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Anthony Gonzalez vs. Reggie Wayne vs. Marvin Harrison

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Anthony Gonzalez vs. Reggie Wayne vs. Marvin Harrison

Postby skibrett15 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 11:22 pm

The colts have a good passing offense with a good line, and a real running threat to take double coverage off of receivers. I think manning is primed for a great year and I think his big 3 weapons will be his receivers. Dallas clark will get his, but I think Gonzalez is option 2a or 1b and clark is either 2b or 3.

If we assume that the colts passing offense isn't ravaged by injuries once again to the point where moorehead is starting opposite reggie wayne, I have a hard time believing that wayne won't regress to something like 1200 yards and 7-8 TDs.
Gonzalez showed after his injury that he was a very [url="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GonzAn00_games.htm"]legitimate threat[/url] with harrison out.
Dallas clark's 11 TDs have career year written all over it, and so does Wayne's 1500 yards

So basically I have two points to make:
1) Reggie wayne is a top 15 receiver, maybe top 10. He is not top 3.

2) Anthony Gonzalez has a pretty legitimate shot at 1100 yards and 9 TDs. If harrison goes down I can see 1300/11 for both wayne and gonzalez.
Otherwise I think harrison is around the same as the other two, and that comes down to manning's tendency to find the open guy and spread the ball around when he can.

If we assume manning goes for 4200/30 which he does with alarming regularity, how do you see the breakdown?
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Re: Anthony Gonzalez vs. Reggie Wayne vs. Marvin Harrison

Postby Dr. Duran Duran » Tue Jul 22, 2008 1:29 am

Assuming Harrison plays this year, this is how I see the breakdown...

Marvin Harrison 1,000 yards 7 touchdowns
Reggie Wayne 1,300 yards 9 touchdowns
Anthony Gonzalez 800 yards 5 touchdowns
Dallas Clark 600 yards 8 touchdowns
Others (Tamme, Addai, etc...) 500 yards 4 touchdowns

If Marvin plays, he will get 1,000 yards. If he misses time, all bets are off and you'll see the three major players get a spike in production, especially Gonzo. Gonzalez had a very solid second half and followed it up with a great playoff game against San Diego. Manning really started trusting him more and it showed. On long plays, Gonzalez will be the target, with Wayne and Clark catching the more intermediate passes.
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Re: Anthony Gonzalez vs. Reggie Wayne vs. Marvin Harrison

Postby Bobbleheadrusty » Tue Jul 22, 2008 3:32 am

skibrett15 wrote:The colts have a good passing offense with a good line, and a real running threat to take double coverage off of receivers. I think manning is primed for a great year and I think his big 3 weapons will be his receivers. Dallas clark will get his, but I think Gonzalez is option 2a or 1b and clark is either 2b or 3.

If we assume that the colts passing offense isn't ravaged by injuries once again to the point where moorehead is starting opposite reggie wayne, I have a hard time believing that wayne won't regress to something like 1200 yards and 7-8 TDs.
Gonzalez showed after his injury that he was a very [url="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GonzAn00_games.htm"]legitimate threat[/url] with harrison out.
Dallas clark's 11 TDs have career year written all over it, and so does Wayne's 1500 yards

So basically I have two points to make:
1) Reggie wayne is a top 15 receiver, maybe top 10. He is not top 3.

2) Anthony Gonzalez has a pretty legitimate shot at 1100 yards and 9 TDs. If harrison goes down I can see 1300/11 for both wayne and gonzalez.
Otherwise I think harrison is around the same as the other two, and that comes down to manning's tendency to find the open guy and spread the ball around when he can.

If we assume manning goes for 4200/30 which he does with alarming regularity, how do you see the breakdown?


Considering that Wayne went for 1300 and 9 in 2006, in a year where he wasn't the true #1 until part way through the season (and basically sat out half the game the last two weeks) and averaged like 85 yards a game last season when Harrison was still playing I have a hard time seeing the downside you predict. Even if Marvin is healthy Wayne has established himself as the top target. Hell in 2006 he and Harrison were 2-3 in the league in receiving yards and still only had about 60% of the total team yardage.

