Willie Parker

[ssarmstro]

I have this guy on my fantasy team. I am not very strong at running back and I was counting on him and Portis keeping me competitive. With Mendenhal now a Steeler I want to know what you guys think. I would like to think he is still a low end #2. But I am having a hard time. What are your thought on Fast Willie? How many people are planning to trade him this year? I will tell you I am nervous because I see Mendenhal getting Goalline, and at least 10-15 carries a game. In an offense where they spent 60 Million in Big Ben I think Passing will again be a big staple....??

[BigBadBrawler]

Despite Big Ben's numbers, PIT still passed the ball less than any team in the NFL, and they still rush the ball a whole lot. I think Parker is a very good RB2 who will still get a majority of the carries in the PIT offense. Mendenhall will probably assume GL duties and get about 10 carries a game, but there's gonna be a lotta touches to go around, so I don't think you'll have to worry about Parker's production diminishing too significantly for a couple of years (when PIT finally starts phasing him out)...

[ssarmstro]

I see your point but my thing is Willie had to average close to 30 touches a game in most instances to get his average where it was. (Which was very good yardage wise!)With the diminished carries and lack of goallline can he really be counted on in fantasy to carry a team????Fact is I don't see him averaging what he did last year and with him not even sniffing the GL I am thinking about cutting my losses. Most people felt last yr was a down yr for fwp and if people think last yr was bad, is there any reason to expect any better going forward now!!

[JasonSeahorn]

If you post your whole roster and the league settings, we could do a better job of advising whether or not you should hold onto FWP.

I don't know if Mendenhall has already been labeled as the clear-cut goal line RB. Last year FWP sometimes came out even at the goal line to get rest because, as you said, he was getting 25-30+ touches a game. Assuming Mendenhall gets about 10 touches, FWP should be fresher when he is playing and they may decide to leave FWP in when they do get close to the endzone. But if we know your team make-up we can help you more

[Humpback]

As with any trade possibility, it depends on what you can get for him. "Cutting your losses" doesn't sound like you think you can get much, so why bother dumping him? There's no guarantee that Mendenhall will be great, get the goal lines, or stay healthy, although it seems like he should be.

I don't think he's going to carry your team, and I don't expect him to do much better this year than last, but he still should be a lower #2. If you can help your team by dealing him, I'd have no problem with that, but I wouldn't deal him for a 2nd round rookie pick or anything like that.

[ssarmstro]

I added my roster to my sig.
Normal scoring - Dynasty league - 125 salary cap - Keep 7 starters - 4 reserves.

If you want to talk about my roster it is ok with me but I know this forum is to discuss player info.
I wanted really know how many people were starting to get down on willie? Maybe I am over reacting because allot of you seem to not be too concerned...

[mattb47]

It's easy to forget that Willie is just one season removed from 16 total TDs and being considered an elite fantasy back. Mendenhall hurts his value, no doubt, but no one truly knows the extent to which Mendenhall will be used and to give the benefit of the doubt to the unproven rookie is likely a mistake. The reason teams tend to go with a 2-back approach now on teams is that it's MUCH tougher to gameplan to defend a good powerful runner AND a good speed back than it would be to really just have to gameplan for one or the other. This means that while you'll likely see a dip in Parker's overall touches, he could very well be more efficient with the touches he does get (which you often see in speed backs in a 2-back system like this) and could still see some goal line touches. I've seen many coaches in the past (including the Steelers last season) give the first shot at punching it in near the goal line to the back that got them there, so if Parker has a good run to get them down into that area, we could see him get some opportunities to punch it in.

All that being said, I think Parker is still a solid #2 fantasy back next season...I mean the guy did still lead the league in rushing before he got hurt and he's easily one of the fastest RBs in the entire NFL and that breakaway speed is going to be highlighted even more with a good compliment back like Mendenhall.

[Humpback]

Just trying to help you.

Yes, most people are down on Parker, and rightfully so. He was a top 10 RB going into last year, but then he didn't score many TDs, broke his leg, and they drafted a great RB prospect. So, his value is going to be lower going into this season than it was going into last season.

"Down" is relative here- he's down from where he was, but he's not worthless. You should be okay with him as your #2 RB, but that's not what most people drafted him to be last year.

[ssarmstro]

No I really I appreciate the help, I just don't want to get dinged by the MODS.

But I guess I am over reacting but when the ranks come out willie went from a top 15 player to a 15-30 player ranking...

[BlueBandit24]

I view Parker as a low-end #2 RB with limited upside at this point. He has been a yardage machine, but he ceded goal-line looks to the passing game and at times to Najeh Davenport last year. With Mendenhall and Sweed now on board, along with a healthy Matt Spaeth, I do not see Parker getting a lot of opportunities at the stripe this year either. Mendenhall is a much larger threat to Parker's touches than Davenport ever was and the Steelers also brought in Mewelde Moore, who can be a good 3rd down back with his receiving skills. Parker's yardage totals should still be decent on the ground but I do not see a lot of TD's or receptions for FWP this year. Throw in the fact that the Steelers lost arguably their best run blocking lineman in Faneca and it is hard for me to get excited for Parker's 2008 prospects. I am projecting something along the lines of Thomas Jones' season last year, maybe with a couple more TD's thanks to Willie's home run ability.

I've also never thought Parker was the elite runner that his numbers might suggest. The dude's got talent, but he strikes me as somewhat one dimensional, a big play threat with limited ability breaking tackles and catching the ball. Somewhat of a glorified Michael Bennett, IMO. I am not turning the page on FWP, since he will still have a prominent role in the offense, but the current structure of the Steelers' offense and my confidence in Mendenhall's abilities have me seriously questioning Parker's overall value.