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Rookie RBs: High-risk, high-reward

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Rookie RBs: High-risk, high-reward

Postby The Lung » Wed Jul 09, 2008 2:50 pm

From: http://www.kffl.com/article.php/90908/512

High-risk, high-reward: Running backs
July 8, 2008

By Cory J. Bonini
Edited by Tim Heaney

The rookie running back crop typically produces several candidates poised for fantasy success in their first season. The risk involved in drafting these players to your fantasy squad is far less than counting on anyone in the group of rookie quarterbacks, but that doesn't mean that some danger doesn't follow the tailbacks.

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Re: Rookie RBs: High-risk, high-reward

Postby Humpback » Thu Jul 10, 2008 9:15 am

These are fun to look at, but I'm not sure what he means by "reward". I think most of the rookies have high reward, if the starters in front of them get injured for instance. There's obviously not a great chance of that happening (so they should be high risk), but take a guy like Mendy for instance. If Parker goes down, I think his reward is better than "low to moderate". Same with Rice, Torain, etc.
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Re: Rookie RBs: High-risk, high-reward

Postby biju » Thu Jul 10, 2008 9:58 am

Humpback wrote:These are fun to look at, but I'm not sure what he means by "reward". I think most of the rookies have high reward, if the starters in front of them get injured for instance. There's obviously not a great chance of that happening (so they should be high risk), but take a guy like Mendy for instance. If Parker goes down, I think his reward is better than "low to moderate". Same with Rice, Torain, etc.


I think he means reward relative to IF you draft him and there are no major injuries that force said player into action. All backups/rookies carry a "high" reward if they get playing time, but since injury is difficult to predict I think you just have to assume *nobody* will get injured and work from there. But then again, I didn't write the article so maybe he really thinks Torain getting starter carries would still be a "low" reward.

:-?
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Re: Rookie RBs: High-risk, high-reward

Postby Azrael » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:25 am

You can say the same thing about a back up as well getting injured. "If" Parker gets injured then he will be good. But then you are assuming Mendenhall won't get injured as well.
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Re: Rookie RBs: High-risk, high-reward

Postby moochman » Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:38 am

I think they aren't giving Slaton credit for the opportunity he has and his skill set. It wouldn't be a shock to see him get the bulk of the work once Brown and Green start to fade. For them that should be weeks 3-6. Once they are out Slaton could be there only real option.
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Re: Rookie RBs: High-risk, high-reward

Postby Humpback » Thu Jul 10, 2008 1:33 pm

Yeah, tough to tell what he means.

I see what you're saying about the chances of those things happening not being great, but doesn't that belong in the "risk" category, not "reward"? I think of risk as the chance of not putting up big numbers (based on competition, talent, reps, situation, projected performance, etc.) and reward as upside (best case scenario). Mendy has high risk because he's not likely to get the bulk of the reps this year, but he also has high reward if he does end up getting them for whatever reason (injury, holdout, outperformance, etc).

He must be talking about the projected production as it looks today, not the upside should things go their way.
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Re: Rookie RBs: High-risk, high-reward

Postby biju » Thu Jul 10, 2008 1:37 pm

Humpback wrote:Yeah, tough to tell what he means.

I see what you're saying about the chances of those things happening not being great, but doesn't that belong in the "risk" category, not "reward"? I think of risk as the chance of not putting up big numbers (based on competition, talent, reps, situation, projected performance, etc.) and reward as upside (best case scenario). Mendy has high risk because he's not likely to get the bulk of the reps this year, but he also has high reward if he does end up getting them for whatever reason (injury, holdout, outperformance, etc).

He must be talking about the projected production as it looks today, not the upside should things go their way.


For that matter, "risk" is completely relative to their ADP and when you draft them. Stewart in the 1st round is a huge risk, but if you happened to grab him in round 10 (of course, I would say why did you pass on him past round 5 :-D ) he has nearly zero risk.

It's too bad the writer didn't define these properties.
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Re: Rookie RBs: High-risk, high-reward

Postby Polar Bear » Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:18 am

Well I don't see many of these RBs being high risk simply due to where they are being drafted. Outside of 2 or 3, most are going as RB3 or even RB4. So if they hit then great, if not, big deal.
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Re: Rookie RBs: High-risk, high-reward

Postby LS2throwed » Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:58 am

I disagree with some of the "reward" on these backs...Chris Johnson in a PPR league, has a FAR higher reward then low to moderate, he has a chance to be something really special...Even if you put his value as a best case scenario somewhere between Westbrook, and Chris Perry a few years ago, thats alot better then a low reward...Same goes for Torrain, his risk is very low, and reward has a higher ceiling because of the system he plays in, for all we know he could be the starter going into next year, all it takes is one injury.
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