year 1 or year 4 or even when he goes to another team on his 2nd contract is inconsequential, because I believe he is one of the few backs talented enough in the class to grab a job and hang onto it. Those types of players you NEED to draft when you have the opportunity and often those types of opportunities are simply not available in the 2nd half of the first round in dynasty.

Really, I think Rice should be up there with the Kevin Smiths of the world in the #5ish, rather than grouped with #8s and the Ryan Torains of the world.


I agree to an extent, but I just don't like his situation. He has a guy who is still relatively young, doesn't have a ton of carries in his career, his contract isn't up soon, etc. in front of him. Really, it's going to take an injury (and probably a very serious one) for him to get much of a chance at all. At least with other guys (like MBIII and Jacobs for instance), there were other more likely ways for them to get a chance besides injury, so their chances of contributing much sooner were much greater IMO.

I do like Rice, but I just don't like the situation much. The biggest reason is McGahee, and Cam has always given the bulk of carries to his horse. Even if McGahee gets hurt, we don't know if Rice will be any good. The O-line there is bad, the QB situation completely up in the air, etc. Just not a great situation. I think given that, he's being taken in the #7-#10 spot in most rookie drafts, which is just about right IMO. It's great when an investment (ala SJax) pays off a few years down the road, but it's brutal when you draft a guy fairly early, sit on him for 3-4 years, and he rarely even sees the field. If he's just okay when he finally does, it's a real disappointment.

Smith just has more value right now, even if it's only trade value- you could get Rice and something for a Smith type, and rightfully so. I would certainly take him over Torain however. ;-D
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Re: Ray Rice

Postby Kensat30 » Sun Jun 22, 2008 1:46 pm

Didn't Mcgahee himself come into the league and not expect to start until at least a couple years down the road?

1 year later and he is a starter and fantasy impact player.

Travis Henry at that point in time was a similar RB to what McGahee is now IMO.
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Re: Ray Rice

Postby LS2throwed » Sun Jun 22, 2008 5:15 pm

Kensat30 wrote:Didn't Mcgahee himself come into the league and not expect to start until at least a couple years down the road?

1 year later and he is a starter and fantasy impact player.

Travis Henry at that point in time was a similar RB to what McGahee is now IMO.


McGahee was a 1st rd pick, and when he was drafted their intentions were to make him the future back, he just needed 1 year mininum to heal properly..Thats a different scenario then Ray Rice, when your a 1st rd pick there is alot more invested in you and a team obvious has plans for you in the near future...The same can't be said for Rice.
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Re: Ray Rice

Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Sun Jun 22, 2008 11:28 pm

LS2throwed wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:Didn't Mcgahee himself come into the league and not expect to start until at least a couple years down the road?

1 year later and he is a starter and fantasy impact player.

Travis Henry at that point in time was a similar RB to what McGahee is now IMO.


McGahee was a 1st rd pick, and when he was drafted their intentions were to make him the future back, he just needed 1 year mininum to heal properly..Thats a different scenario then Ray Rice, when your a 1st rd pick there is alot more invested in you and a team obvious has plans for you in the near future...The same can't be said for Rice.


Teams also don't use their 2nd round pick on just "roster filler" or "roster depth". The Ravens obviously like Rice, and must think that he has some sort of value to them in the future outside of special teams. However, I'm still confused as to what their plans with Rice and McGahee are. McGahee still has six possible years left on his deal, if the Ravens want to keep him that long. I would think that McGahee will start to slow down within 3 or so years though; he's already 26, so maybe Rice sees the field then?
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Re: Ray Rice

Postby stomperrob » Thu Jul 24, 2008 3:36 pm

Off and running for Ravens' Rice
Future bright, but past not forgotten
Mike Preston
July 24, 2008

....

The Ravens have given Rice a lot of attention during the past two days. Though Willis McGahee is the starting running back, the Ravens don't have total trust in him. He's a little flaky.

The team brought in Rice as an insurance policy, someone who can push McGahee because of Rice's strong work ethic. The Ravens aren't afraid of Rice's lack of size.

The Ravens will get Rice on the field somehow, because he is too good of an athlete to keep off it. He has been returning punts and already gives you a confidence in handling the ball that you never got last season from regular returner Yamon Figurs.

"Special teams have really been great," Rice said. "I'm catching punts, kick returns and even running down on kickoffs. Anytime you can be good on special teams, you know you can play some different roles on offense. I think special teams just opens the door for you.



rest of article: http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/foot ... 406.column
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