I would love to see who you rank above Wayne this season? Is there anyone you can count on to score more outside of Moss (assuming Manning starts week 1 of course) Who would you put up in your top 3?
TO (older, and with almost as many similar weapons)? Edwards (lesser unproven QB, again with just as many guys needing touches)? Fitz and Boldin (QB issues and each other)? Welker (Moss)? Holt (older, Bulger coming off a mediocre year)? Colston? Coles and Cotchery? Housh and C. Johnson? Burress?

Maybe he is top 10? I would love to play in a league with you...
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Re: Anthony Gonzalez vs. Reggie Wayne vs. Marvin Harrison

Postby footballsimp » Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:06 am

Reggie Wayne is a top 5 WR, no doubt about it.

I think it is too early to speculate how Gonzalez and Harrison do. It is something I will pay attention to during training camp.
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Re: Anthony Gonzalez vs. Reggie Wayne vs. Marvin Harrison

Postby SLAMLLC » Tue Jul 22, 2008 9:13 am

Wayne is scary good. If you watched the last regular season game the Colts played last year you know what I mean. Wayne needed a bunch of catches to be the league leader in receptions or yards I can't remember. Manning through him 9 straight passes. 9 straight to get what he needed. He was basically uncoverable. I believe Manning knows he can throw him the ball on any play and Wayne will be open. How that turns into a receiver dropping down to 15th? I don't see it at all. I will also add I have no interest in picking up Harrison in a redraft league this year. Gonzo is a good talent and a great slot guy. Think of Wayne as the fastball, Harrison as the Curve, Clark is the slider, and Gonzo is the change up. Gonzo's role is to keep the defense off balance for the strike out. Gonzo is going to be about 750-800 yards this year IMO.
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Re: Anthony Gonzalez vs. Reggie Wayne vs. Marvin Harrison

Postby bungle613 » Tue Jul 22, 2008 9:20 am

I can't assume all healthwise will be good in Indy.

Based on 4000 and 30 for Manning.

Wayne playing a near full season as the #1 - 1300 and 12
Gonzalez playing nearly a full year as # 2 - 1000 and 6
Harrison has no knees and will not play much at all - 300 and 1
Clark 650 and 6
Others - 800 and 5

It is my opinion and opinion only that Marvin won't be able to play.
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Re: Anthony Gonzalez vs. Reggie Wayne vs. Marvin Harrison

Postby LS2throwed » Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:42 am

SLAMLLC wrote:Wayne is scary good. If you watched the last regular season game the Colts played last year you know what I mean. Wayne needed a bunch of catches to be the league leader in receptions or yards I can't remember. Manning through him 9 straight passes. 9 straight to get what he needed. He was basically uncoverable. I believe Manning knows he can throw him the ball on any play and Wayne will be open. How that turns into a receiver dropping down to 15th? I don't see it at all. I will also add I have no interest in picking up Harrison in a redraft league this year. Gonzo is a good talent and a great slot guy. Think of Wayne as the fastball, Harrison as the Curve, Clark is the slider, and Gonzo is the change up. Gonzo's role is to keep the defense off balance for the strike out. Gonzo is going to be about 750-800 yards this year IMO.




Exact, people that have Wayne rated outside of their top 5 are underrating the chemistry Wayne & Manning have...Manning is so accurate, and Wayne is so quick and runs precise routes, its literally an unstoppable combination...I've seen them complete routes that were covered and not open, but Manning places the ball directly in his chest on a rope and Wayne catches everything thrown his way...Thats why I rate him so highly, there isn't another WR-QB combo that tops it in the NFL and the upside is still there.
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Re: Anthony Gonzalez vs. Reggie Wayne vs. Marvin Harrison

Postby skibrett15 » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:32 pm

I think you guys have this "chemistry" confused with "necessity"
Manning wouldn't be throwing these ropes into tight coverage if he has other options on the field. With all 3, or at least wayne, clark and gonzalez Manning is gonna spread it around like he did with Harrison, Stokley and Wayne. I think Clark's numbers are definitely dropping, at least in TDs.

Reggie wayne is gonna get a lot more coverage attention due to great success last year, especially within the division. Gonzo is the guy I want to own. I really see no reason why Gonzo and Wayne don't end the season with almost identical numbers. They're the two top wideouts barring a harrison renaissance for a QB who will not force it to anyone. This isn't jake delhomme and steve smith. Manning will get it to gonzalez as much as wayne because he can keep the defense honest that way.

Look at DD and greg jennings. Equal production because they help each other. I think it's a similar situation except we aren't going to see that strange disparity in TDs that DD/Jennings had.
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Re: Anthony Gonzalez vs. Reggie Wayne vs. Marvin Harrison

Postby SLAMLLC » Tue Jul 22, 2008 1:20 pm

Gonzo is the guy I want to own. I really see no reason why Gonzo and Wayne don't end the season with almost identical numbers.


If you are picking a WR and 4 have gone off the board and you have the option of Gonzo and Wayne you are taking Gonzo? Or were you saying that you think both should be availible at WR15? like in your first post? If they are both there at WR 15 you take Gonzo? I have come up with some pretty crazy ideas on here before, but man that is pretty out there.

Two years ago most were already calling the decline of Harrison in Indy statistically. Wayne was to be the new WR1. Well one way or another (I think even barring injury last year) he would have been the most productive receiver in Indy. I understand Harrison will keep the WR#1 title out of respect. With all of the injuries (especially to Harrison) Wayne saw more double coverages than ever. He was still always open. Drop him to 15th? Harrison is already not looking good for camps and possibly the start of the season. With this outlook even if he recovers enough to play a majority of the games, I won't hold my breath for 1000 yards being a possibility in 2008.

First of all if Harrison plays most of the season it will be, "Gonzo who?" If Harrison misses alot of the season Gonzo is no more than a good WR# 3 on my fantasy team for 2008. IMHO
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Re: Anthony Gonzalez vs. Reggie Wayne vs. Marvin Harrison

Postby JasonSeahorn » Tue Jul 22, 2008 1:35 pm

SLAMLLC wrote:
Gonzo is the guy I want to own. I really see no reason why Gonzo and Wayne don't end the season with almost identical numbers.


If you are picking a WR and 4 have gone off the board and you have the option of Gonzo and Wayne you are taking Gonzo? Or were you saying that you think both should be availible at WR15? like in your first post? If they are both there at WR 15 you take Gonzo? I have come up with some pretty crazy ideas on here before, but man that is pretty out there.



I think it was easily implied that he'd rather have Gonzo instead of Wayne based on where Wayne is being drafted and where Gonzo is being drafted, I.E. he'd rather take one of the other stud WRs instead of Wayne if given a chance, and he'd take Gonzo instead of other WRs ranked near Gonzo.

Wayne IMO won't exceed the 1500 yards he got last year. If Harrison doesn't play much, Wayne could approach 1500 (I'm thinking 1300-1400 is more likely). If Harrison does play the full season, I don't see Wayne getting more than 1300 yards. For TDs, I can see 10 or 11 if there is no Harrison, but if Harrison plays the full season, I'm expecting 7-9 TDs for Wayne.

Peyton loves Harrison and his dual tight ends when they are in the red zone, and lately has been looking to the running backs as well. Brady has always been the one associated with spreading the ball, but Peyton does it just as much, if not even more so. It's just that Peyton's passing skills are so absurd he can make anyone look like a star.

If Harrison plays the whole season, I'm expecting him and Wayne to each approach 9 TDs (maybe one of them breaks 10), with Gonzo getting 5-6 TDs and the rest of the TDs being split up by the tight ends and running backs. If Harrison doesn't play, I see Wayne getting 10-11 as I stated before, with Gonzo getting 8 TDs, but I think the tight ends and the running backs will see the biggest spike in TDs, especially in the red zone.
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