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Re: Willie Parker

Postby Venom » Thu Jun 05, 2008 10:56 pm

ssarmstro wrote:No I really I appreciate the help, I just don't want to get dinged by the MODS.


They don't come in here.

(looks around)

:-D
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Re: Willie Parker

Postby Kilroy » Sun Jun 08, 2008 2:59 am

Venom wrote:
ssarmstro wrote:No I really I appreciate the help, I just don't want to get dinged by the MODS.


They don't come in here.

(looks around)

:-D


BOO! }:-)

:-B

I'm with Matt here. There may be a point a year or two down the line where Parker is phased out/not re-signed/cut/whatever, but I think too many people are reading too much too soon into the Squealers drafting Mendy. They saw value, they took it...'nuff said. Parker, outside the crappy TD numbers (repeat after me...TDs are fluky...TDs are fluky) didn't exactly suck last year. It's a little early to start Willie's Wake.

Solid RB2, and if his ADP keeps dropping he's gonna represent a sweet value pick.
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Re: Willie Parker

Postby sappisgod » Mon Jun 09, 2008 4:39 am

I'd be down on him too. I really wasn't sold on Rashard at this time last year, but I've come around on him quite a bit. Mendenhall is not only a bigger back, but he is also a very good inside runner. The two don't always go hand in hand as one would think. And being a very good receiver also, as well as a spell back, I really don't see any reason whatsoever why Parker would see more goalline carries. Running backs are usually quick to contribute, especially top backs, so it is likely he'll make an immediate impact in Parker's production. And given Pittsburgh's investment in him, and their penchant for running the ball, it's probable that they will want to see what the kid's got ASAP.

But still, I would ride Parker out. As mentioned, many people are using the same line of thought you are, so you are quite unlikely to find equal value in trade. Keep him and his yards, and should Mendenhall suffer a big setback or injury, you could end up with a top production back.
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Re: Willie Parker

Postby ssarmstro » Mon Jun 09, 2008 8:21 am

True But where does Melede Moore fit in.... Doesn't he do 3rd downs? Or is he just a kick returner???
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Re: Willie Parker

Postby Humpback » Mon Jun 09, 2008 3:14 pm

ssarmstro wrote:True But where does Melede Moore fit in.... Doesn't he do 3rd downs? Or is he just a kick returner???


Moore is a pretty good 3rd down RB as well, so between him and Mendy, it doesn't look too likely that FWP will get a lot of those touches.
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Re: Willie Parker

Postby mattb47 » Mon Jun 09, 2008 5:48 pm

Humpback wrote:
ssarmstro wrote:True But where does Melede Moore fit in.... Doesn't he do 3rd downs? Or is he just a kick returner???


Moore is a pretty good 3rd down RB as well, so between him and Mendy, it doesn't look too likely that FWP will get a lot of those touches.


Man...these are the kind of things that will make Parker a flat out steal come draft time next season. I think people are confusing this situation with some other situations where a starter just hadn't been cutting it and new players were brought in to basically replace that guy. Parker was leading the NFL in rushing before he got hurt late in the season...if you think they're not still going to get Parker plenty of touches next season you're just plain wrong. Will he get get the 330+ carries that he had been going for the past couple of years? Probably not, but if you think Parker is going to get fewer than 225-250 carries, I think you're mistaken. The Steelers ran the ball 511 times last season (3rd in the NFL) and Parker averaged around 23 of the 32 carries per game that they had. I would be VERY surprised to see him get fewer than 15 carries per game and even at 15 per game, we're looking at 240 carries next season. Parker showed he could be a very effective yardage back last year, and he has the potential to get in the endzone (look at 2 years ago), but I think you'll see him used extensively between the 20s this season again.

Moore was mainly brought in to help with special teams because our ST has been absolutely awful the past few years and no one really knows to what extent he'll be used on offense as well. I think people need to stop panicking and stop jumping to conclusions on what everyone's role will be next year because I don't think we'll see the Steelers abandon a RB who averaged 1337 yards per season for the past 3 years based on a value pick in the draft that they didn't necessarily anticipate being around.
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Re: Willie Parker

Postby Humpback » Mon Jun 09, 2008 9:26 pm

mattb47 wrote:
Humpback wrote:
ssarmstro wrote:True But where does Melede Moore fit in.... Doesn't he do 3rd downs? Or is he just a kick returner???


Moore is a pretty good 3rd down RB as well, so between him and Mendy, it doesn't look too likely that FWP will get a lot of those touches.


