Fantasy Football Impact Report: Kevin Smith - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Fantasy Football Impact Report: Kevin Smith

Moderator: Football Moderators

Re: Fantasy Football Impact Report: Kevin Smith

Postby footballsimp » Mon Jul 07, 2008 12:10 pm

Azrael wrote:
It's really mostly about offensive line with few exceptions (LT, Barry Sanders). Kevin Smith can have all the vision in the world. It really doesn't matter if it's just used to see guys better that are coming to cream him. If the kid is a full time starter for all 16 games, he's going to get the ball about 15 times per game. That's what Kevin Jones averaged the last 3 years. Give him about 3.7ypc and you got close to 900 yards. Give him about 6 scores. That's what Jones averaged when he was there. So if he's healthy and gets the load I see a max of about 900 and 6. With Martz gone you can figure the catches to go way down. Their defense is horrible. They made an attempt through the draft to improve it but those guys won't have much of an impact this year in particular. So you can expect the Lions to be getting thumped often. The teams in their division all have real good defenses too. Figure them to be throwing alot. While Smith may have the tools to succeed, don't expect him to do that well this year.


Now that is an impact assessment.
Image
footballsimp
Head Coach
Head Coach


Posts: 1290
Joined: 14 Aug 2005
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Fantasy Football Impact Report: Kevin Smith

Postby dream_017 » Mon Jul 07, 2008 12:25 pm

footballsimp wrote:
Azrael wrote:
It's really mostly about offensive line with few exceptions (LT, Barry Sanders). Kevin Smith can have all the vision in the world. It really doesn't matter if it's just used to see guys better that are coming to cream him. If the kid is a full time starter for all 16 games, he's going to get the ball about 15 times per game. That's what Kevin Jones averaged the last 3 years. Give him about 3.7ypc and you got close to 900 yards. Give him about 6 scores. That's what Jones averaged when he was there. So if he's healthy and gets the load I see a max of about 900 and 6. With Martz gone you can figure the catches to go way down. Their defense is horrible. They made an attempt through the draft to improve it but those guys won't have much of an impact this year in particular. So you can expect the Lions to be getting thumped often. The teams in their division all have real good defenses too. Figure them to be throwing alot. While Smith may have the tools to succeed, don't expect him to do that well this year.


Now that is an impact assessment.

Really? With numbers based on an offensive Coordinator that is no longer there and doesn't like to run the ball :-?

I agree more with this portion of it:
Azrael wrote:To me backs in general are overrated. This includes Shaun Alexander. From 2001 to 2005 Shaun ran behind Hutch and Walter Jones and averaged 4.5ypc. In 2006 and 2007 he averaged 3.5ypc without Hutch. It's why Edge ran like wildfire in Indy and why he struggled in AZ. It's why Jamal Lewis can be a 2,000yd back one year and average under 4ypc the next 3 and then look like a stud again the year after that. It's why anyone could pretty much run in Denver for 10 years. That's why Thomas Jones sucked last year and will be a steal this year.
dream_017
Cafe Google
Cafe Google

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 15305
(Past Year: 59)
Joined: 3 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Ford Field: Section - 132; Row - 19; Seat - 11

Re: Fantasy Football Impact Report: Kevin Smith

Postby Azrael » Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:42 pm

From 1999-2003, a period in which Mike Martz was in St. Louis and Marshall Faulk was mostly healthy, Faulk averaged carrying the ball 19-20 times per game and averaged 5ypc. There is a difference between not wanting to run the ball and not being able to run the ball.
Image
Azrael
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 8283
(Past Year: 7)
Joined: 29 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Keeping da cafe sucka free for 9 years straight

Re: Fantasy Football Impact Report: Kevin Smith

Postby dream_017 » Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:53 pm

Azrael wrote:From 1999-2003, a period in which Mike Martz was in St. Louis and Marshall Faulk was mostly healthy, Faulk averaged carrying the ball 19-20 times per game and averaged 5ypc. There is a difference between not wanting to run the ball and not being able to run the ball.

I understand that, but KJ is/was no SJax either. I didn't watch St Louis as close during that time, but there are a number of times over the tenure of Martz with the Lions that he chose to throw rather than run. Of course there were a lot of times that we were down to quick to be able to run, but more often than not there were games that there was no commitment at all to the run or he abandoned the run way too quick.
dream_017
Cafe Google
Cafe Google

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 15305
(Past Year: 59)
Joined: 3 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Ford Field: Section - 132; Row - 19; Seat - 11

Re: Fantasy Football Impact Report: Kevin Smith

Postby Azrael » Mon Jul 07, 2008 3:27 pm

I think it's more compelling that when Martz was able to run the ball at 5 yards a clip his guy was getting it 19-20 times a game and when he was running it at 3.8 they were only getting it 15 times. Generally speaking the teams that have the best average run the ball the most. In 2007 9 of the 14 teams that averaged over 4ypc were in the top half in attempts per game. In 2006 it was 10 of the 15 teams. In 2005 it was 9 of 11 teams. In 2004 it was 13 of 18 and I imagine so on and so forth...
Image
Azrael
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 8283
(Past Year: 7)
Joined: 29 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Keeping da cafe sucka free for 9 years straight

Re: Fantasy Football Impact Report: Kevin Smith

Postby skibrett15 » Mon Jul 07, 2008 3:32 pm

Azrael wrote:I think it's more compelling that when Martz was able to run the ball at 5 yards a clip his guy was getting it 19-20 times a game and when he was running it at 3.8 they were only getting it 15 times. Generally speaking the teams that have the best average run the ball the most. In 2007 9 of the 14 teams that averaged over 4ypc were in the top half in attempts per game. In 2006 it was 10 of the 15 teams. In 2005 it was 9 of 11 teams. In 2004 it was 13 of 18 and I imagine so on and so forth...

yep, and I think you'll see frank gore this year with 20+ attempts per game. The lions won't have a running game unless their line improves. If you guys think gosder cherilus and some new coaches are going to improve them, then move on Kevin smith, but I think it's pretty obvious that the line is the limiting factor there.
ADMIN edit: please note that the overall sig limit is 12k - thanks!
(Thanks Leber)
AIM is like multiplayer notepad
skibrett15
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle Eye
Posts: 5057
Joined: 17 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: At the Mafia Cafe

Re: Fantasy Football Impact Report: Kevin Smith

Postby dream_017 » Mon Jul 07, 2008 3:52 pm

skibrett15 wrote:yep, and I think you'll see frank gore this year with 20+ attempts per game. The lions won't have a running game unless their line improves. If you guys think gosder cherilus and some new coaches are going to improve them, then move on Kevin smith, but I think it's pretty obvious that the line is the limiting factor there.

Really? Where is the SF o-line ranked? From the site I posted in the o-line rankings it is 23rd. That is not Martz material. He will abandon the run in a second if he even thinks he can't run the ball. I am in no way saying the Lions are in any better shape and never said that they will be better with a new OC or having K Smith. The Lions line has been horrible and still is, but when Martz gave KJ the touches he performed well, but again there were a number of times that he abandodned the run...even with the score in striking distance.
dream_017
Cafe Google
Cafe Google

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 15305
(Past Year: 59)
Joined: 3 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Ford Field: Section - 132; Row - 19; Seat - 11

Re: Fantasy Football Impact Report: Kevin Smith

Postby Azrael » Mon Jul 07, 2008 4:26 pm

dream_017 wrote:
skibrett15 wrote:yep, and I think you'll see frank gore this year with 20+ attempts per game. The lions won't have a running game unless their line improves. If you guys think gosder cherilus and some new coaches are going to improve them, then move on Kevin smith, but I think it's pretty obvious that the line is the limiting factor there.

Really? Where is the SF o-line ranked? From the site I posted in the o-line rankings it is 23rd. That is not Martz material. He will abandon the run in a second if he even thinks he can't run the ball. I am in no way saying the Lions are in any better shape and never said that they will be better with a new OC or having K Smith. The Lions line has been horrible and still is, but when Martz gave KJ the touches he performed well, but again there were a number of times that he abandodned the run...even with the score in striking distance.


I think whether SF O-line is great or not is negligible in so far as what Gore's production will be. Under Martz he will still A. Score TDs and B. Catch alot of balls for bonus receiving yards. Before he was hurt, Jones was a very viable fantasy back even in the Lions offense. Even coming back from the Lisfranc injury last year he posted some respectable #'s in the 10 games he started. If used like KJ was used Kevin Smith could be a startable fantasy back. But expectations are that the Lions will have a "more balanced" offense, which I think will actually hurt his production.
Image
Azrael
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 8283
(Past Year: 7)
Joined: 29 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Keeping da cafe sucka free for 9 years straight

Re: Fantasy Football Impact Report: Kevin Smith

Postby moochman » Tue Jul 08, 2008 11:48 am

Bear in mind that much of what I am about to say is influenced by my positivity as a new season approaches. This usually strengthens right up to when the Lions lay their first turd on the field. About 10 minutes into exhibition game 1 should curb my enthusiasm.

That said, I think the Lions O-line might play better this year for the simple fact that if the run game will be stressed. Any one that has ever played OL knows that it is much easier to run block than pass block. This line might be able to open up enough of a hole for Bell or Smith to slide through. What keeps me from jumping on the visions of Smith having a great impact stems parially from his lack of tools (his great vision may only translate into him knowing who hit him) and what looks to be another very poor defensive team that Lions have assembled. I have visions of falling behind early and having to abandon the run.
Image


I think, therefore I am. I think fantasy, therefore I am unreal?
moochman
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterSurvival Of The Fittest WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 16300
(Past Year: 80)
Joined: 20 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Living in the shame only a Lions fan knows

Re: Fantasy Football Impact Report: Kevin Smith

Postby TheMaizeAndBlue » Tue Jul 29, 2008 10:48 pm

Another Lions fan here clouded by optimism, but, I will say, the Lions offensive line is not as bad as it appears. Yeah, they gave up alot of sacks, but most lines would if they were forced to pass protect while their QB goes back in a 7 step drop as his receivers run long developing routes downfield. I expect to see a serious improvement in the run game at detroit this year. I'm guessing 950 yards and 7-8 TDs for Kevin Smith.

Also, on the topic of Frank Gore, if Marshall Faulk got 19-20 carries per game while averaging 5 ypc? What makes you think Gore will get 20+? He certainly is not a better player than Marshall Faulk was.
TheMaizeAndBlue
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 714
Joined: 18 Jul 2008
Home Cafe: Football

PreviousNext

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 22:22 hours
(and 41 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact