IDP (lack of) repeatability

[The Lung]

I'm not much into IDP leagues. I am commissioner of one re-draft league where for the past five years we have picked one IDP player, and that's it. I learned early on however that reaching to the mid-rounds to draft last year's IDP stud was foolish and I usually ended up dumping him mid-season anyway.

Here's a good article from SportingNews which uses hard data to show why. Like kickers and defenses, rarely do last year's IDP leaders repeat the following year.

From: http://fantasy.sportingnews.com/nfl/experts/rob-hurtt/20080706.html

Why can't you just pick defensive players based off last year's stats? Consider:

• Of the 12 defensive linemen with at least 10 sacks last year, only Aaron Kampman and Jason Taylor reached double digits the previous season.
• Of the 13 linebackers with at least 120 total tackles last year, five had done it the previous season. Another three were rookies.
• Of the eight DBs with at least 93 total tackles, only Sean Jones and Sammy Knight had more than 70 in '06.

The top three in sacks last year -- Jared Allen (15.5), Patrick Kerney (14.5) and Mario Williams (14) -- had a combined 16.5 sacks in '06. In fact, Allen led the league despite being suspended for two games. His move to Minnesota could affect his production, however. Again, don't be in a hurry to get your No. 1.

Don't chase interceptions. Of the seven defensive backs with at least six interceptions last year, only Ed Reed and Asante Samuel had more than three the previous season.

[portisfan24]

Ya I thought I was being sneaky last year taking Shawne Merriman in the 9th round of my draft. (We also draft one DL/LB and one DB) Needless to say I dropped him pretty early in the season.

[knapplc]

So... people who have been in IDP leagues for a while... are IDP harder to project than OFF players? I'm starting an IDP draft here at the Cafe and it's tough finding good resources for projections. Any insight?

[m16a]

So... people who have been in IDP leagues for a while... are IDP harder to project than OFF players? I'm starting an IDP draft here at the Cafe and it's tough finding good resources for projections. Any insight?

I would tend to think they are harder to predict for a number of reasons.

One, despite a growing surge in the last year or so, IDP leagues are still a HUGE minority, so with such a minority, major fantasy sites are less inclined to devote time and effort to a resource that a small portion of there subscribers would use.

Two, I believe its also because defense as a whole is more up and down than offense. On offense, teams have establish stars and established crap players on the team just because they have to. The team is never going to trade that star, whereas on defense, where there are not as many huge statistical players, a trade or movement of a "better" player would not hurt them hugely, since as a whole, a defense should be functioning as a unit, not a few statistical whores.

Three, getting defensive stats is fairly luck based. Ok, now I know madden NFL is a terrible correlation to real football, but in this case, it actually works out. As a QB or HB, I can rack up huge amounts of yards, but as a DB or an LB, I get a fraction of stats. Why? Because as a QB or HB I'm a main player, as a DB or LB, I'm one of 11 players who can make the sack, tackle, fumble recovery or interception, to top it off, I also need to be in the right place at the right time. With that being said, the fact that the statistical chance of the defensive player being in the right place is less than the offensive player.(Base offensive set, 2TE, 2WR, 1RB, 1QB, six players to garner the stat as opposed to 11) thats a better chance of being in the right place than the defensive players.

Ok thats enough from me, I hope that makes sense to you, since it makes sense to me.

[Dan Lambskin]

So... people who have been in IDP leagues for a while... are IDP harder to project than OFF players? I'm starting an IDP draft here at the Cafe and it's tough finding good resources for projections. Any insight?

i think for the most part it's a crapshoot, especally DL and DB. i play in a 32 team league that uses IDP so i scrape the ground beneath the bottom of the barrerl

DL - probably the biggest crap shoot, sacks are so hard to project. like i said, i play in a deeper league but i usually just tend to wait and go after DT's because they'll get some fairly consistent tackle numbers

DB - SS and bad CB's (or CB's on with bad run stopping DL) are usually who i target, the CB's because they will get challenged a lot more and have a chance to INT or at least tackle the guy

LB - is probably the most consistent (aside from injury). i usually look for a guy who's had good stats the last few years on the same team, same position, OR a guy taking over for a guy like that (i.e a new WLB in the Tampa 2)

Footballguys.com has a fairly deep (60 players?) IDP rankings, i think FantasyFootball.com does too

[shawngee03]

i went to footballguys.com and it has exactly what i needed, projections for each type of IDP. my question is as im going through them i see that the url is this...http://subscribers.footballguys.com/200 ... roj-de.php

it has 'subscribers' in it. is it free now but will be a pay site closer to teh season? if nobody knows no big deal, i can still copy/paste now i guess