Man...these are the kind of things that will make Parker a flat out steal come draft time next season. I think people are confusing this situation with some other situations where a starter just hadn't been cutting it and new players were brought in to basically replace that guy. Parker was leading the NFL in rushing before he got hurt late in the season...if you think they're not still going to get Parker plenty of touches next season you're just plain wrong. Will he get get the 330+ carries that he had been going for the past couple of years? Probably not, but if you think Parker is going to get fewer than 225-250 carries, I think you're mistaken. The Steelers ran the ball 511 times last season (3rd in the NFL) and Parker averaged around 23 of the 32 carries per game that they had. I would be VERY surprised to see him get fewer than 15 carries per game and even at 15 per game, we're looking at 240 carries next season. Parker showed he could be a very effective yardage back last year, and he has the potential to get in the endzone (look at 2 years ago), but I think you'll see him used extensively between the 20s this season again.

Moore was mainly brought in to help with special teams because our ST has been absolutely awful the past few years and no one really knows to what extent he'll be used on offense as well. I think people need to stop panicking and stop jumping to conclusions on what everyone's role will be next year because I don't think we'll see the Steelers abandon a RB who averaged 1337 yards per season for the past 3 years based on a value pick in the draft that they didn't necessarily anticipate being around.


If you don't think Parker has quite a few question marks, you must be looking at a different situation than I am. He broke his leg. Sure, maybe he's going to be 100%. If he's only 95%, that could be a big difference for someone with speed as his main asset. They drafted who many think was the best RB in the draft. They brought in a 3rd down specialist at RB, who played for Tomlin while at Minny. They gave the goal line carries to a below average RB last year, who they still have as of now. They lost their best run blocking O-lineman to FA. He was leading the league in rushing only because of the number of carries- he had a pedestrian 4.1 ypc.

Let's take a look at your numbers- if we give Parker 250 carries, and we give him his 4.4 career ypc (even though that's declined every single year), that's 1100 yards. He had 2 TDs last year, so to project him for more than 5 this year, while certainly possible, would be too many. His career high in receiving is 222 yards. Let's give him 200, and that's generous given the circumstances.

Where do you think a 1300 total yard, 5 TD RB should be drafted? 3rd, 4th round? How is he a "flat out steal"? Sure, Mendenhall could stink or get hurt, Davenport could be arrested or cut, and Moore could be a non-factor. Maybe they don't bring in someone else if all those things happen. If that's the case, then maybe he'd be worth a late 1st or 2nd round pick. Until then, 3rd or 4th round is about right as a #2 RB. He has #1 upside, but he also has #3 downside.
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Re: Willie Parker

Postby JasonSeahorn » Mon Jun 09, 2008 10:02 pm

People were talking about the same things before this past season with Portis and Betts.

I'm siding with mattb47 in this one. A broken leg is not as bad as ligament damage, which as far as I know FWP does not have. They gave carries to Davenport because FWP was getting overworked. If Stewart is spelling carries, FWP is not overworked. I think they will let the RB that was in that possession stay on the field near the goal line, like how Priest and LJ used to stay in for their respective possessions. And Moore is not there to get 5-10 carries, he is there to help special teams because everyone else the Steelers used to return kicks and punts last year had butter fingers.
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Re: Willie Parker

Postby sappisgod » Tue Jun 10, 2008 1:54 am

JasonSeahorn wrote:People were talking about the same things before this past season with Portis and Betts.

I'm siding with mattb47 in this one. A broken leg is not as bad as ligament damage, which as far as I know FWP does not have. They gave carries to Davenport because FWP was getting overworked. If Stewart is spelling carries, FWP is not overworked. I think they will let the RB that was in that possession stay on the field near the goal line, like how Priest and LJ used to stay in for their respective possessions. And Moore is not there to get 5-10 carries, he is there to help special teams because everyone else the Steelers used to return kicks and punts last year had butter fingers.


Why would you put him in on goalline, with Mendenhall right there to use though? I understand why you'd WANT them to, but I wouldn't understand why the Steelers would throw out a smaller back when Mendenhall is quite good in short yardage. That would be one of the places I think Mendenhall would help, and find his niche (if need be) immediately.
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Re: Willie Parker

Postby JasonSeahorn » Tue Jun 10, 2008 12:20 pm

sappisgod wrote:
Why would you put him in on goalline, with Mendenhall right there to use though? I understand why you'd WANT them to, but I wouldn't understand why the Steelers would throw out a smaller back when Mendenhall is quite good in short yardage. That would be one of the places I think Mendenhall would help, and find his niche (if need be) immediately.


Mendenhall is 1 inch taller and 1 pound heavier than FWP. That doesn't look like a big difference to me.

If the situation turns out like Dallas where Julius Jones was not great at converting short yards and goal line runs while Marion Barber was much better, then I agree the Steelers would use one back over the other in all short yardage situations. We won't really know that until they tell us something or we find out in preseason, so I would guess Tomlin would opt to boost his RBs' confidence by letting them finish a possession if they are the ones who brought the team to the goal line, unless it was an extreme situation like FWP had a 70 yard run and was tackled at the 3, so they would bring in Mendenhall because FWP could be too tired to punch it in. But this situation can happen to almost any running back.
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