Polar Bear wrote:I've always been a RB, RB guy in snake draft leagues. It used to be that it was hard to find a solid running back in the 3rd-4th round. However, the NFL has now changed. There are touchdown vultures and 3rd down vultures and RBBC to worry about. It used to be fantasy owners would only curse at Shanahan's RB rotation on fantasy week, now most of the league has a running back by committee offense. Depending on the league's settings, RB were a disappointment last year. L.J was a bust, Steven Jackson was solid when he wasn't injured, Frank Gore was a bust. Instead the backfield heroes were guys like Adrian Peterson who was drafted in the later rounds, Ryan Grant who was picked up mid-season, Earnest Graham who was also picked up mid-season and even Jamal Lewis who was picked late. Running Backs seem to be the football version of Russian roulette. Every year a top 3 RB pick is a complete bust. The only consistent running back through the years has been LT.
If anything, the RBBC is a reason to pick running backs early so that you don't end up with a guy that runs for 80 yards and no TDs every game. You criticize guys like Peterson, Gore, etc., but they are featured backs in their offenses and will get all the rushing yards and touchdowns (Peterson has some competition, but with his talent, Taylor won't see the field as much next year). If you wait to take a running back until the fourth round, you'll end up with either a touchdown vulture or a between-the-20s back that either gets you no yardage or no touchdowns. And that's if you're lucky
A guy like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady just seems to be a much safer pick, then a guy like Adrian Peterson who has the potential to be amazing and the potential to tear his ACL this first week.
Every single NFL player has the potential to get injured on every single snap they are on the field. Some guy dives at Brady's or Manning's knee, and boom, they're done for the year. Are they injury-prone guys? No (well, Brady always has a sore shoulder
). Yes, Peterson carries SOME injury risk. He's also considered by many to be the most talented back in the league, the next, better version of LT. He could get injured, but the only major injury he's had over the years is his fluke broken collar bone when he dove into the endzone. Peterson could also put up the best fantasy season of any player in the history of fantasy football. He has the ability to do that, and that's why he goes in the top five.
I also think that I will not draft a running back within the first 3 rounds. I am going to go wide receiver in the next couple rounds and then draft a running back. A list of running backs available in the 4th round are: Michael Turner, Ronnie Brown, Rudi Johnson, Brandon Jacobs and Jamal Lewis. Rudi Johnson's ADP is currently in the 10th round which is an absolute steal if you can land him that late.
What kind of leagues are these? Where are you getting these stats? In any competent league, you will not be able to land any single one of those players outside of the third round.
The depth at running back is unprecedented and the lack of depth at the QB position is scary.
I would argue that the opposite is true. Like you said, the NFL is going even more towards RBBCs and touchdown vultures, so there are much fewer LTs, Westbrooks, Steven Jacksons, and Frank Gores that get 90% of their team's rushing production on offense. Conversely, there are a ton of quarterbacks out there that have reasonable floors and high ceilings that I would be happy to have as starters that aren't picked early.
While in years past I have been able to get by with a marginal QB and solid running backs, this year is different. I would prefer to have one of the top 3 QBs. Those three QBs are IMO: Brady, Manning and Romo, in that order. Romo has an ADP of the early 2nd round.
Believe me, so would I. But it's not about getting the best player at each position, it's about building the best team. There are plenty of quarterbacks out there that will at the very least not hurt a team's chances of winning a championship.
After those 3 QBs the quality drops. Brees, Palmer and D. Anderson are next in line. I don't believe Derek Anderson has the same type of year he had last year, Brees has had 2 solid years, but was inconsistent throughout the season last year and Palmer is a big risk considering the loss of Chris Henry and the attitude of Chad Johnson. I'd much rather spend my 1st round pick on Brady, Manning or Romo.
I'll address all of these guys individually:
Anderson - Why? Why won't he have the same type of year as last year? What has changed? I don't see any reason for Anderson's production to go down. The Browns did nothing but add to their offense in the offseason; they signed Donte Stallworth and kept their stellar offensive line in tact. Just saying "I don't think he'll have as good a year" doesn't mean that he's a bad option at QB.
Brees - He did have a pretty rocky start, but he pulled it together beautifully after that, and the Saints eventually got back into contention for a playoff spot. He's a fine quarterback option.
Palmer - He's still one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league and has one of the best one-two combinations of receivers in the league. Johnson is in camp and playing, and he's never let his off-the-field antics affect his on-the-field performance. Houshmandzadeh is great as always, and with your liking for Rudi Johnson, I'm guessing you think their running game is going to rebound. I'm inclined to agree.
And there are plenty of quality starters that you didn't mention. Ben Roethlisberger has had a quarterback rating over 98 in three of his four years in the league. Jay Cutler is getting better and now has some receivers to support Brandon Marshall with Darrell Jackson and Eddie Royal to go along with Brandon Stokley. Kurt Warner emerged thanks to Matt Leinart's poor play, and if he gets the starting job he should be a fine QB option. David Garrard only threw three interceptions last year and the Jags added some receiving options in the offseason. Phillip Rivers, though inconsistent, played amazingly down the stretch last year and has the support of LT, Vincent Jackson, Chris Chambers, and Antonio Gates.
If for some reason I would not be able to get either of the top 3 QBs then I would wait to draft Hasselbeck who I perceive as the 4th best fantasy QB in the league.
Okay, so why not just do this? Why not wait on a quarterback like Hasselbeck, who is going late, instead of burning a first round pick on a quarterback when there are plenty of great running back options available?
Receivers also seem to be inconsistent. Grabbing the consistent wide receivers in the 2nd and 3rd rounds seem to be a great way to go. Reggie Wayne, T.J, Owens and possibly Moss (he has been going in the 1st) are all consistent WRs week to week, especially in a PPR league.
This is true every year. Running backs dominate the first round, but then the receivers start to kick in. But there are also a ton of breakout receivers every year. Greg Jennings, Braylon Edwards, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, Wes Welker, Bobby Engram, Kevin Curtis, Joey Galloway, and Santonio Holmes were all picked outside of the fifth or sixth round last year, and they turned into great options as starting WR1 or WR2s.
This is the approach that I will be taking this year. I think that the days of Running backs dominating the first 2 rounds are over.
I have seen this argument brought forth in every offseason that I've been a member here, and I'm sure more veteran members have seen it many more times than I have. It has never worked. It is discussed every year, especially after a quarterback has a record-breaking season like with Brady or Manning. There are breakout wide receivers and quarterbacks available in later rounds or even out of free agency every year. That is not true for running backs, and that is why they will dominate the first two rounds for years to come.