I'm not sure what to think of him this year. My gut tells me he'll outplay his ranking, which seems to be pretty consistently around #15. Obviously, there are QB questions and Fitz on the other side, but what type of numbers do you see Boldin putting up?
I'm not great at projections - for what it's worth, Footballguys.com have him ranked at #12 with a projection of 1,136 yds/7 TD's on 71 receptions; Rotowire has him at #15 with a projection of 1,123 yds/9 TDs on 84 receptions.
Those seem pretty reasonable compared to last year's 853 yds/9 TD's on 71 receptions considering he missed 4 games. He was second in the NFL in catching 72% of everything thrown to him. He had 15 red zone looks compared to Fitz's 17 (in 15 games) - but Bryant Johnson also had 17 red zone looks and he's gone this year, so unless Breaston or Doucet turn out to be a really solid #3, both Boldin and Fitz could see more work.
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When it comes to guys like Boldin(or Fitz for that matter) the QB doesn't matter nearly as much as other QB's...Boldin can make things happen with the ball in his hands, short routes, slants, he's deadly when he has the ball, and he could easily outplay his rankings, for where he is going he is actually great value...Those predicitions look right, but he still is a guy with potential for 100/1300/10 in any given season, he showed his guts last year coming back from a knee injury, toe injury, wasn't supposed to play, team was out of playoff contention, and he strapped it up and had an incredible game with 13 receptions, 162 yds and 2 scores, this was banged up...It has only been 3 years removed from his 100/1400/7 season, and he has only gotten better and stronger since then...I like his chances and he is holding good value this off-season, especially when you consider Fitz is going 2 rounds earlier, and so are alot of other WR's that Boldin could outscore...He will produce no matter who is at the helm, he's a very consistent Wr, he gets nicked up more then Fitzgerald does but he's one of the game's best.
Hard to believe a guy this polished and physical at WR was a former QB, back when he was playing both positions at FSU.
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Boldin is one of the players I look at and think he seems to still have more realizable upside. Losing Johnson will help him in the redzone and the maturing of Lienart should help the offence gain consistancy. I think he is very good value for where he is taken. 80/1,000/10 are not unlikely.
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moochman
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Big time yardage and an outstanding player, but he is always second in line when it comes to the TD department. What is career high, 8 TDs in a season? That is with multiple 100 catch seasons by the way. WR upside is really capped when there is really very little chance you will see double digit TDs.
That said, Boldin is almost surely a WR2 in fantasy because he is so good at making catches and getting involved each week. In PPR leagues Boldin is much more valuable than in standard league.
I think Boldin is a lock for at least 80 rec. I'd say he's at 90 rec, 1,200 yards, and 8 TD's at the end of the year. With the potential for much more than that. He's money is ppr leagues, and yardage leagues as well. He's a borderline #1 WR IMO.
I absolutely love Boldin. He is one of my favorite players in the game and an elite WR talent. But he does come with some significant risk. He is basically a RB when he gets his hands on the ball, which leads to injuries, as alluded to above. His career high in TD's is 9, which is good but not great, but that was also set last year despite his season being truncated due to injuries. He has assumed Hines Ward's old role in the Whisenhunt offense and it certainly led to him seeing a few more opportunities in the red-zone last year. Love him as a #2, would be OK with him as a #1 if I filled other positions first. If he can stay healthy he should post Top-10 numbers with ease.
Ordinarily I would just chalk that up as a negotiating ploy but when you consider the pathetic ownership of the Cards you could almost see them changing their minds about previously discussed contract plans. I hope Boldin and Arizona can come to some peace and line up eady to play come the opener.
I wonder what the absence of Boldin would do to Fitz, Edge, etal.?
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moochman
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He's under contract for 3 more seasons and he said he's going to play out his deal then move on. A lot can happen in 3 years, I wouldn't change anyone's rankings at this point.