Who are the safest players? - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Who are the safest players?

Moderator: Football Moderators

Who are the safest players?

Postby Inukchuk » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:03 am

I'm not necessarily wondering who the best guys are, but I'd like to get an idea of who you think are the safest bets to produce their projected numbers (or better). It seems like so many guys underproduce each year for various reasons, and there are red flags everywhere regarding injury, age, committee, coaching philosophy, etc.

Who do you think has the least amount of risk? I'm wondering more about RB and WR than QB...

Here are some of my safer players:

Marshawn Lynch is young and has no competition for his job. He missed a few games last year, but I can see him being a very secure play this season.

MBIII is a near lock to improve on his numbers from last year (which weren't bad in the first place). The time share hurts, but now he's the main man and Felix is unproven.

Anyone else you guys can think of? What do you think of those 2?
Inukchuk
Water Boy
Water Boy


Posts: 93
Joined: 24 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Who are the safest players?

Postby aaawall91 » Sun Jul 20, 2008 2:45 pm

I think the two you named aren't safest simply because of two catches.

Lynch: He was a rookie, there is the flash-in-a-pan-phenomenon. I don't belive it will happen to Lynch and I belive he is the real deal, but it does knock him down a peg or two that he has only done it once.

MB3: He lost JJ, and will have a larger role in the offense. We don't know if his body will be able to take it and be as efficient as he was later in games when defenses were tired and he wasn't and could run them over.

My Safest players:
Brady - may not repeat but is still a lock to be top 3 QB
Peyton - this guy screams consistency
Brees - No reason for a decline, no major changes he's been doing it for years.
Addai - most consistent offense in the league
Wayne - same deal
LT - has the skills and the mindset to achieve (also hasn't hit the age roadblock yet)
McGahee- he produced well in a horrid offense last year, and now has Cam Cameron
Portis- has put up nice numbers almost every year of his young career so far

There's just a few.
aaawall91
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 9934
(Past Year: 62)
Joined: 15 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: East Lansing

Re: Who are the safest players?

Postby thriftyrocker » Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:38 pm

aaawall91 wrote:McGahee- he produced well in a horrid offense last year, and now has Cam Cameron
Portis- has put up nice numbers almost every year of his young career so far


I think both these guys have the "been healthy for too long" jinx. They don't have the "never get injured" gift, but have gone 2 or 3 years with no major/season-ending type things.

I think MJD is a safe pick. Young, not much mileage, ramping up his touches gradually. For a #2, a ton of upside and little risk.
Image
thriftyrocker
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterCafe Musketeer
Posts: 7323
(Past Year: 2)
Joined: 18 May 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Bala Cynwyd, PA

Re: Who are the safest players?

Postby LS2throwed » Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:49 pm

aaawall91 wrote:MB3: He lost JJ, and will have a larger role in the offense. We don't know if his body will be able to take it and be as efficient as he was later in games when defenses were tired and he wasn't and could run them over.



I gotta at least disagree with the reasoning, he lost JJ? Seriously? JJ has been a non factor for 2 years now, any Dallas fan can tell you that...There is nothing that JJ provided last year to consider that Barber would be losing anything, in fact he gained something just by grabbing Felix Jones which is the perfect fit...JJ is a back who needs 25+ carries to get going, he doesn't operate well with 10-12, so he struggled pretty much the entire year, his YPC was 3.6, in comparison Lendale White's was 3.7...Pretty much whoever they picked up in the draft would make Barber's job easier because he's not being asked to be a feature back...He has never had an injury up to this point, he's in a high scoring offense getting all his goal line TD's, I don't think you can get much safer...He isn't being asked to carry the ball much more then last year, only difference is he will start games off, but I wouldn't expect him to see 25 carries more then a few times next year.



I also agree with MJD being a very safe pick, along with some of the more obvious; Reggie Wayne, Peyton Manning, LT, and a few others.
Image
Current Cafe Dynasties:
4th and Goal
Fourth & Inches
Double D
Any Given Dynasty
Eat Cheese Dynasty
NFL's Finest
Cafe Very Special Forces
LS2throwed
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterCafe Musketeer
Posts: 5373
Joined: 21 Sep 2006
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Arlington, Texas

Re: Who are the safest players?

Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:21 am

LS2throwed wrote:
aaawall91 wrote:MB3: He lost JJ, and will have a larger role in the offense. We don't know if his body will be able to take it and be as efficient as he was later in games when defenses were tired and he wasn't and could run them over.



I gotta at least disagree with the reasoning, he lost JJ? Seriously? JJ has been a non factor for 2 years now, any Dallas fan can tell you that...There is nothing that JJ provided last year to consider that Barber would be losing anything, in fact he gained something just by grabbing Felix Jones which is the perfect fit...JJ is a back who needs 25+ carries to get going, he doesn't operate well with 10-12, so he struggled pretty much the entire year, his YPC was 3.6, in comparison Lendale White's was 3.7...Pretty much whoever they picked up in the draft would make Barber's job easier because he's not being asked to be a feature back...He has never had an injury up to this point, he's in a high scoring offense getting all his goal line TD's, I don't think you can get much safer...He isn't being asked to carry the ball much more then last year, only difference is he will start games off, but I wouldn't expect him to see 25 carries more then a few times next year.



I also agree with MJD being a very safe pick, along with some of the more obvious; Reggie Wayne, Peyton Manning, LT, and a few others.


The other thing I like about Barber is that the Cowboys should be giving him more touches later in the season if they are in a playoff race. He's the best RB on the team, and Felix Jones might be getting worn out by Week 14 or so....
buffalobillsrul2002
Defensive Assistant
Defensive Assistant


Posts: 635
Joined: 17 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Who are the safest players?

Postby Bobbleheadrusty » Mon Jul 21, 2008 2:04 am

Well obviously it comes down to position. Your QB is usually the safest player on you team, as they have a lower injury rate then your RBs and usually don't see their numbers fall off as drastically from season to season as other players. If you can get a top 5 QB you can be pretty sure that their numbers will fall in the predicted range. (My theory has always been that an elite QB will let you take risk elsewhere on your roster). The only top guys I worry about are Bulger, Garcia and Garrard, and they arent costing you a high pick.

WR are less injury prone then RBs as well, but often can take a sudden dip due to factors beyond their control, like a QB injury, an injury to one of the other WRs on their team (more double coverage or worst matchups) or the emergence of a legit threat opposite, which might not make them worse, but can lower their touches. For safe picks look for guys with proven QBs and a pretty set WR package or guys who have proven it in the same offense for a number of years. So looking at the top 20 WRs last year I would say the risky guys are Marshall (no track record before last year, changing WR corp, injury), Roddy White (ditto on track record, rookie QB), Gonzalez (Harrison should return), Engram (unproven running game, loss of Hackett), Mason (age, QB issues), Driver (duh), Burress (pissy about contract, but I risk Im taking)


RBs are the most obvious as injuries seem to decimate the elites every year. For safety sake Im looking for the following: No recent knee problems (tend to linger), no big changes on the OL, under 30, solid 3rd down back (no wearing down) and no Mike Martz.

Obviously a guy like LT is a must have, but among the top 20 last year Im avoiding (unless there is value in the pick) AP (no track record, injury history, bad QB), Lewis/James/Jones (lines lost guys, age), Taylor (will he lose more carries to MJD, though to be honest I like him where he is being drafted), Willie Parker (loss of Faneca, injury, Mendenhall), Lynch (no track record, injury problems, criminal problems), Gore (Duh), LenDale and Fargas (rookies stealing carries?), Jacobs (injuries, Bradshaw), Graham (Caddy, track record) and Grant (track record, Favre?).



Again, Im not saying Im not drafting the riskier guys, but Im gonna try to pair them with less risky backups and compliments. For example, if I take LenDale as my RB2 (he is in my keeper) I'm gonna make sure to carry an extra RB in case his injury problems or competition turn him to crap.
Bobbleheadrusty
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff


Posts: 282
Joined: 31 Mar 2008
Home Cafe: Baseball


Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 16:47 hours
(and 34 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact